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Don't forget Microsoft

429 pointsby SamvitJover 3 years ago

67 comments

blip54321over 3 years ago
I feel like the elephant in the room is culture.<p>* Facebook seems to be a bunch of smart people working on pet projects. Monopoly profits drive a political empire where people at the top think up something random, and it gets built.<p>* Google has customer contempt. They started with brilliant people who were used to being smarter than everyone else. They also started in algorithm-driven markets like search and ad-words, where everything was statistical and individuals didn&#x27;t matter. They&#x27;ve lost the smarts and the ethics, and they&#x27;re in a bit of a hole. I think they&#x27;ve reached the end of the growth line.<p>* I know nothing about Apple. Too secretive.<p>* Microsoft has a bunch of cut-throat teams, competing with each other. Their technology is middling. However, they&#x27;re the only one of the bunch you&#x27;d want to partner with for B2B.<p>* ... except for Amazon, which is hyper-customer-focused, and has a track record of successful forward-looking projects. AWS has been rock solid. On the other hand, I&#x27;d never want to work there; they treat employees like crap. But it somehow works out for them.
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logshipperover 3 years ago
This is a good and thorough article. The author got down to brass tacks pretty quickly and brings up interesting hypothesis about $MSFT.<p>That said, I do have one gripe:<p>&gt; To oversimplify Notion to its demographics, it is Office 365 for people below age 35.<p>I recognize this is an oversimplification, but even so, it seems like a stretch. Notion is a decent product, and I have used it for a few small-scale team projects in uni (mainly for Kanban-related stuff) - but to call it a replacement for O365 is an exaggeration at best.<p>Yes, you can have pretty, nested documents in Notion and that&#x27;s great, but a tabular database in Notion is by no means a replacement for Excel or even Google Sheets. The velocity that is afforded by Excel in terms of formulas is unmatched and there&#x27;s a reason it has yet to be unseated as the kingpin of modern finance.<p>Most young people I know use a combination of Discord + Google Suite to collaborate. I am aware this is slightly anecdotal, but I am also having a hard time imagining myself as a founder and then asking my CFO to use Notion to prepare investor pitches.<p>Source: Am 23 :)
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tegeekover 3 years ago
For me, as a developer, Microsoft is a company with deep roots in compilers and operating systems. All of the business empire started from these two foundations. Since its inception till today, Microsoft has been producing some global products every decade. And then making these products unbeatable in the global marketes. Be it Windows, Office, Exchange, Developer tools &amp; Compilers, Web Servers, XBox, Azure, Teams etc. You just name it and Microsoft is right there in almost every field with profitable products. A lot of people don&#x27;t like the traditional Microsoft products but all of the products just work and are being used for tens of millions of customers around the globe every day. Any Software company with ability to create profitable products every decade is a killer company. That is the secret souce Microsoft has.<p>As a developer just imagine about a company which gives you a developer tool to make a web application, using the company&#x27;s provided compiler, which then can be deployed on a company&#x27;s provided webserver and can store some data on company&#x27;s provided database which is running on company&#x27;s provided operating system.<p>The company also happens to provide end-to-end tools for running a company of a 5 people to a company of 500,000 people.<p>This is Microsoft.
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robertwt7over 3 years ago
&gt; No singular power law product defines Microsoft like Google’s Search, Apple’s iPhone, Amazon’s e-commerce, or Facebook’s social network.<p>Umm windows and office?<p>Great article, I still think that with thousands of amazing engineers in microsoft, they need to simplify 2 things. Focus on using 1 thing, then reiterate to make it better, i.e: why is there teams and skype? then there&#x27;s teams for business, teams for personal, skype for business. Also teams app is built on angular instead of xamarin? I heard that teams of engineers within MS are free to choose any tech that they want. If they had chosen xamarin since the beginning (now MAUI), wouldn&#x27;t it made xamarin much less buggy? It seems like every teams are going on different directions with different managements. you don&#x27;t see that on apple (pushing swift everywhere), facebook is also using react for almost all their internal apps.<p>Second thing is it&#x27;s so hard to make your voice heard in MS that most people just gave up lol. I have this bluetooth issue on windows 11 where my bluetooth speaker produce no sound after receiving call from teams. I have to reconnect every couple of hours. I&#x27;ve had it for 4 months, and I don&#x27;t know where to give feedback at all (feedback hub is useless) other than asking strangers on reddit. If you have 96k engineers around the world, can&#x27;t you assign at least 5-6 PM that focuses on consumer satisfaction, engineering excellence, or at least have a bug bash once in a while.<p>Again i&#x27;m not sure what&#x27;s happening inside the company, maybe i&#x27;m to judgy, but at this point a lot of people are feeling the same way
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tempnow987over 3 years ago
For a company that had a dude yelling Developers on stage - how in the world did they blow their dev stack so badly?<p>XAML, WPF, UWP, silverlight etc etc.<p>They owned with WinForms back in the day. There was nothing close to market share &#x2F; productivity for LOB apps. Then it was like they just dynamited repeatedly, and kept on dynamiting?<p>I can&#x27;t even imagine the wasted dev cycles, and now the wasted time using janky juddering online apps (even Vax&#x2F;VMS green screen LOB apps were actually FASTER -&gt; keyboard driven, no lag). If you tracked medical billing from vax&#x2F;vms days (a fast typist could crank through billing slips and a tech forward clinical staff could checkin a patient and go with a few keyboard keys (including the good old F keys)). Now its wait wait wait, mouse click, mouse move, click, wait type, submit, wait.
