That's it really. I mean regardless of which side (if any) you take on Ukraine war...there's a growing feeling that this is the beginning of next world war. And in light of this things seem kinda of pointless you know.<p>What do you think? How do you cope?<p>PS: pls don't make this into another warzone. The question is just the last one really. How do you cope if you have this view on things.<p>EU citizen here.
Being born in 1967, WWIII seemed potentially imminent for the first 20 years of my life. There's wasn't particularly a solution, you just go on anyway.<p>If you're the leader of Russia, you have a good way of preventing this. If you're not, it's out of your control, so just focus on the things you can control.
The Second Cold War started up around 2010 and it just turned hot. I doubt it will turn into WW3 but this isn't the last proxy war the US and Russia will fight.<p>How do you cope?<p>If you're like me and sleep better with fewer unknowns, understand Russia's and the US's military capabilities—I highly recommend <i>Russia's Military Revival</i>—and read about some modern nuclear strategy. We've evolved past "fire everything at every population center." Matthew Kroenig has publish some good stuff, and elucidates ideas like "warhead sinks."<p>If you don't sleep better the more you know, get real into sports and another hobby–something you enjoy you can talk about with others that occupies your time. Most people can get by just fine without following the news.<p>You can manage your own anxiety.
EU citizen here.<p>During the Korean War, we believed WW3 was just around the corner.<p>... and during the Berlin Crisis.<p>... as we did when Vietnam got hot.<p>... just like we did when the Jom-Kippur-War broke out.<p>... or when Able Archer 1983 was a bit too realistic for soviet tastes<p>... then there were several rounds of Gulf Wars...<p>... remember 9/11?<p>What you are feeling is the "normal" state. In fact, between 2001 and 2022 is probably the longest time Europeans have not been expecting to get turned into nuclear ash by the madmen of the two superpowers. At least we can live calmly knowing we are the designated primary target and likely won't have to die slowly like the rest.
Yes, we are sleepwalking into WW3, much in the same way we sleepwalked into WW2. The West has completely misunderstood Putin, and will continue to do so until it's too late to stop these events (a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now). Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age.<p>Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space, and to secure Russia's place as a world power again. This must happen by force since Russian economic and cultural influences are insufficient.<p>Nothing will dissuade Putin from his aims, as he believes this to be an existential crisis that threatens the very existence of Russia if he doesn't act now.<p>He started on this adventure because of bad intel from the FSB about his armed forces, Ukrainian resistance, and world reaction. The plans were modeled after Operation Danube ( <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Pact_invasion_of_Czechoslovakia" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Pact_invasion_of_Czecho...</a> ), and were supposed to become a fait accompli so that there'd be nothing for the West to do, like all the other times before. Except it didn't work out that way this time. It's far too late to stop now; either he wins, or Russian ambition is destroyed forever. Granted, the ambition has been reduced to only Donbas, but he still needs to walk away with territory and then prepare for his next slice.<p>You can read it in Karaganov's own words here: <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants" rel="nofollow">https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/ru...</a><p>But even if this goes so far that actual nukes start flying (an iffy proposition even for him), the first ones will land in Ukraine as a warning.
Someone stated that Putin doesn't think he's at war with Ukraine. He thinks he's at war with NATO. From some of the things he's said, I think that assessment is correct.<p>That makes it really hard to stop. If he thinks he's already at war with us, then he can make that a reality how and when he wants. But I'm not sure we're sleepwalking into it. We're aware; we just have very few options of avoiding it if Putin is determined to make it happen. We are, however, trying to avoid direct confrontation while also avoiding appeasement and "peace in our time". I don't know that we have a better option.<p>How do I cope? Well, I'm a Christian. I believe that God is in charge of history - this isn't all at the whim of random human folly. And I believe that, even if I get killed, that's all right too, because I have something better that I'm going to.<p>If that's not where you're coming from... yeah, it's scary. I don't know what to tell you in terms of how to deal with it.
My fear isn't that we are “sleepwalking into WW3“, but that the world is deep into it, but large parts of it are making it worse, in the long term, by denial of that fact.<p>OTOH, I also desperately want the denial to turn out to be correct.
It does, and it doesn't. Like the US invasion of Iraq, the war in Ukraine doesn't make a damned lick of sense. The thing that I'm most scared of is the possibility that he'll actually use a nuke; that others will respond in kind. I think that a hot WWIII would be measured in days, and I don't expect that to happen.<p>What gives me hope is that nobody is really taking Putin's side here outside a few of Russia's neighbors which are already in shambles because of Russia's military excursions into them. Germany had more and stronger allies going into the previous two world wars; right now it's pretty much Russia vs the West and it seems that China doesn't want to get involved.<p>I'm somewhat dismayed at the non-involvement we're seeing. My heart-sinking prediction is that Russia will nuke Kiev (or perhaps something of more tactical value) and that still won't move the needle. That would define a new era in nuclear tactics; one which I'm terrified to contemplate.
> How do you cope if you have this view on things.<p>Keep doing whatever you're doing - things like the course of world wars are completely out of your control so there's no point in worrying about them.
Nothing to see and walk along is my attitude. Maybe I'll throw in a cabin if wifie allows but she probably doesn't so whatever. If nuclear missiles start to fly around and there is still time I'll calmly tell her "I told you".
I don't really see that happening. For one a world war requires well.. the world and its unclear to me how and why Asia would be drawn into this conflict given that there's nothing to gain.<p>Secondly there is way too much asymmetry between NATO and Russia. Russia is in no state to fight a war against a major power which has become obvious given their military performance in Ukraine.<p>So the next escalation would be nukes and I have my doubts that they're more likely than the Russian military apparatus straight up deposing Putin should that seem like a credible threat. Russian's top brass has survival instincts too, and not to mention a lot of offspring in Europe and the US.
Maybe, maybe not. There is always the potential. I think the chances are slim but the risk is high -- even with very low probability the potential consequences are enormous resulting in a significant risk. With the risk of a world war the greatest risk comes the risk of nuclear war. Especially over the past two years I have grown more wary about the risk of war between so called superpowers and the risk of nuclear war in particular. Humanity needs to learn to transcend violent conflict if we are to progress. We need to work towards the elimination of nuclear weapons globally, although there isn't a lot we can do at the individual level on that. Fortunately since WWII the world has become less violent overall and things have generally improved in a positive direction.<p>I disagree that everything seems pointless. If anything there is much more at stake and actions are even more important.<p>Lately I have been reading papers from ALLFED[1-2]. They have found quite a few alternative ways we could produce food during a sun blocking crisis and they would be enough to feed more than 8 billion people if needed through a severe nuclear winter, even if we lost all of our current agriculture. But they have also found that only few would survive if we only try to survive on stored food.<p>Another excellent resource for planning for the initial few moments/weeks of a nuclear war has been [3] which provides practical instructions for rapid construction of expedient fallout shelters.<p>Understanding these I at least have a feasible and actionable plan, and better understanding of what would be involved if worst case scenarios were to happen. It is a lot less hopeless than most believe, although still terrible.<p>I suggest reading through these and you can find things you can do at the individual level. Also consider supporting ALLFED as their work has potential to be highly impactful if such a scenario is ever realized.<p>[1] <a href="https://allfed.info" rel="nofollow">https://allfed.info</a>
[2] <a href="https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/david-denkenberger-sahil-shah-using-paper-mills-and-seaweed-in-catastrophes/" rel="nofollow">https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/david-denkenberger-s...</a>
[3] <a href="https://www.oism.org/nwss/" rel="nofollow">https://www.oism.org/nwss/</a>