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Everyone gets numbers wrong, even the New York Times

120 pointsby snewmanabout 3 years ago

22 comments

RandomWorkerabout 3 years ago
One source is not evidence.<p>This is the core rule I learned as a researcher. More often than not, reputable journalists will get it more right than wrong on aggregate. On average, the numbers published by reputable journalists will be right and not misleading.<p>These are some interesting examples, however, the core rule: &quot;One source is not evidence&quot; is probably more important here to remember. Read a variety of sources and articles. I often find that sometimes in the same paper they will contradict numbers. Then I know, the editor missed it.
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PaulKeebleabout 3 years ago
Even the direction the number suggests can be completely wrong too. A lot of news is just propaganda at this stage, very little enlightenment comes from reading it. As has been argued quite a lot here on Hacker News its also not very valuable either, not knowing the news doesn&#x27;t cause you much in the way of life problems since you will find out about the big things another way.
skybrianabout 3 years ago
A more subtle example: the Washington Post gets COVID statistics from John Hopkins, which uses &quot;date reported&quot; for COVID cases instead of &quot;episode date.&quot; This means percentage increase (or decrease) since a week ago can be wildly wrong when states backfill data, as they often do.<p>I haven&#x27;t traced it but the New York Times and Google seem to have similar problems.<p>Usually it&#x27;s better to look at the state&#x27;s website or the CDC, but they have different dashboards that often don&#x27;t calculate the same useful metrics for you.<p>Or at least, they&#x27;d be useful if they were right.
natchabout 3 years ago
The word &quot;even&quot; here in the title indicates a fundamental lack of understanding of just how bad the New York Times is.<p>If you are ever very close to the subject of a story, to the point where you know the important details, and then you see that subject get covered by the New York Times, you will see just how bad they are. Exceedingly, horrendously, tragically bad with facts, and trying to put an ideological spin on everything. But I&#x27;ll grant that it&#x27;s often less bad than some of the others.
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jbjabout 3 years ago
reporting news from english sources in continental Europe, it happens that billion is incorrectly translated to billion instead of milliard, causing a factor 1000 to appear out of nowhere. (do your own math for trillions)<p>The one in the example may be a brain fart, but so many other errors could be prevented by standardizing a few things ... decimals and thousand sepatators is another one
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em500about 3 years ago
Hear, hear. I keep being amazed how little sanity check is done when it comes to numbers.<p>I developed a rule of thumb over the years: if you can&#x27;t Fermi estimate some metric or quantity within an order of magnitude, you probably don&#x27;t understand the metric very well. If you can&#x27;t estimate it within two order of magnitudes, you probably don&#x27;t understand it at all.
yonaguskaabout 3 years ago
*Especially the New York times.<p>I believe their mistakes are equally likely to be intentional as they are to be simple mistakes. Especially when it comes to topics where there is an agenda at play.
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macinjoshabout 3 years ago
I&#x27;d argue this applies to all information, not just numbers. It is easier to point out incorrect numerical values than an esoteric and hard to communicate set of facts or circumstances. When it comes to modern journalism I see many problems:<p>1. Traditionally, editors write the headlines and sub heads. The editor knows even less about the subject than the writer so what are the chances they will get it right especially when their goal is not accuracy but attracting readers.<p>2. Twitter, the water cooler for all journalists, has put on public display and has quantified journalist relevance, popularity, and influence. Blogs did this to a certain extent but Twitter really put the gas to the pedal. Some news orgs force their journalists to use social media. This means that there are very real personal and career incentives to make the story fit the in-group narrative or be lambasted for it. This means that finding an angle on a story that highlights a specific narrative is the goal. To be clear the narrative is usually some worse case scenario that scares people and gets them to click. It doesn&#x27;t have to be some sort of script handed down by a conspiracy.<p>3. Most people only read headlines and maybe the first few graffs. Often clarifying or information countering the headline is mentioned at the end of a piece. I often will read the end of an article first before subjecting myself to the manipulation found at the beginning of articles.<p>4. When success is about having clicks and shares there is a _strong_ incentive to publish stories before anyone else which is antithetical to carefully ensuring accuracy, integrity, and reason.<p>All in all, journalism is simply organized hearsay and I never automatically believe anything I am being told. That is not say it is useless, but it is important to understand its nature before consuming it.
