As much as I have always had zero faith in Tether since the beginning I've also been reading about how it's going to blow up for about just as long. Here is an article from 5 years ago <a href="https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-the-fan-with-tether-f59f92fd8dca" rel="nofollow">https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-t...</a>
HN posters have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 0 Tether blow ups.<p>More seriously, it's mostly seething while reposting the same stuff with this article potentially holding the record for being short enough to not even repeat most of the usual let alone add anything compared to the pages and pages of previous posts on the topic[0]. Which doesn't mean it won't blow up, just that those discussions are particularly motivated and low quality.<p>0. <a href="https://hn.algolia.com/?q=tether" rel="nofollow">https://hn.algolia.com/?q=tether</a>
The 2020/2021 bubble is going to look like a big missed opportunity for the crypto industry to get Tether's books right. It might have been their one and only chance to find enough dollars to actually make their backing 1:1. Now that that bubble is in the past and future bubbles are at the mercy of both public sentiment and macroeconomic conditions, Tether just has to hope that a majority of USDT stays "on the sidelines" and doesn't actually get withdrawn into the real economy. They won't necessarily implode like UST but the possibility hangs over every downturn and panic.
> Any exchange with USDT-denominated crypto prices will see those prices explode, as there will be few sellers of crypto for a soon-to-be-worthless asset.<p>This will also blow up arbitrage bots that move tokens between exchanges, as they quickly and automatically pour coins into a defaulted exchange. A fun “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller” risk in what’s supposed to be a risk free trade.
Tether was invented because crypto couldn't find legitimate outflows through traditional banking institutions. So, converting to fiat was impossible.<p>Tether and other stable coins came along and said: we'll keep $1 USD for every token we have, so you don't need to cash out your crypto as fiat to see how much it's worth — just trade it for a stable coin!<p>So, Bitcoin isn't actually worth $30k+, it's worth $30k+ in stable coins because that's what it's traded in. It's only connection to fiat is stable coins.<p><pre><code> if ($1 !== $1) // i.e. Tether is a scam that's not fully backed
All crypto will experience a MASSIVE crash
</code></pre>
The first wave of the massive crash will be due to a loss of confidence in stable coins, the second wave will be a massive panic at not being able to get out of the market fast enough because there's not enough liquidity, and the third
wave will be structural problems revealing themselves because most crypto platforms/ecosystems are codependent on each other (massive cross-investments, promissory notes, shared accounts, weird accounting practices, and tons of leveraged bets).<p>When the fiat inflows stop and instead try to reverse, it's going to be wild.
Does anyone else not care about cold takes like this? Even if you know something is going to crash, the important bit is knowing when. Guess what, Google, Facebook, and Netflix aren’t going to be around in a trillion years. Shocking, I know.
Looking at your Twitter, it seems a more apt article would be covering Solana's failure to function as a decentralized blockchain, rather than the same tired re-hashed Tether fud that most new crypto participants parrot.<p><a href="https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2020/12/04/solana-devs-call-all-hands-on-deck-as-unknown-bug-stops-block-production/" rel="nofollow">https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2020/12/04/solana-devs-call-al...</a><p><a href="https://solana.com/news/04-30-22-solana-mainnet-beta-outage-report-mitigation" rel="nofollow">https://solana.com/news/04-30-22-solana-mainnet-beta-outage-...</a>
Tether speculation aside, this is a very low quality post. HN bias of crypto is the only reason this piece achieves first page<p>There are so many interesting things to discuss about Tether, for instance, I would like to know the insides of how Tether is providing shadow banking to crypto exchanges and how does it mean for future scenarios<p>Anyone has anything shareable?
I feel like Tether wanted to prove, once again, that the entire system is illusory anyway just like how the Bretton Woods system ended in 1971 (no more convertibility of USD into gold).<p>As long as people use USD effectively, who cares whether or not it is backed by actual gold?
Disagree. Everyone already knows about the Tether scam, so the risk is priced in. Nobody will really lose confidence as everyone expects it to blow up for a decade now. Secondly, people will just switch to USDC.
No way it blows up. Too many people have a vested interest in keeping it alive. Tether probably could have blown up years ago. At this point, there are definitely unseen and unknown backers who would prevent it.