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mrkramerover 3 years ago
Microsoft&#x27;s biggest failure was Windows Mobile. If they got Mobile right hands down they would be on a highway to $10T company but otherwise they are riding the wave of cloud, AI and gaming. Like Steve Jobs[0] said they are strong opportunists, they have no taste, they don&#x27;t have original ideas and they don&#x27;t bring much culture into their product but they keep on coming. Microsoft uses its big cash pile to either acquire companies or to copy them.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=KSg3fU9XWow" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=KSg3fU9XWow</a>
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blibbleover 3 years ago
&gt; It is not a beloved consumer brand like Apple, Facebook, Amazon, or Google.<p>the reason for this is very simple: very few people choose to use Microsoft products willingly (except maybe the xbox)<p>their products either come with the computer by default or it&#x27;s installed on your work machine<p>and the software is at the very best mediocre and somehow getting worse (trying to figure out how to save a Word document locally these days is NOT easy)<p>[1]: even for the original xbox Microsoft initially deliberately kept their name off of it
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mongolover 3 years ago
At the large retailer I work for, AWS is off limits. Strategically, they don&#x27;t want to base their IT operations in a cloud of a company that is also a competitor in online retail. I can understand that. Here Azure has a great advantage.
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civilizedover 3 years ago
Does anyone else find it boring to kibitz on how an absurdly powerful company could become more powerful?<p>Wouldn&#x27;t it be more interesting for Microsoft to actually improve its products, e.g. stop Excel making a nearly irrevocable assumption that something is a date just because it has two numbers and a hyphen between them? Make a successor to MS Access that doesn&#x27;t suck? Fix the shitshow that is figures, tables, and cross references in Word? Make a nice new product inspired by FOSS projects that are way ahead of them, or failing that, at least some decent craftsmanship on existing products?<p>At some point, doesn&#x27;t the endless lust for monopoly power become boring? Why not just actually do a good job at the thing your company is supposed to be about?<p>How many yachts do Satya and the MS board of directors need? Why not do something beautiful instead? Who needs to spend their life replaying the modern equivalent of an ambitious feudal lord?
thorwawayrus53over 3 years ago
Dont&#x27; forget *its* Microsoft.<p>Github never asked for login until Microsoft acquired it.<p>Broken windows help page. Try installing drivers and navigate to knowledge base.<p>When some thing does not work on windows you reboot and hope it works or just reinstall operating system.<p>Try tweaking all the settings in visual studio only to be reset on the next update<p>You have no control over updates. It happens especially when you want to give presentation. Also you can not poweroff whenever you like, because it chooses when the update should happen. No amount of changing setting can fix this.<p>These are few problems.<p>Don&#x27;t forget *its* Microsoft. It won&#x27;t change.
foobarianover 3 years ago
Can Microsoft please make a Windows phone after all? Both Apple and Android ecosystems and hardware together are terrible in various ways and don&#x27;t work well with Windows.
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zuminatorover 3 years ago
The one idea I question here is advising Microsoft to acquire Zoom. Microsoft has almost as bad a track record with chat&#x2F;videocall apps as it does with cell phones. Plus, Zoom has perhaps already seen its best days. It was in the right place in the right time, but the public is fickle. If Apple ever gets around to putting enterprise features into FaceTime, the entire product space will be disrupted with unpredictable results. Better I think for Microsoft to spend a couple of billion at figuring out what went wrong with Skype (free hint: reliability and call quality) than to throw $150b at Zoom and just repeat the same mistakes. BTW Microsoft, why does your Skype website still feature a &quot;Shang-Chi&quot; movie tie-in? Is anybody paying attention to keeping your landing pages up to date?
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urthorover 3 years ago
&quot;It is not a beloved consumer brand like Apple, Facebook, Amazon, or Google.&quot;<p>They&#x27;re not a beloved consumer brand, yet.<p>Microsoft has made an enormous investment in consumer and developer sentiment.<p>VS Code, Microsoft Flight Simulator, WSL, and Xbox are huge, long term plays that are a rocket ship in their brand&#x27;s sentiment.