nkozyraabout 3 years ago
Headlines are very bad places for truth. They&#x27;re often written by rushed editors with less real-world reporting experience.<p>Because newspapers still often have to fit for space and are less likely to write multiple headlines for digital and print, there are constraints that often lead to rapid iterations and are far more likely to be out of sync with the article itself.
guilhasabout 3 years ago
The problem is not that numbers can be wrong, is that they have been presented with such arrogance that everyone doubting or debating the numbers, and their actual wider impact, has to be banned and labeled a anti-science conspiracy lunatic
simulate-meabout 3 years ago
Language is an imperfect model for representing ideas. Million is close to billion, linguistically. Certainly not off by a power of 1000 in the space of language. I’m surprised the author is just coming to this realization.
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listlessabout 3 years ago
The sad thing is people I know would tell you the COVID number is _overcounted_ because anyone dying while having COVID is counted as a COVID death.<p>That is true, but not enough to change the numbers and certainly not enough to make up for the uncounted cases. But when these media outlets get the numbers wrong, it bolsters these ideological positions built around “they’re lying to you”.
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jerfabout 3 years ago
The &quot;Latency Numbers Every Programmer Should Know&quot; is posted here periodically: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gist.github.com&#x2F;jboner&#x2F;2841832" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gist.github.com&#x2F;jboner&#x2F;2841832</a><p>One of the fringe benefits of being a programmer is that if you try, you can start developing an intuition for how things across a <i>huge</i> span of orders of magnitude add together. That chart alone covers 8-and-a-bit orders of magnitude differences for simple operations, and then we may want to perform those operations thousands or billions or quadrillions of times.<p>I don&#x27;t do super-high-performance systems, but I still encounter coworkers in our normal routines who are off in the mental models by multiple orders of magnitude w.r.t. to how much something should cost. I see overestimation more often than underestimation.<p>(My opinion on that is that if you &quot;think&quot; a database query should take 50ms, when it actually does you don&#x27;t worry about it and dig into why. When the answer is, you&#x27;re missing an index and doing a table scan for something that ought to be 5 microseconds, a full 4 orders of magnitude difference, it&#x27;s easy to not notice, because in absolute, human terms, 50ms is still pretty fast. Make a dozen or two of those mistakes, even in otherwise very large systems running lots of code with a lot more than a dozen things going on, and it&#x27;s easy for overestimates to become self-fulfilling prophecies and to accidentally build systems bleeding out orders (plural!) of magnitude performance without realizing it. Underestimates are much more likely to slap you in the face and get resolved one way or another.)<p>Another example: I&#x27;m a fan of time-tested wisdom of all sorts, but sometimes time does move on and invalidate things. &quot;It all adds up&quot; used to be true when everything we humans dealt with was in the same rough orders of magnitude, but it&#x27;s not always true anymore. It doesn&#x27;t always all add up. If I&#x27;ve got a 500ms process, do you have any idea how many nanosecond things it takes to even bump that by 1%, let alone add up to anything significant? If your &quot;1ns&quot;-range code has effectively no loops, or is O(n) on some small chunk of data or something, it&#x27;s inconsequential. There&#x27;s plenty of other places in the modern world, which spans more orders of magnitude than the world used to, where this time-tested wisdom can be false, and it in fact does not &quot;all add up&quot;.<p>This is one of the reason you must always profile your code if you want to improve performance. People have always not always been perfect at finding bottlenecks even when our machines didn&#x27;t casually span 12 orders of magnitude, but any developer no matter how experienced can be tempted to blame the complicated code dealing in microseconds but miss the simple-looking code hiding milliseconds.<p>This covers mostly the first bit of the article, but if you practice this sort of sense can start helping with a lot of the other innumeracy issues encountered too. We have good practice grounds for this in our discipline.
