I'm genuinely surprised Facebook is playing these games.<p>This is disproportionately so much worse for Facebook, than it is for German/French users.<p>1) Let's assume that German/French users are absolutely shattered to lose Facebook. If they are that hurt, they will probably do at least a basic Google search to find out why they can't access FB anymore. And what they will find is that FB preferred cutting them out rather than not transferring their data to the US.<p>I suspect that people would be split between (a) surprise that FB is storing their data, (b) surprise that FB has been sending their data to the US, (c) shocked that FB would choose to end operations than not send data to the US (which would immediately make them suspicious why they want to send data to the US), (d) have jingoistic anti-FB sentiments, etc.<p>I can't see a significant cohort that would be unhappy that their governments stood the ground on their data not being sent to the US. Even if you don't understand why the governments did this, you'd be wondering what FB has to hide that they can't keep the data in France/Germany.<p>2) Many people may not see FB as such a huge loss. There are many alternatives that could fill their social media addictions.<p>3) If there isn't a huge outcry for FB, that would shatter the aura of invincibility FB currently holds in the social media space. That aura has already been marginally dented with their latest quarterly results, but to see FB completely disappear from the 2 biggest European economies and life continuing as basically normal will be a huge blow to FB.<p>It will raise a whole lot of questions everywhere else. More authoritarian regimes will threaten to cut out FB if they don't help censor, etc. the way those regimes want them to. Privacy focused regimes would hold the threat of cutting out FB if it doesn't impose greater privacy protection. etc.<p>I don't see how FB can win here besides France/Germany folding, which I seriously doubt will happen.
If Google threatened to withdraw (which they're probably not foolish enough to do), the loss of things like Maps (that many other services depend on) and Gmail and Google Docs and etc. would worry most advanced economies. If Apple threatened to withdraw, it would not be as worrisome, but it would probably anger a lot of Apple fans. I feel like a significant chunk of FB users are only on it because they need to be in order to communicate with friends and family who stopped checking their email. Knowing that FB was not available in their country would make things simpler. FB is about as popular with their own users as, say, your average Big Tobacco company. They can't quit, but if it weren't available they would be better off after a couple weeks withdrawal.
> The pair were responding to comments in Meta’s annual report published Thursday, warning that if it couldn’t rely on new or existing agreements to shift data, then it would “likely be unable to offer a number of our most significant products and services, including Facebook and Instagram, in Europe.”<p>I don’t think they’re entirely bluffing, it may be they temporarily have no choice because this is a difficult technical problem with their existing code base. How do you store a global social graph and its associated content without having data cross borders? Even more so, how do you adapt an existing complex global social graph to respect borders? And how do you get Facebook to instantly load all the content from each of these segregated data stores?
This is beautiful. Can someone who understands what’s actually happening explain if this is just negotiation theatre? Meta is obviously bluffing and posturing right, and there’s no real likelihood they would extricate their platforms from Europe?
So am I. Have been just fine for many years. Never signed up for twitter, facebook, linkedin, instagram, whatsapp, tiktok, snapchat. Abandoned my reddit account years ago. I do have a github account, but that’s about it as far as “social” media goes.<p>One day a cool enough new social media startup will appear, and I will sign up, I promise!
I'd really love to be a fly on the wall in the internal FB conversations on this one because from the outside it makes no sense.<p>They are either unbelievably tone deaf and about to get themselves in serious trouble which feels unlikely given the amounts of money involved or they are playing some crazy chess game. Unbelievably the first feels more likely here. You'd have to assume at an organization the size of FB there are a couple of adults in the room but maybe none with enough sway to stop this slow motion train wreck?
This is an arrogant and naïve view by those two politicians — and by FB too.<p>My FB feed is pretty equally split between English, French and German posts and comments. I know what’s up with my friends and their kids, pets, etc. I get a lot of jokes. People don’t want to lose that.<p>FB is also being arrogant and if they really try to pull out yes, they will provoke a lot of unhappiness directed at the EU, but I do think quite a few — probably close to majority, will be upset that FB won’t protect their data. Sadly there is no European alternative to FB/IG, and not really WhatsApp.<p>The EU politicians should stop them lazy sniping and attacking of FB and simply, quietly, and firmly insist that FB obey the (European) law. They would be more effective if they chose to speak softly and just keep a tight grip on the data protection stick.
I don't think FB would make a move like this without feeling somewhat confident. My guess is they're leaning into the effect it'll have on small businesses if they suddenly vanish from EU.
Zuck won't shoot himself in the foot, he is just playing games with politicians at this point. And yea they said they would lost 25% of their revenue if they do it[0].<p>[0] <a href="https://www.trendingtopics.eu/meta-withdrawal-from-europe-would-cost-facebook-25-of-revenue/" rel="nofollow">https://www.trendingtopics.eu/meta-withdrawal-from-europe-wo...</a>
Big opportunity for an European Social Network to get all those users before Facebook closes in Europe.<p>I would like to do it as a Software Engineer. Anyone wants to be in charge of the marketing?
I don't understand why everyone - including the normally thick-skinned and business-minded HN crowd - is buying into this fake protest.<p>Facebook is simply trying to score some small victory out of a bad situation, probably a time extension or somewhat relaxed rules.<p>The question is whether this will backfire when everyone else sees it as a real threat.