TE
TechEcho
Home24h TopNewestBestAskShowJobs
GitHubTwitter
Home

TechEcho

A tech news platform built with Next.js, providing global tech news and discussions.

GitHubTwitter

Home

HomeNewestBestAskShowJobs

Resources

HackerNews APIOriginal HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 TechEcho. All rights reserved.

Is growth linear, not exponential?

73 pointsby jasoncrawfordabout 3 years ago

13 comments

21723about 3 years ago
It's almost certainly exponential, but the rate of growth depends on a number of dynamic factors. Corrupt elites often shut growth down. It happened in China and Japan several times in the second millennium, and it's happening in the US in the third one; we've backslid since about 1970.
评论 #31105177 未加载
评论 #31104620 未加载
评论 #31104797 未加载
评论 #31105496 未加载
评论 #31105421 未加载
apolloartemisabout 3 years ago
Can’t you model almost anything as a piecewise linear function? I don’t know if this claim is saying much of substance.
评论 #31102289 未加载
评论 #31103272 未加载
评论 #31106669 未加载
hyperpallium2about 3 years ago
It takes time for an industry to absorb technologies that require changes in behaviour, organization and values. Even longer if multiple industries are involved, general physical infrastructure, institurions, and consumer culture.<p>Perhaps even related to a human generation, or even living memory (like <i>physics progresses one funeral at a time</i>). Though the inflection points found lack that duration-scale and periodicity.<p>Just on curve fitting: you need some penalty for each extra line (noisy data can always be &quot;fitted&quot; better to enough lines). I expect the paper has a large section on this issue of statistical significance, but I can&#x27;t access it.<p>I do feel it&#x27;s kind of hard to say if such a pattern is &quot;really&quot; there, where exactly the breaks are, or if it&#x27;s just a noisy artifact.
georgewsingerabout 3 years ago
This idea was originally discussed by Alexey Guzey back in 2021: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;guzey.com&#x2F;economics&#x2F;bloom&#x2F;#bloom-et-al-appear-to-not-realize-that-most-of-the-data-they-analyze-in-the-paper-including-the-us-tfp-does-not-exhibit-exponential-growth" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;guzey.com&#x2F;economics&#x2F;bloom&#x2F;#bloom-et-al-appear-to-not...</a><p>Perhaps there&#x27;s something I&#x27;m missing, but it&#x27;s weird that he isn&#x27;t getting any credit for it.
评论 #31104534 未加载
Xcelerateabout 3 years ago
&gt; To demonstrate this, the two models are subjected to various statistical tests on multiple data sets, mostly 20th-century, from the US and about two dozen other countries. In a later section, the models are tested on European data from 1600–1914. The linear model outperforms on pretty much every test<p>Why not just use minimum description length?
alanbernsteinabout 3 years ago
The whole discussion seems to center on the TFP index. I&#x27;m not familiar with this, but Wikipedia says &quot;it&#x27;s also called multi-factor productivity&quot;, and it&#x27;s a ratio of GDP to the &quot;weighted geometric average of labour and capital input&quot;. Asking &quot;is growth linear?&quot; is a very different question than &quot;is output&#x2F;input linear?&quot;. Of course it&#x27;s reasonable for input to grow exponentially as well as output, so yes, the ratio should be linear, which is not inconsistent with just the output being exponential.<p>And, I can&#x27;t say without more reading more, what might be hidden by that weighting? Zooming into an exponential enough will make it look linear.
daniel-cussenabout 3 years ago
So sometimes it&#x27;s quadratic, once in a while cubic. Never exponential. Never, never exponential. Rid that of your mind! If there were infinitely many dimensions, exponential growth would be possible. There are not, so it&#x27;s impossible.<p>So cells. Cells do not multiply exponentially. DNA does not move faster than the speed of light! Nothing in the cell does! It may <i>look</i> exponential but actually that&#x27;s cubic, they&#x27;re easily confused, along with a shitty excel library, and bad measurement, measuring it on the small side early on. And what else? A bad education, being told exponential growth is real.
评论 #31105234 未加载
acdabout 3 years ago
Economic expansion debt growth is exponential. However power increase &#x2F; global warming puts limits on linear power expansion.<p>These two does not match economy growth vs global warming.
freemintabout 3 years ago
The last time i did a similar fit with world GDP between 1920ish and now it came out as O(x^a) where a was between 4 and 5. Actually i fitted the ODE dx&#x2F;dt = \beta*x^\alpha to data, the fitted looked nice. I wish i wrote a blog post about it.
评论 #31117774 未加载
robocatabout 3 years ago
And perhaps there is a new linear section starting with the computer revolution?
aidenn0about 3 years ago
Is this new? I remember reading an article a long time ago (maybe 15 years?) discussing how growth in aircraft speed was overall exponential, but linear for each new technology that was introduced.
评论 #31102508 未加载
评论 #31103233 未加载
评论 #31106228 未加载
评论 #31103327 未加载
_Nat_about 3 years ago