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gumbyover 3 years ago
I was on the board of a company with a product offering on Azure (because one big customer used AZ for part of their stack). Expanding outside was tough: few prospects were interested as few used Azure (and we had a lot of uptime issues with Azure). This was in 2020 and 2021. The devs complained but porting to AWS saved the product.<p>MS has a nice lock in with the big companies’ IT departments, which gave them nice recurring revenue but pointed their attention away from where the puck was going several times (most notably missing the Internet and missing phones and BYOD).<p>They are huge, but in my technical life I was never really exposed to them (except Excel and some Powerpoint). That’s why this board experience was such a surprise to me.
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ncmncmover 3 years ago
What the article misses is the essential core: Microsoft is the Big Evil. Only Google really competes in that space. The others might like to compete, but Apple is too stand-offish, Amazon too random, Facebook too inept, Russia too old.<p>Microsoft and Google are always on the lookout for the next bigger Evil. Google eagerly sheds anything that turns out not to be It. Microsoft is slower at that, not giving up as easily, and often late to the party, but sometimes things finally work out for them better than could have been expected (Xbox). The goal is literal World Domination, and odds are one or the other will achieve it. Younger generations won&#x27;t even remember when they didn&#x27;t already have it, or be able to imagine a world where they don&#x27;t.
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excaliburover 3 years ago
&gt; Even to avid Silicon Valley historians, Microsoft is hard to define succinctly. No singular power law product defines Microsoft like Google’s Search, Apple’s iPhone, Amazon’s e-commerce, or Facebook’s social network.<p>Are you kidding me? Why can&#x27;t or won&#x27;t you admit it&#x27;s Windows? What did MS do to you?
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lbrinerover 3 years ago
I think 90% of the time I use MS products, I am happy enough but there are some things that definitely would make them suck less:<p>* Sort out the single-sign on thing as others have said. Why do I have to tell you whether my account is work or personal? Why do you let me have 2 accounts for the same email address anyway?<p>* Endless tinkering with things like menus, control-panel settings (usually takes me 10 seconds to find the &quot;Apps option&quot;, mostly pointless eye candy like in Windows 11 when most people would rather you just fixed the myriad of minor bugs that have never been fixed<p>* A proper support system, not just 1000s of call-centre types telling you to trying re-installing windows<p>* As a dev, not always making massive changed in .Net before sorting out the bugs they introduce far to easily. An example, I recently updated an MS extensions library and because they had added a load more constructors to a class, my dependency injection started failing but, of course, there were no obvious helpful errors.<p>* They have never sorted out the licensing. It is horrifically complicated and very expensive and would be easy enough to fix if they cared. Yes, we get that you are trying to make sure we don&#x27;t avoid licensing by purchasing large multi-core machines or using VMs but you could do a better job<p>* Harmonising their hundreds of customer-facing sites like MSDN, Bizspark, Outlook, Office 365, Product Feedback etc. Even the design is all over the place but in some places you can login with the &quot;wrong&quot; account and it still lets you into a new account. Not cool. If I used the wrong login, tell me it isn&#x27;t registered so I can find the correct one.<p>On the other hand, I do like their more open culture and you are more likely now to have a conversation on github with real devs who can explain some of those crazy choices they might have made.
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wglbover 3 years ago
What most analysis if Microsoft misses, and I think this one does as well, is that Microsoft is mostly not an innovator. What they have always excelled at is execution. They were late to the internet, phones, and now the cloud. But given their foothold (in the IBM days, this used to be called Account Control, but we don&#x27;t whisper that anymore). So when it was clear that cloud was the thing, they came up with Azure, and as usual, are executing on this very well.<p>Because of this, I don&#x27;t think it is a good example for startups to follow. I think that successful startups are innovators.
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reilly3000over 3 years ago
I think this is a really solid analysis and strategy. I want to briefly expound on the data side which is a huge growth area: mSFT would do well to SHOW the rank and file analyst and developer machine learning in context of their daily work, not TELL CEOs about its transformational possibilities. They own the world’s most popular surface for interacting with data. Why not make Azure’s machine learning be keystrokes away? Give away credits and training, suggest use cases, provide actual value. Sell a $0.000000000001&#x2F;unit cost that makes it safe for anyone to try in their daily work. It doesn’t need to do much, some cool forecasting, predicting the value of the next cell inline, etc would be delightful. I’m a but disconnected from their ecosystem at this point but I see a window where the can captivate the long tail with pragmatic ML and assert their centrality for the coming decades.
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tester756over 3 years ago
&gt;Acquiring Replit is also worth exploring given its strong positioning among young developers who are still malleable.<p>Microsoft already has top compiler &#x2F; programming language &#x2F; tooling engineers &#x2F; people<p>Why would the need Replit? Is the product good? Why not JetBrains?
