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Eliezer Yudkowsky: Is That Your True Rejection?

164 pointsby kfover 13 years ago

14 comments

DanielBMarkhamover 13 years ago
Interestingly enough, my own small-l libertarianism has nothing to do with the innate properties of people. It's about how those properties come together into groups. I have found, again and again, that when people organize into large groups and form systems of getting along it never works. The larger the group, the more complex the system, the longer the system has been in place, the worst the results are. I don't think there is any intervention, nature or nurture, that would change this. To feel otherwise, to me, would be to say that there is a perfect person. That seems more than a little scary. I find our defects, when working together, give us adaptability. Counter-intuitively, I believe that the properties most of us would desire in a population are probably reverse-correlated to growth and evolution. [insert long explanation about the value of variance across multiple dimensions here]<p>Representative democracies are kind of a hack to this law. You try to pick somebody to represent you and make decisions, you split up powers among various competing branches of government, etc. What is happening in the west, though, is the idea of a "restart" is mostly gone. It's just the same guys wearing different hats that take turns ruling.<p>But to me these are properties of how systems of people operate. The word "government" has little to do with it. The reason to fight as hard as possible for individual freedom has nothing to do with selfishness: the more freedom the individual retains, the less the stakes are, and the slower the process of system corruption becomes. My ultimate rejection would be a demonstration of a stable, creative, dynamic, adaptive, and productively chaotic society of non-trivial size that had been in existence for more than a century or so. Hate to set the bar that high. Need to think about that some more to see if I could make my position more logically approachable.
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tokenadultover 13 years ago
I'm not sure if Eliezer (who participates here) has seen either of the links below before.<p><a href="http://people.virginia.edu/~ent3c/papers2/Articles%20for%20Online%20CV/Turkheimer%20(2008).pdf" rel="nofollow">http://people.virginia.edu/~ent3c/papers2/Articles%20for%20O...</a><p><a href="http://people.virginia.edu/~ent3c/papers2/Articles%20for%20Online%20CV/Johnson%20(2009).pdf" rel="nofollow">http://people.virginia.edu/~ent3c/papers2/Articles%20for%20O...</a><p>I post these links to HN from time to time, because they are from top-notch authors on heritability research and join issue directly with a very common misconception about what heritability figures show about human behavioral traits. Simply put, whatever the numerical figure is for heritability of this or that human behavioral trait says NOTHING about how malleable (changeable or controllable by environment) the trait is. Let me be clear: all human behavioral characteristics are heritable, with heritabilities above the theoretical minimum of 0 and always strictly less than the theoretical maximum of 1. But no matter what the calculated heritability is of a specific trait, we know NOTHING about how subject that trait is to change under the influence of carefully planned environmental interventions. That is a separate line of investigation, not logically or factually related at all to the heritability calculated by the usual methodologies in studies of correlations of traits among closely related and less closely related individuals. The references provide more details.<p>From the article: "When I ask myself this question, I think my actual political views would change primarily with my beliefs about how likely government interventions are in practice to do more harm than good. I think my libertarianism rests chiefly on the empirical proposition—a factual belief which is either false or true, depending on how the universe actually works—that 90% of the time you have a bright idea like 'offer government mortgage guarantees so that more people can own houses,' someone will somehow manage to screw it up, or there’ll be side effects you didn’t think about, and most of the time you’ll end up doing more harm than good, and the next time won’t be much different from the last time." Similarly, my views on politics and economics are heavily influenced by real-world experience, particularly the real-world experience of living in Taiwan, and visiting Hong Kong and China, in the early 1980s when those three culturally similar areas lived under very different government policies. Government policies make a difference. Actuality trumps theory in political science and economics.
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mkopinskyover 13 years ago
The article he's responding to is at <a href="http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/09/06/michael-shermer/liberty-and-science/" rel="nofollow">http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/09/06/michael-shermer/liber...</a>
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nazgulnarsilover 13 years ago
There is variance within the libertarian community and this confuses a lot of people. The many viewpoints are united by a respect for contract law and property rights. The main split is down to people who believe these two things are an ethical imperative and those who believe them to be pragmatically optimal. Many believe in a jumbled mix of the two. That is, they are a little shaky on the differences between normative and positive statements, and thus have difficulty clarifying their position.
carbocationover 13 years ago
