This sounds like one of those phenomenons that suffers when too many people find out about it.<p>The more it's written about, tested, and the more people in the disgruntled minority (or majority) with what appears to be the statistics on a given Monday --- the less accurate this'll likely be on Tuesday... rest of the time.
Those google numbers are 30-day averages, so it's possible to get plenty more than 100%. Looks like coincidence.<p>In the US now we have:<p><pre><code> michele bachmann 14
herman cain 36
mitt romney 11
ron paul 34
rick perry 33
</code></pre>
All that said, I will be watching Insights and Trends now to see how it pans out. It might be coincidence, but it's potentially very interesting coincidence.
I tried it for the GOP presidential primary.<p><pre><code> mitt romney 11
rick perry 33
herman cain 36
michele bachmann 14
ron paul 34
</code></pre>
So I guess it's Cain or Perry with Romney not standing a chance?<p>Also:<p><pre><code> perry 73
obama 67
romney 9
obama 72
</code></pre>
In MA:<p><pre><code> scott brown 0
elizabeth warren 31</code></pre>
Google is getting thought samples from the brains of a billion people. Whether this particular method is valid or not, I expect they can make such predictions, and more. Flu trends, elections, real estate by region, box-office openings, popular conflict ("why are Tutsis so..."), traffic, stock prices in some cases ("xbox red light", "how to buy krispy kreme stock")...
Seems to be a coincidence for me.<p>If you do it only for Hollande and Aubry, now. The results are the same... Aubry 29 Hollande 39, difficult to prdict a second turn with more than 30% not turning up.<p>We'll see next sunday if it's a coincidence or no.