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rafaleover 3 years ago
&quot;There&#x27;s a horse in Redmond that always suits up and always runs, and will keep running.&quot; - Tim &quot;Apple&quot; Cook
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AtlasBarfedover 3 years ago
&quot;No singular power law product&quot;<p>Uh, what?<p>1) owned x86 OSs for... 40 years and counting<p>2) office<p>I&#x27;m not MS historian, but those two effective monopolies (the first was leveraged for the second) have been the core of MS profits for decades.<p>Basically-free windows as I understand it fueled Azure to the third pillar only in the last... 5 years?
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AlexanderTheGr8over 3 years ago
&gt; As the surface area of new software markets plateaus, tech will transition towards a consolidation era.<p>Do you think this is true? We are seeing more tech companies than ever before. But that could just be due to the pandemic and insanely high amount of money in the market.<p>If consolidation happens, innovation will plummet. This always happens. Any oil-based company hasn&#x27;t innovated in 20 years. Most of the consolidated industries have little or no innovation.<p>As any product gets more complicated, consolidation does happen and innovation does plummet.<p>Think: 1) Web browsers: Ruled by Google and Safari now (+ Firefox so HN won&#x27;t be offended, although they have 3.6% and it&#x27;s going to keep declining over time). We have not seen any innovation in browsers in such a long time. 2) Operating Systems: Windows, Mac, and Linux haven&#x27;t really done anything new in the last 5 years. Win+Mac just keep adding more &quot;telemetry&quot;, but no innovation 3) Cloud: it&#x27;s obviously really complex. It&#x27;s consolidated. It&#x27;s innovating today, but seeing the trajectory of browsers, OS and other products, innovation will stagnate there as well.<p>Should we just take it for granted that tech is supposed to be consolidated?<p>New fields in tech like crypto, mobile are still very active but are they also just moving towards consolidation?
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mupuff1234over 3 years ago
Doesn&#x27;t windows have an ~80% market share in desktop os? Is it really less of a monopoly than other big tech?
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phkahlerover 3 years ago
Microsoft is only relevant to me because my employer hasn&#x27;t noticed all our needs can be met by cloud services and Libreoffice. Seriously, if there were ever a time for Linux on the desktop it&#x27;s now - in the office.
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mushufasaover 3 years ago
Interesting article on Microsoft. But: in what world are they forgotten??
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quickthrower2over 3 years ago
Hindsight is 20x20, but Microsoft share price has increased about 5 fold in 5 years, while only doubling the 5 years before that. It had to play a bit of catch up with other FAANG type companies.
ourmandaveover 3 years ago
<i>Microsoft may have too many internal competing interests to recognize that it has become the Azure company, but it should be clear by the late 2020s.</i><p>Any divisions that yell &quot;Developers!&quot; at events already know this. The rest are probably aware.<p>My only problem is how everything is going to subscription based pricing and requires a cloud account.
barrkelover 3 years ago
This is a prescription for a complete lack of focus. For an article that theorizes that execution takes a second seat to riding an S curve, there&#x27;s not a lot of focus on acquisitions that aim at another S curve. Instead, it focuses on a somewhat odd competitive advantage - antitrust - and considers scattering bets all over mostly on the basis of demographics.<p>$10T is treated like a target which is naturally good. But so many acquisitions would be financed in significant part by stock swaps, so all you&#x27;re doing is getting to the $10T by agglomeration rather than growth.<p>It&#x27;s a fun business strategy essay but I didn&#x27;t find a compelling strategy and the sustainable competitive &quot;advantage&quot; is odd, because it only empowers agglomeration instead of growth and actual competition. Needs more focus on why the agglomeration would be more efficient.
mkaufmanover 3 years ago
Author doesn&#x27;t give Ballmer enough credit. Ballmer built out Microsoft&#x27;s enterprise business - primarily SQL Server, Exchange. Not only did this give Microsoft deep in-roads into enterprises (as author notes), but it gave microsoft insight into just how fast AWS was growing.<p>The rumor is Ballmer saw the rapidly growing license fees being paid by Amazon for running Windows Server and SQL Server. When he didn&#x27;t see enough traction being made on cloud initiatives, he replaced Bob Muglia (then head of the Microsoft&#x27;s Server and Tools Division) with Satya Nadella.
poloteover 3 years ago
&gt; Undoubtedly, Nadella has been an exceptional CEO.<p>&gt; With the right strategy and execution, Microsoft can become the first $10T company.What would I do if I were running the company?<p>I guess unfortunately they don&#x27;t have OP has a CEO
mark_l_watsonover 3 years ago
Even though I moved on from using Windows years ago, I am still a happy Microsoft customer. My wife and I really like the Office 365 family plan. She likes having up to date Word on her MacBook, and we both like the OneDrive cloud storage for backups. A very good deal.<p>I don’t know if they still do this, but about ten years ago I got accepted I in the BizSpark program and was given $150&#x2F;month for three years to start a business. I ended up giving that up in a year, but really appreciated the support and thought it was a clever way to get people on Azure.
