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What will programming look like in 2020? (2012)

139 pointsby slbttyover 3 years ago

23 comments

junonover 3 years ago
<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;lambda-the-ultimate.org&#x2F;node&#x2F;4655#comment-73772" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;lambda-the-ultimate.org&#x2F;node&#x2F;4655#comment-73772</a><p>&gt; ... the beginnings of intelligent ... assistants in our IDEs ... specialize (sic) in ... C&#x2F;C++, Java, Mobile. They will have intimate knowledge of common APIs ... trained on tens of thousands of code projects pulled from the open repositories across the web (google code, github, bitbucket,...). In addition to having &#x27;read&#x27; more orders of magnitude more code then any human could in a lifetime, they will also have rudimentary ability to extract programmer intent, and organizational patterns from code. ... The computer automatically bringing up example code snippets, suggesting references to existing functionality that could be reused.<p>This person (Marc DeRosa) predicted Github Copilot within a margin of one year. Incredible.
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Micolothover 3 years ago
The “ Some safe and some bold predictions” comment is almost exactly my view on how programming should evolve. (functional, reactive, going toward dependent types etc ) Interesting how in 2012 it was already so clear!<p>I think mostly we do have gone in that direction, even if probably even slower than the (already cautious) commenter predicted.<p>Honest question: why are we as a community so slow at evolving a good, solid programming environment?<p>I get that each time a new language is introduced, porting over all the existing code + training the people is an immense task. But this is _exactly the problem_, right?<p>Why aren’t we able to stop for a while and sort out once and for all a solid framework for coding?<p>It’s not a theoretical ideal: I’m very convinced that the dumb piling up of technologies&#x2F;languages&#x2F;frameworks that we use now is significantly slowing down the _actual daily work_ we do of producing software. Definitely &gt;&gt;50% of my time as a programmer is spent on accidental complexity, that i know for sure.<p>It’s very practical: at this point this whole thing simply feels like very bad engineering, tbh?
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Machaover 3 years ago
For a mere 8 year timeframe, the predictions seem rather poor. It feels like there was such a push among people to have the forward thinking ideas that they overestimated how much would change.<p>Looking back, the biggest changes between now and 2012 are:<p>* Git (and github) took over the world in the version control. Git was already the leader in 2012, but mercurial was doing ok and svn was still around to a much greater extent.<p>* Docker&#x2F;Kubernetes and the container ecosystem. There was a guess here about app servers, but the poster seemed to thinking of PaaS platforms and Java app servers like Jetty more so. I guess you could say &quot;serverless&quot; is sort of in that vein, but it&#x27;s far from the majority of use cases as the poster predicted.<p>* Functional programming ideas became mainstream, except in Go, which is a sort of reactionary back to basics language.<p>Overall though:<p>Good predictions:<p>* The IDE&#x2F;editor space gets a shake up, though maybe not in the way any of the specific predictions guessed (the rise of VS code)<p>* Machine learning gets bigger<p>* Apple introduces a new language to replace Objective-C<p>* Some sort of middle ground to the dynamic&#x2F;static divide (static languages have got local type inference, dynamic languages have got optional typing)<p>Bad predictions:<p>* No-code tools are still no further along mainstream adoption than 2012<p>* Various predictions that Lisp&#x2F;ML&#x2F;Haskell get more mainstream rather than just having their most accessible ideas cherry picked.<p>* A new development in version control displaces git<p>* DSLs, DSLs everywhere. DSLs for app development, DSLs for standard cross database NoSQL access,
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dangover 3 years ago
A couple small threads from back then:<p><i>What will programming look like in 2020?</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=4962694" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=4962694</a> - Dec 2012 (3 comments)<p><i>Ask HN: What will programming look like in 2020?</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=4931774" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=4931774</a> - Dec 2012 (12 comments)
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hardwaregeekover 3 years ago
The App Servers prediction is actually a lot more accurate than I first thought:<p>&gt; You&#x27;ll abstract most applications with a DSL, structured of applets or formlets operating on an abstract client API. The same app can then be &#x27;compiled&#x27; and served to multiple mediums - as a web-page, an android app, a Chrome app, or even a desktop app.<p>This is effectively React with Electron, React Native, etc. Of course the author was overly optimistic about how polished and effective cross platform apps would be, but it&#x27;s still the same idea. React is a UI DSL with a reactive runtime that can run on many different platforms.
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Spinnaker_over 3 years ago
Off topic, but is there a new site that replaced lambda-the-ultimate? It&#x27;s such an amazing source of PL discussion... but mainly from 10 years ago.
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Shoetpover 3 years ago
&gt; At a guess, people will use something with: - Strong tooling and libraries - An accessible type system - Deterministic memory behaviour - By-default strict evaluation - Commercial backing Every mainstream functional language is lacking in at least one of these areas.<p>This user casually predicted Rust.
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Turing_Machineover 3 years ago
Server has apparently fallen over. Wayback Machine link:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20210925211554&#x2F;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;lambda-the-ultimate.org&#x2F;node&#x2F;4655" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20210925211554&#x2F;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;lambda-the...</a><p>P.S. these are predictions made in 2012 of what 2020 was going to be like.
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zz865over 3 years ago
The reality is programming has taken a back seat while everyone spends all their time on containerization, k8s, cloud security and keeping up with what&#x27;s hot right now.
