If by "back on its feet" you mean standing on two wobbly, splintered wooden legs infested with termites, then sure.<p>This is how capital controls work: You control how your currency can be traded, and then of course it closes in on whatever value you've decided upon. Naturally, the value is meaningless and sweeps the underlying problems under the rug, but it makes for great propaganda.<p>Russia has been a Potemkin village for a long time now in so many ways, and it's embarrassing how they've managed to fool the Western public so spectacularly. It feels like the late 80s all over again...
The "back on it's feet" in the title corresponds to "it will not lose 15% of the GDP this year as some economists think, and central bank rate is still at 14% while capital controls are in place" in the body of the article.<p>I invite everyone commenting to consider how a GDP loss of less than 15% mean that things are fine.
This goes to show how inept and inconsistent western leadership has become in terms of policies. Not so long ago, “sanctions don’t work” was the mantra of the political class and Wall Street when there was a trade war with China. And now those same people argued for the most ludicrous types of sanctions that actually hurt their legitimacy long term.<p>Why would countries with emerging market economies hold their reserves in UST and USD when it can be seized without due process? Rule of law was the last thing west has and the leadership across the board are going out of their ways to destroy its legitimacy.<p>Another worrying symptom in much of the western democracy is how the court system is becoming complicit in all this. When individuals of Russian origins were getting their assets seized with no due process whatsoever
, where was the court system in this? I have no sympathy for Russian oligarchs but law should apply for everyone equally. These types of blanket seize gives state powers to set the precedent which in the future they can apply against anyone. Canada already did this to their own people.
Official exchange rate is meaningless as you cannot transfer dollars into or out of Russia. Based on some internal sources (not super exact, but still indicative), I think cash exchange on black market is closer to RUR 150 per USD today.
Russia with it's vast territory is surprisingly self-sufficient and resilient. Their consumers might have shortage of avocados, their oligarchs will have net worth cut from dozens of billions to single billions. They will evolve into something different and then Germany, Netherlands, Italy and others will again start pumping money into it. Unfortunately the true loser is Ukraine. Now they're completely dependent on the western world while being outside of its political and military unions, treaties, and organizations. Resentment of their population can lead back to oligarchy and corruption known from 90s and 00s and return to the vicious circle of misery.
I was told the `sanctions` would turn Russia into rubble, instead they ended up improving Ruble's performance, Russia's trade balance & current accounts.
I hope everyone realizes this thread is pure premeditated propaganda. These comments are repeating RT and Sputnik rhetoric which is aimed at muddying the waters. Makes sense to target HN since there are influential people who browse this site.<p>There's nothing about Russia that is "back on its feet". Listen to absolutely any respectable geopolitical expert on the future of Russia and you'll get more or less the same depressing answer.
to be fair most of trade today is overly interconnected for no good reason, i have seen scenarios mentioned where part is made in brazil, shipped to singapore, then assembled in thailand then shipped to usa. but it somehow comes cheaper than assembling in brazil and shipping to usa because of existing volume or something. but that's very shortsighted. Sure free market is efficient. But what it's not is forward looking. Govt can step in kick start reactions which leads to enough volume from brazil to usa to make that economical as well. but it'd have advantage of less fragile supply chain and more env friendly process....
TL;DR Putin is trying to look strong by fabricating the USD/RUB exchange rate, and that's understandable: with his army and even his own body falling apart, that meaningless number is the only thing he still can control.
There's this Twitter thread in response: <a href="https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1522751751681904640.html" rel="nofollow">https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1522751751681904640.html</a><p>TL;DR: the article is technically kind of correct, but actually very wrong on the substance