&quot;<i>Growth</i>&quot; isn&#x27;t necessarily linear nor exponential. It&#x27;s just a word for when things get bigger -- the rate at which something grows depends on how it grows.<p>Exponential-growth occurs when each unit of the growing-thing grows at a continuous rate. For example, if Alice invests $100 in a continuously-compounding bond, then keep re-investing the yields into more of the same bonds, then that&#x27;ld tend to be an exponential-growth process.<p>Linear-growth occurs when the growing-thing is produced at a regular rate. For example, if Bob keep making widgets, then the growth-rate of Bob&#x27;s widget-pile would tend to be linear.<p>Anyway, apparently [this paper (2020) [PDF]](<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.stanford.edu&#x2F;~chadj&#x2F;IdeaPF.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.stanford.edu&#x2F;~chadj&#x2F;IdeaPF.pdf</a> ) had its Equation-(1) basically parse to:<p>&gt; dA&#x2F;dt &#x2F; A = alpha * S<p>, where &quot;<i>A</i>&quot; would be &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot; (which seems vaguely defined), &quot;<i>t</i>&quot; is time, &quot;<i>alpha</i>&quot; is a constant-proportionality-factor, and &quot;<i>S</i>&quot; is an amount-of-scientists (who presumably generate the &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot;).<p>This equation is for an exponential-growth model. For example, if we reduce it to &quot;<i>dA&#x2F;dt = k * A</i>&quot; (where &quot;<i>k</i>&quot; is a constant for alpha*S, to make this easier on WolframAlpha), then [the solution is an exponential-function](<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wolframalpha.com&#x2F;input?i=dA%2Fdt+%3D+k+*+A" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wolframalpha.com&#x2F;input?i=dA%2Fdt+%3D+k+*+A</a> ).<p>By contrast, it&#x27;d have been a linear-function if the authors instead assumed<p>&gt; dA&#x2F;dt = alpha * S<p>... this is, no &quot;&#x2F; A&quot; on the left-hand-side.<p>Anyway, a lot of comments on this thread seem to claim that any (first-order continuously-differential) function is approximately linear if we zoom in enough. Which, yup! -- we can look at both the linear-function and exponential-function as linear-functions by zooming in. So let&#x27;s do that!<p>Basically, we can compare:<p>1. dA&#x2F;dt = alpha * S (the linear-case)<p>2. dA&#x2F;dt = alpha * S * A (the exponential-case)<p>where &quot;<i>dA&#x2F;dt</i>&quot; is basically the rate at which &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot; are generated, and then the right-hand-side of both equations is the marginal-rate (or instantaneous-rate), which is basically the slope of the linear-function that we&#x27;d see if we zoomed in enough on both functions such that they both appear (at least approximately) linear.<p>Practically speaking, we can ignore &quot;<i>alpha</i>&quot;. It&#x27;s basically just a fit-constant to be solved for. Then both equations also have &quot;<i>S</i>&quot;, which is basically the amount of scientists who&#x27;re working.<p>The big difference is that the exponential-case (which the 2020-paper linked above assumed) also includes a factor of &quot;<i>A</i>&quot; -- this is, the ideas. So, does it follow that &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot; multiply how fast scientists produce more &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot;? For example, if a scientist is working in a society that has 100 times more &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot;, then would that scientist produce new &quot;<i>ideas</i>&quot; 100 times faster?<p>If <i>YES</i>, then the exponential-form would seem appropriate. But if <i>NO</i>, then the linear-form would seem appropriate.<p>---<p>EDIT: Skimming a few more sources, it looks like various folks may be trying to use the same equations&#x2F;data&#x2F;terminology, possibly for different things?<p>In the above-comment, I was mostly trying to comment on the basic-model that seemed to be presented in [this paper (2020) [PDF]](<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.stanford.edu&#x2F;~chadj&#x2F;IdeaPF.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.stanford.edu&#x2F;~chadj&#x2F;IdeaPF.pdf</a> ), which the linked-article seems to be in-response-to.<p>However, it&#x27;s unclear if the definitions cited, including of the variable &quot;<i>A</i>&quot;, were necessarily representative of their usage elsewhere.<p>That said, [the linked-article&#x27;s paper [PDF]](<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pages.stern.nyu.edu&#x2F;~tphilipp&#x2F;papers&#x2F;AddGrowth_macro.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pages.stern.nyu.edu&#x2F;~tphilipp&#x2F;papers&#x2F;AddGrowth_macro...</a> ) starts its Section-5, &quot;<i>Conclusion</i>&quot;, with:<p>&gt; TFP growth is not exponential. New ideas add to our stock of knowledge; they do not multiply it.<p>, which seems to be in-line with the above-comment&#x27;s interpretation from the other-paper.
carapaceabout 3 years ago
If you like this do yourself a favor and grab a copy of Vaclav Smil&#x27;s &quot;Growth - From Microorganisms to Megacities&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mitpress.mit.edu&#x2F;books&#x2F;growth" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mitpress.mit.edu&#x2F;books&#x2F;growth</a>