anothernewdudeover 3 years ago
Having been stuck using Azure due to client&#x27;s poor decision making, I can honestly say Microsoft need major changes before it comes close to gain support from developers at large.<p>Number 1 should be documentation that accurately reflects the state of Azure services and tools. I should not be expected to translate names of things, or figure where things have moved since the documentation was last updated. Nor should I have to figure out the &quot;microsoft way&quot; of doing things. They should be simple, not needlessly obfuscated.<p>Resource groups is amazing though.
alexklarkover 3 years ago
Microsoft is a legal &amp; sales company. Not a tech, not a marketing, not gaming. They can sell condoms and every corporation CIO will eventually get microsoft condoms operation manager user license for every employee, a million dollars pack of condom server, as well as condom office and will ensure that payment to Microsoft is most important task of his company and that users should suffer and waste as much time as possible. I don’t know how they do it. It must be a deal with the devil. Or they are weasels &amp; bribers company.
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Fnoordover 3 years ago
&gt; Without a clear growth driver, Microsoft went on the defensive against the rest of FAMGA in the late 2000s: Bing, Skype, Surface, and Windows Phone were reactive moves.<p>Eh, Surface shouldn&#x27;t be in this list, its from the 2010-2020 decade:<p>&gt; Microsoft first announced Surface at an event on June 18, 2012, presented by former CEO Steve Ballmer in Milk Studios Los Angeles. Surface was the first major initiative by Microsoft to integrate its Windows operating system with its own hardware, and is the first PC designed and distributed solely by Microsoft. [1]<p>Zune, however, belongs to this list. Along with a plethora of other products. They were each ways (or &#x27;hobby projects&#x27;) to move profits from Windows&#x2F;Office in different markets. Many of these failed, or had only marginal success at best.<p>Windows Phone is just the (failed) successor of Windows Mobile. It was an attempt to develop a capacitive touch-based OS and range of devices (Lumia) but it flopped because of two dominant market players with no market share gained.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Microsoft_Surface" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Microsoft_Surface</a>
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101008over 3 years ago
I really enjoyed this article. Can someone recommend a book about Microsoft history? I&#x27;d love to read about the internal through the ages...
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irrationalover 3 years ago
I’m somewhat surprised Azure is doing that well. I work for a Fortune 500 company. Before jumping on the cloud computing bandwagon we examined the AWS, Azure, Google, etc. and settled on AWS. So far we have been very happy with AWS.
kodemagerover 3 years ago
There are a lot of assumptions about Microsoft in this thread and they basically all boil down to people not understanding what it is Microsoft does.<p>They sell solutions to non-IT enterprise organisations, and while it’s reasonable to assume that a lot of HN simply aren’t in touch with this world, it’s one of the largest markets for IT software there is in the world, and the only real competition Microsoft has in this area is AWS.<p>With several decades worth of experience in enterprise organisations in the European public sector, and quite a few years in the European financial private sector, Microsoft has been the sole business partner in terms of IT that has always been a solid pick. There seem to be this notion that Microsoft sells shitty products by manipulating IT managers, and that is just wholly untrue. They sell the software people want, and they sell it in a package that includes real world telephone support with their actual headquarters. Not some chat-bot or forum like Google, not some outsourced call Center like Apple, but real phone lines directly to Seattle. When something big goes wrong on any of our user facing solutions, which is basically anything office365 including sharepoint Microsoft will call us, on the hour, every hour, with updates unti things get resolved. This is essentially the most valueable thing to any IT manager in an organisation of 20.000 employees where maybe 50 are IT related, because it lets you tell the organisation exactly what Microsoft is doing to resolve the issue that is currently stopping your business.<p>The reason Azure was capable of sneaking past AWS and securing itself a healthy market share wasn’t only that it makes sense to live in Azure when you already have Office365, it was that Amazon didn’t realise how much of a deal phone support meant to the European Enterprise market. They very quickly picked up on it though, and are now in some areas like HDPR a better option than Azure.<p>Mean while a company like Google had office365 before there was office365 and have some arguably interesting services in Google Cloud, but they will never sell anything to enterprise because Google still doesn’t understand how to sell things to enterprise. It doesn’t seem like Google really cares in terms of gsuite or Google Cloud, but they do care about education, and, still they struggle with delivering what we want from them even though they ask us and we tell them. Apple is in a somewhat similar boat, except they don’t really care what we think. They do things the Apple way and never reach out.<p>Anyway, the result is that Microsoft is a great business to business partner. Especially in recent years where they have inhoused more and more of their services so you almost never have to rely on some 3rd party “gold partner” or whatever they call themselves that essentially all suck and always have sucked. The only partner we have currently is for licensing, and even this is an area that I hope Microsoft inhouses because it’s just such a stupid mess.<p>In my eyes a lot of what Microsoft sells to private customers is know how. They don’t give Office365 to students because they are nice, they do so because it means that every hire we onboard already knows excel. This means it’s incredibly hard to compete in the office space. Similarly everyone we hire knows windows, some of these people can’t tell the difference between an android or an iOS devices when they call IT support (no I’m not kidding) but they all know windows. I know that a lot of techies want Linux to be a competitive choice for users in areas like the public sector, but those are the people who would need to use it, you can’t imagine how expensive retraining 20.000 employees who can’t tell an Android and an iOS device apparat to use Linux.<p>So as private users, we’re not really Microsoft customers. I mean, we are, but not really their primary customers. Because Microsoft makes their money in enterprise, and that position has probably never been more secure than it is today. Because what is the alternative to office365? Nothing. And when you already have your AD and licensing tied up to AzureAD and all the other integrations between Azure and windows + office365, then the business case to not use Azure as your cloud environment dwindles. It sometimes does make sense to use AWS, as I stated earlier, but not often.<p>As such Microsoft along with Apple (who have the private market of non-techies locked down) are probably some or the safest stock in the world of technology. I’d still rather invest in green energy though. Who doesn’t need energy?