In a community where everyone is genetically and epigenetically identical, variance attributable to additive genetic factors (heritability) is zero.<p>In a community where everyone is genetically diverse but their living and work situations are exactly identical (a very hard scenario to imagine), all variance is attributable to genetic factors. (The heritability is potentially 1, but since the definition of heritability is that it pertains to additive genetic factors, it may not be 1 in this case.)<p>A few things flow from this.<p>The first is that population-level estimates of heritability may change over time, even if only because environments change, sometimes wildly, over time.<p>The second is that estimates of heritability for one population may not tell you about another population, and the population-level estimate itself is a blend of the community-level constituent values. (Even when you derive your estimates from twin studies, you can imagine how this is true.)<p>The third is that even if you drive heritability to 1 because you have made everyone's environment uniformly awesome, this does not mean that you cannot make everyone's environment even more awesome and thereby increase productivity/output/whatever. Say that Trait X is one's "widget production ability." If Trait X's <i>variability</i> is now 100% genetic, it does not at all follow that Trait X's <i>mean</i> cannot be increased by changing the environment. (It merely follows that Trait X's variance, not its mean, is currently completely explained by genetic differences.)<p>The fourth is that with substantial state intervention, you can probably manipulate the heritability of any human behavioral trait to whatever value you want it to be, given enough dedication of resources and willingness to flout norms.
ChuckMcMover 13 years ago
I found the concept of being 'logically rude' insightful. I have been on both sides of that.
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gueloover 13 years ago
I always find it weird about libertarians how they're so skeptical of big institutions in the form of government but don't seem to worry about big institutions in the form of corporations when it is obvious to everyone how dysfunctional big corps can get. And how much damage big corporations can do. The magical belief in the "free market" fairy is incredibly naive. Anyone that has ever run genetic algorithms knows how easy it is for even a moderately complicated system to get stuck in obviously inefficient local maxima. A nation's economy is much more complicated.
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flourpowerover 13 years ago
I think he should have treated the set of all government actions with more granularity. Imagine that you partitioned that set into two subsets. The first subset would be actions on policy issues that libertarians find it necessary for governments to act on. The second subset would be actions on policy issues that they don't think it's necessary for governments to act on. It could simultaneously be true that 99% of actions in the second subset will tend to have bad results and only 1% of actions in the first subset will have bad results depending on the relative size of the sets. If you're not clear about which subset you're talking about, you'll get people saying things like "you must be wrong that most government policies have a bad results, this country (that mostly performs actions in the first subset) tends to have very good results."
aufreak3over 13 years ago
For reference - Eliezer's Dec 2008 post on this - <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/wj/is_that_your_true_rejection/" rel="nofollow">http://lesswrong.com/lw/wj/is_that_your_true_rejection/</a>
wyboover 13 years ago
A very thoughtful article, especially the notion of something being ones true reason, and variance as causal impact, but isn't what he describes as libertarianism with a small 'l', what has been known as the Social Democrat way in Europe for decades...; only have the state be involved in those things where the market and other societal provisions (charity, etc.) fail. Not much new here, except for the content of it being quite reasonable... :)
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araneaeover 13 years ago
Interesting perspective, but it does ignore <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balancing_selection" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balancing_selection</a>. It's possible that a certain amount of variation in the population is kept around through evolutionary processes.<p>On the whole, though, I do agree that humans are basically the same.
doomlaserover 13 years ago
The hospital example he ends with is strange. It's my understanding that under libertarian philosophy, children would not have access to <i>any</i> care in that society unless their parents happened to be able to afford it.
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danielsonover 13 years ago
"Over to you, Carter." <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEegK7Df1tQ" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEegK7Df1tQ</a>
nknightover 13 years ago
I think the main problem I have with this is that it's not internally consistent. He talks about the evolution of a complex system by incremental improvements, but apparently maintains the libertarian instinct of "This is broken, throw it out." instead of "This is broken, how do we improve it?". There are an enormous number of governance models that have never been seriously tried on a large scale. There is no fundamental reason to believe that the libertarian value of "shut it all down" is going to produce better results than any of the other possible models.
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