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mherdegabout 3 years ago
My version of this &quot;any number is a warning sign&quot; is: if someone is writing an article about a court case and doesn&#x27;t include the docket number (so you can look up the history and new filings yourself) and PDFs of the documents (so you can see for yourself), assume you are being misinformed.<p>Same with any reporting about a police report that doesn&#x27;t include a ... copy of the police report.
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irrationalabout 3 years ago
Under the title “Serious Professionals Get It Wrong All The Time” there is a picture of a misaligned road&#x2F;bridge. Does anyone know if this is a real picture? If so, what is the story and how did they fix it?
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dekhnabout 3 years ago
I saw an article yesterday saying the US was giving $800B in aid to Ukraine, and I had to think several times about whether that was conceivable.
snake_docabout 3 years ago
Considering that the NYT doesn’t hire copy editors anymore, it’s not surprising. They stopped in 2017.
smaryjerryabout 3 years ago
This reminds me of a example that happened just a couple days ago. The White House tweet that 70 percent of the inflation in March was due to Putin. That makes you think Putin is causing a lot of the March 2022 over March 2021 inflation number reported, which was 8.5%. However the inflation number they compared was March 2022 over February 2022, which was only 1.2% inflation of which 70% is a small much smaller effect and also was a relatively short term jump because markets thought the sanctions were going to be much stricter and bid up the prices in March and prices of many Russia produced goods have lowered some already after that expectation was reversed. This type of confusion is cause us to wrongly assess what is causing inflation or at least what is causing the biggest impact and our only hope is that the policy makers are actually reading these things correctly and able to make decisions but simply informing the public in unclear ways.
Cthulhu_about 3 years ago
Lies, damned lies and statistics? Seems like an example of that.<p>I mean the &quot;at least half a million&quot; figure is not <i>factually</i> incorrect, it&#x27;s just... misinformation? Downplaying, either intentionally or accidentally? Same as the &quot;probably more&quot; line, it&#x27;s downplaying a fact by adding a bit of insecurity. It&#x27;s an ass covering opening paragraph.
johnklosabout 3 years ago
Indeed! It&#x27;s amazing how often people just simply don&#x27;t care.<p>Trader Joe&#x27;s, for instance, makes signs for their produce with crazy prices. Five bananas for a penny! Yes, you read that right! They either don&#x27;t understand decimal places, or they don&#x27;t realize that it&#x27;s not legal to advertise incorrect prices.<p>Their signs clearly say .19¢. I pointed it out to them, and they looked at me like I&#x27;m crazy.<p>Perhaps they&#x27;ll care when I insist they sell them to me for that price, then complain to the county&#x27;s Office of Consumer Affairs if they don&#x27;t.
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yesenadamabout 3 years ago
And not just numbers. The overwhelming majority of the times I look up a reference cited in a wikipedia article, it turns out to not at all support the wikipedia text. Very often, when the wikipedia text seems murky, whoever cited the reference didn&#x27;t understand the source document at all. I guess numbers never seem murky like that, so you don&#x27;t get those same warning signs as with vague prose.
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axg11about 3 years ago
I&#x27;m not a journalist but I do sympathize with these types of mistakes in the media. Journalists have two essential parts to their roles: (1) understand the topic, (2) communicate the topic. The issue that comes up again and again is that journalists are not really qualified to do (1). Many issues and topics that journalists report on require expertise, a PhD, or just years of investigation to deeply understand.<p>Compounding the difficulty is that journalists report to non-experts in two ways. Their direct bosses are other journalists. Their indirect bosses are the consumers of media, 99.99% are non-experts. If 99.99% of your customers don&#x27;t know or care about the details you will naturally put less attention towards the details.<p>We need to stop pretending that reading&#x2F;watching&#x2F;listening to the news is somehow informative or educational. Every piece of journalism is, at some level, fiction trying to masquerade as non-fiction. One way to fix this is to encourage more experts to directly communicate with the public. This has the opposite problem, since most experts are not skilled at communicating their expertise to a wide audience. Ultimately a healthy society requires a balance of the two. I&#x27;m firmly in the camp that we currently have too many non-experts trying to communicate expertise.
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