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SMAAARTover 3 years ago
Second-mover advantage is underrated and often confused with first-mover advantage.
mcdermottover 3 years ago
I think of Microsoft as a legacy, business oriented tech company. Other than the second string XBox product, they don&#x27;t really have any consumer juice anymore, they are all about locking in businesses and forcing technology top down via company leaders. My nephews and nieces use Google products at school and iPads at home, by the time their generation is in the workforce, Microsoft will be like IBM, still rakes in money but pretty much a has-been. The only reason I still use Windows is I&#x27;m forced to on the desktop at work, but Linux has already taken the server market.
rejectfiniteover 3 years ago
&gt; Notion: Office 365 for people below age 35. At a minimum, Office should aspire to the ease of use that Google Docs has (Office 365 for people below age 45)<p>What? Employees use what the company bought. Every company I have worked for has used Office 365. Teams is fine, but Discord is the best. Yes Slack sucks too compared to Discord.<p>Office 365 now has all the collaboration features of Google Docs and has had for some time.<p>Trust in MS is also huge in enterprise. Nothing can also touch the management of computers and servers with AD&#x2F;GPO or Intune. MacOS only has janky MDMs and Chromebooks are not used in real jobs.
rawgabbitover 3 years ago
This reads like a defense of Bill Gates and Microsoft. Comparing Microsoft to the Roman Empire is hubris. I don&#x27;t trust anything from Microsoft and the blue screen of death is still too real. Many parts of Azure, especially its data offerings, are vapor ware and&#x2F;or cr*pware. In return for the initial low low price, the number of developer hours required to keep all the moving parts moving is ridiculous. The fact that Azure doesn&#x27;t cap you off so you don&#x27;t get billed for runaway processes screams Azure is an untrustworthy platform.
nigma1337over 3 years ago
I still try to avoid Microsoft, although their opinions on Linux have changed (or atleast, they make it seem like they have), them paying analysts to make Windows look better than Linux, is quite scummy imo.
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benkaiserover 3 years ago
&gt; Airtable<p>Microsoft does have a play here. It&#x27;s Microsoft Lists. The consumer version was even announced yesterday[0]. Sure it&#x27;s not at the same level as Airtable yet, but the value of that market space is not lost on people at Microsoft.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcommunity.microsoft.com&#x2F;t5&#x2F;microsoft-365-blog&#x2F;try-microsoft-lists-with-your-microsoft-account-preview&#x2F;ba-p&#x2F;3083390" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcommunity.microsoft.com&#x2F;t5&#x2F;microsoft-365-blog&#x2F;tr...</a>
voidfuncover 3 years ago
Microsoft is so diversified it would take some truly monumental changes or a spectacular collapse for it not end up a 10T company. The question is when not if in my mind.
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georgewsingerover 3 years ago
This is a good article, but I&#x27;m surprised an article about how Microsoft can become a $10T company doesn&#x27;t have a <i>single</i> mention of VR.<p>If I were charge at Microsoft, I would orient the entire company around enterprise VR Computing.[1]<p>[1]<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;simulavr.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;why-vrcs-are-better-than-pcs-and-laptops&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;simulavr.com&#x2F;blog&#x2F;why-vrcs-are-better-than-pcs-and-l...</a>
teh_infallibleover 3 years ago
Microsoft has never been good at building things, period. With the possible exception of Xbox, their products are almost universally annoying to use.
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cwilluover 3 years ago
&gt; Microsoft’s identity became murky. Was it the Windows company? Office? Xbox? Developer tools?<p>Tea became murky. Was it water? Tannins? Milk? Sugar?
