The answer seems very straightforward: the vaccines have at best minimal effect on preventing infection after a few months (some data, including the Walgreens long-term data, suggest negative efficacy after about 4-5 months).<p>Since lockdowns don't and can't last forever, and the virus isn't going to go away, infection rates now are highest in places that had fewer infections in the past -- in immunocompetent adults, at least, recovery from infection confers much longer-lasting and robust immunity than the vaccine (which is only presenting spikes)<p>This is the reason that right now, world wide, several of the biggest hot spots are places that "did well" early on by having draconian lockdowns -- they have a higher proportion of the population who weren't exposed initially, back when the virus was less transmissible and lockdowns could somewhat reduce spread.<p>The problem with the lockdown strategy was always that someday you have to come back outside, and the virus will wait as long as it takes. (And then also, we have pushed the virus to become more transmissive to the point where lockdowns can't really prevent spread anymore (which is why everywhere but China has given up on them))