I believe it. My experience is that prices have spiked in nice suburbs. Like from $200k-400k in three years, even though overall metro population hasn’t spiked.<p>I don’t think this is a bubble, I think it’s a readjustment by people who don’t need to drive any more. I’m waiting for in city prices to crater a bit, but it’s been interesting and seems quite different from the 2008 housing crisis that seemed to be a bit more BS.<p>I’m looking for “pop up exurbs” that are specifically started for this but it seems like home prices are super expensive in the $500-1M and no one is trying to build $100k houses in the middle of nowhere any more.
So NBER is the top for economic research. They’re who declares recessions with some historical authority.<p>But also:
“NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.”<p>True but I’d read a nber working paper with much more care than any newspaper.<p>Edit/tldr:
“Our results suggests that house price growth over the pandemic reflected a change in fundamentals rather than a speculative bubble, and that fiscal and monetary stimulus were less important factors. This implies that policy makers need to pay close attention to the evolution of remote work as an important determinant of future house price growth and inflation.“