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fbn79over 3 years ago
Looking to compare Micro$oft to Roman Empire I see Gates more similar to Caeser than Romulus. Gates&#x2F;Caesar transformed the company to an empire from a little republic (Allen(Octavian) initial period). Satya looks more like Costantine the great, who became emperor on a crisis period and rebuild the empire around a new credo: Cristianity&#x2F;Azure
0xbadcafebeeover 3 years ago
I would absolutely love it if Microsoft developed a line of no-code (tiny-code?) tools for companies trying to build tech solutions. It would be great if we just had generic tech for generic business solutions so we didn&#x27;t have to keep building software engineering teams to build the same god damn simple components over and over again. Imagine Terraform or ITTT using pre-made plugins and applications and some configuration language. You could download pre-made configuration for common solutions the way you load Resume templates in MS Office.<p>Imagine never having to actually build a microservice ever again, but just downloading and running some generic-microservice-app that loads plugins for whatever you need the microservice to do, and the only thing you&#x27;d have to &quot;write&quot; is 10 lines of business logic. Now imagine downloading a &quot;template&quot; of an entire B2B SaaS, and being able to tweak a couple lines and then run it in any cloud provider. You could launch a company over a weekend.
enos_feedlerover 3 years ago
I am pretty convinced that Microsoft is about to acquire Twitter. Dorsey leaving Twitter is basically setting it up to be run by big tech. Would add 3-4B$ instant ad revenue to Microsoft&#x27;s business. Without a mobile OS, Microsoft needs to own significant mobile properties in the consumer mindshare and Twitter is one they can easily grow to be much bigger than it is today. They can build an Xbox gaming social service on top of Twitter spaces (add video streaming to spaces). It just seems to make sense given they&#x27;ve been at the table to talk with Pinterest, Discord and Tiktok. Twitter seems like a deal they can get done and it&#x27;s not unlike a Linkedin. In fact there are probably synergies there too. The stock dropping is also a sign that something could happen. Usually it gives extra room for a premium bump on an acquisition offer. If it&#x27;s not Microsoft, someone is coming in soon.
chernevikover 3 years ago
Let us pause for a minute and remember that, if it were not for Linus and Linux, we&#x27;d all be paying a computation tax to Bill Gates to cross the street.
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Xisiqomelirover 3 years ago
“FAMGA” seems forced.
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alexklarkover 3 years ago
Microsoft is a legal &amp; sales company. Not a tech, not a marketing, not gambling. They can start selling condoms and every corporation CIO will eventually get microsoft condoms operation manager user license for every employee, a million dollars pack of condom server, as well as condom office and will ensure that payment to Microsoft is most important task of his company and that users suffer and waste as much time as possible inside this condom paradise. I don’t know how they do it. It must be a deal with the devil. Or they are weasels &amp; bribers.
indigodaddyover 3 years ago
Would would the advantage be for Azure and AWS to, as the author puts it, “sandbag [conceal] the breathtaking growth of the segment?”
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shmerlover 3 years ago
In gaming MS still has heavy lock-in mentality. When they&#x27;ll start supporting Vulkan things might change.
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ho_schiover 3 years ago
This article seems to admire capitalism? And focus only on economics.<p>Aside from that. It is impressive how it missed the MS-DOS deal with IBM, subsequent dropping OS&#x2F;2 and finally WinNT. How Microsoft was never forced to compete with UNIX - but Linux - because the Reagan administration allowed AT&amp;T to leave monopoly control and ruin UNIX. It doesn&#x27;t talk much about developers and actual ecosystems. Buying and investing is a necessity but the core is information technology.
shp0ngleover 3 years ago
Lot of people want to be and write like Stratechery, but they are obviously not Stratechery.
poweraover 3 years ago
It&#x27;s somewhat surprising that Oracle isn&#x27;t even mentioned in the article.
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nvmletsdoitover 3 years ago
I mean, I use microsoft tools even for compile on Linux nowdays.<p>It&#x27;s hard to forget. :D
kumarvvrover 3 years ago
I always felt Azure was costlier than AWS. My perspective is of a solo developer. Does Azure justify its higher prices in the enterprise space with other value adds? Or is it the &quot;no one gets fired for using IBM&quot; thing?
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jbergensover 3 years ago
One main obstacle for their cloud business in general and specifically Azure is that the latest GDPR rulings in Europe basically says that it is illegal for European companies to use Azure (or AWS or GCP) if you store any personal information. This may be a hindrance for both MS and Amazon for the next 1-2 years.<p>Search for &quot;schrems ii ruling&quot; to read more about this.