midwestemoover 3 years ago
&gt;What will programming look like in 2020?<p>It will be a complete shit.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;lambda-the-ultimate.org&#x2F;node&#x2F;4655#comment-73750" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;lambda-the-ultimate.org&#x2F;node&#x2F;4655#comment-73750</a>
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mellingover 3 years ago
“HCI-ware (and wear)<p>While increasing heterogeneous and concurrent architectures will certainly impact languages and frameworks (and there is much progress there already, e.g. to leverage clouds or GPUs), I&#x27;m more interested in how things like Project Glass, LEAP motion, Emotiv, and Touché might impact programming. Project Glass could provide pervasive access to eye-cams, voice, and HUD feedback. Something like that would be a suitable basis for pen and paper programming, or card-based programming, or various alternatives that involve laying out objects in the real world and clarifying with voice (perhaps non-speech voice).”<p>still no progress on this. Keyboard and mouse.<p>Minority Report is almost 20 years old.<p>i had high hopes for Project Soli:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;atap.google.com&#x2F;soli&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;atap.google.com&#x2F;soli&#x2F;</a>
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cortesoftover 3 years ago
One person predicted the AI IDE assistance. They were right that it is here, although I don’t think it is very accepted yet.<p>No one mentioned containers or anything related.
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quickthrower2over 3 years ago
Predictably…’s prediction is basically Rust?
FridgeSealover 3 years ago
&gt; how the hardware will evolve: several (4-16) heterogeneous(not all with the same performance, some with specialized function unit) CPUs<p>Isn’t this basically the architecture of the Apple M1 chips? They’ve got efficient cores and high-power cores.
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CawCawCawover 3 years ago
It is interesting to read some of these comments as an indication of what people actually hoped for, and then compare it to the reality of what they actually got.
pharmakomover 3 years ago
Programming changes at human speed because it requires programmers to learn.<p>Maybe in 10 more years we will all be writing in ML-family languages!
RcouF1uZ4gsCover 3 years ago
Rust in 2021 is basically the functional programming language this commenter was predicting:<p>&gt; I predict that functional programming will continue to gain ground as people discover the benefits of immutability and easy parallelism—but the functional language will not be Haskell, nor Scala, nor Clojure. At a guess, people will use something with:<p>&gt;Strong tooling and libraries<p>&gt;An accessible type system<p>&gt;Deterministic memory behaviour<p>&gt;By-default strict evaluation<p>&gt;Commercial backing<p>&gt;Every mainstream functional language is lacking in at least one of these areas.
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adenozineover 3 years ago
Link seems busted for me...
Cryptonicover 3 years ago
I read a lot of comments there, basically the devs back then did not know it, but they hoped for Docker and it&#x27;s applications, for Rust, some for Node =)
plastmanover 3 years ago
almost excusively javascript frameworks
daxfohlover 3 years ago
Nobody predicted GDPR or the need for multicloud.<p>Wonder what the big new grunt work for 2030 will be.
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blippageover 3 years ago
I had a play around with Logo the other day. In the end I decided to dive too deeply into it, but I came away thinking that there is basically nothing wrong with the language. It was invented in 1967. 1965! Yet it has everything &quot;there&quot;. I think there&#x27;s even a university professor who teaches Logo to undergraduates, too, claiming it is much better than Pascal.<p>Pascal. That could be used as a systems programming language. Maybe it&#x27;s not perfect - C++ wins when it comes to resource management - but that doesn&#x27;t mean it&#x27;s unfixable. Just fix the bits you don&#x27;t like. Sorted.<p>I could go on: Dylan, Ada, even Basic. They all &quot;work&quot;. We&#x27;ve been inventing language after language after language, and yet all the key ideas were already there.<p>Now, it&#x27;s true, many are lacking the kinds of libraries we want. And most of these languages don&#x27;t receive the love they need to smooth over the rough edges that have programmers reaching for the more popular languages.<p>Let us now consider programming languages that can be programmed graphically. These kinds of tools get announced with great hype, only to be ignored when everyone realises that it&#x27;s more fuss that it&#x27;s worth.<p>And yet, it&#x27;s maybe not a complete wash. NodeRed looked practical, and Scratch seemed to have a place. In principle, the whole idea that a program can be viewed as a schematic has appeal.<p>Then there&#x27;s the &quot;MX&quot; tool for STM32 MCUs (microcontrollers). It can used to configure the pins and peripherals of your MCU. I hated it at first, but now I&#x27;m seeing its advantage at simplifying configuration, even if it does spew out a ton of stuff.<p>One thing about MX is that it &quot;understands&quot; the chip, so it knows about conflicts of pins and the limitations of the chip. The key thing here is that it&#x27;s a metatool, a kind of Domain Specific &quot;Language&quot; (although it&#x27;s actually graphical). It can achieve something that general-purpose languages can&#x27;t. There&#x27;s no magic here, of course, the MX only understands the chips because it has been programmed to.<p>MX is completely useless for making things like database applications, for example.<p>So DSLs &#x2F;can&#x2F; work - maybe - but they tend to suffer from the same problems as graphical programming tools. They are also niche products, so they don&#x27;t tend to get much interest. They also tend to suffer from the problem of &quot;walled gardens&quot; - whereby anticipated things are trivial, but unanticipated things are impossible.<p>One of my own ideas is a kind of &quot;compilation language&quot;. It would be a language, possibly a subset of a larger language, in which you could give developers something that &quot;understands&quot; their problem domain. I&#x27;m thinking something along the lines of C++&#x27;s notion of &quot;constexpr all the things&quot;. Perhaps we could push this idea so far that we could build a set of libraries that the compiler itself executes and can validate other developer code.
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tardibearover 3 years ago
2012
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