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TedShillerover 3 years ago
Microsoft teaches us how to design bad software
am3101over 3 years ago
I think this article drastically underestimates how hard it is to build and acquire new businesses. It reads like a caricature of a first-year management consultant’s recommendation—step 1, acquire adjacent businesses. Step 2, profit. (Edit: former management consultant)<p>Set aside the culture piece, which is well described in the thread.<p>First, MSFT struggles a lot with keeping innovation going and a big piece of this is that in order to get the full value out of vertical integration with your existing product portfolio (and customer base), you need to build full integration with other products, which often handicaps the new product with old protocols.<p>Teams is a great (organic) example. The concept of slack+zoom+Dropbox is awesome. I think if it was executed well, it would be the market leader (or the other three would consolidate). But my experience doing anything with files in it has been very poor (it eats my files constantly!!!), and I think that is because it’s stuck using SharePoint as the backend, which was great for its time but was not intended for modern use cases.<p>On the flip side, MSFT has also done a great job of acquiring &#x2F; building _noncore_ products that don’t struggle with this. GitHub is a good example—there aren’t a lot of legacy core dependencies. But I find it hard to believe that if they bought airtable they wouldn’t try to merge it with excel and get stuck with the .xls&#x2F;xlsx limits. By the way, if you don’t… how do you sell to legacy clients, which is their advantage?<p>Second, Microsoft’s history has made it quite fearful of regulatory intervention. Yes, positioning themselves as “we’re not evil like Amazon, stealing your ideas” is a strategy, but it is also because they are terrified that they will be caught doing something like Amazon because everyone there remembers the ‘90s. It is amazing how often the phrase “we have to stay neutral” comes up in my meetings with my (multi year relationship) Microsoft sales reps.<p>Third, related to this… Microsoft probably would get slammed with antitrust action if they started buying every company with a $100mn market cap!<p>Fourth, I think this article drastically overestimates network effects. Actually, I think it misunderstands them. Zoom does not have network effects. If a client or vendor (or my boss) sends me a WebEx link, I am going to (begrudgingly) download the WebEx client and use it. There is no additional value to having more users (which is the definition of a network effect). This article is conflating scale with network effect.<p>As an aside, I thought some of the advice to startups was funny. Capital may be a nice moat, but it seems hard to action on (“ah, I realized what I was missing… I will go raise $5bn for my series A SaaS business!”) as does the concept of cross-selling, which requires multiple (compelling) products, a large and very capable sales force, and years of trust with the client. I think the core insight here is spot on—it is Microsoft’s sales team that is the special sauce here.<p>Finally, another aside—I think share buybacks are extremely appropriate for large tech companies. I get that people think about them in % terms, but we have _trillion dollar companies_ now. It’s very hard to imagine that the last marginal dollar of profit goes as far in innovation at a trillion dollar company as it does as a billion dollar company. I would much rather a firm like Microsoft return some of that capital to shareholders rather than spending every last penny on innovation, at least in its current form and structure.
bigcat123over 3 years ago
The writing is so sloppy.<p>Just from the beginning:<p>&gt; Despite its scale, Microsoft is one of the most overlooked companies in tech.<p>What&#x27;s the standard of overlookness? I never for a moment feel MSFT was overlooked, by any measure of sampling.<p>&gt; It is not a beloved consumer brand like Apple, Facebook, Amazon, or Google.<p>In 90s, MSFT used to be thought as one of the 2 pillars of THE PC industry as a whole. And MSFT was commonly thought to be the more powerful one of the wintel dual.<p>MSFT lost its glamour when the anti monopoly suit hit them hard.<p>Then very loosely speaking MSFT lost a lot of battle in the 2010s.<p>But still, MSFT has a much longer history than FB and Google. Theese 3 enjoyed probably similar scale of love from their users. And FB is the one with the least amount of love in their hayday.<p>Apple is a different story. They always have a particularly cult like following that skewed every commentators&#x27; perspective.<p>&gt; It was not a venture capital success story: Microsoft was too profitable to raise real VC money, so the founders owned 70% at IPO.<p>What? BC has been much smaller in the days of MSFT. You should say BC was not favored not MSFT was not relevant to VC. It was after MSFT created the PC market, and enabled Internet, then that the entrapeneriship becomes much cheaper through online economy. Then the VC becomes a central force of the high tech industry.<p>You are asking the father to be judged by its grandson for greatness...<p>&gt; It is the oldest of FAMGA, hidden away in a different state.<p>What?... Why not included HP, DEC, Fairchild then... Of course some is old some is young. The fact that MSFT lives for so long is a symbol of success itself...<p>Thus mumbling of words are unbearable...
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zarriakover 3 years ago
Great article but please use GAFAM not FAAMG or FAMGA
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astlouis44over 3 years ago
The next wave is 3D. Not just games, but in enterprise, shopping, communication. Satya and team realize this, and the Activision-Blizzard buyout was just setting the stage for what&#x27;s to come. That&#x27;s why Microsoft&#x27;s next acquisition MUST be Epic Games, due to their market leadership in everything real-time 3D.<p>This purchase would cement Microsoft firmly in the upcoming metaverse race, and provide a real set of legs to stand on to face off against Meta and Apple. Microsoft could also go after Unity, but this would make less sense as the acquisition price would be about the same as Epic, and with Unreal Engine they get a software suite that&#x27;s getting scarily close to photorealism with Nanite, Lumen, and Metahuman.
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