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‘Your Map Is Wrong’

96 pointsby p2paialmost 3 years ago

17 comments

gnfargblalmost 3 years ago
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;m2Ab1" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;m2Ab1</a>
robocatalmost 3 years ago
Full text:<p><pre><code> ‘Your Map Is Wrong’ – P2P.AI On stage with John Battelle and Tim O’Reilly at the 2010 Web2.0 Summit, Mark Zuckerberg stared at the Summit backdrop, that had a map with various consumer technology areas that have been ‘conquered’, charted out. “Your Map is Wrong,” Zuckerberg said. “The biggest part of the map has to be uncharted territory — this map makes it seem like it’s zero-sum, but it’s not. We’re building value, not just taking it away from someone else.” (Source) “It is not a zero-sum game” is something we tend to forget as we start competing in the marketplace. There is this beauty of economics – you don’t have to make anyone poorer in order for you to become richer. Wealth is not a fixed pie (PG). Steve Jobs famously said that there is no point in asking the customer what they need because they wouldn’t know until it is given to them. That is classic uncharted territory. None of us knew we needed Steve’s devices until they were given to us. The next time you look at a map, look for the uncharted territory. Without that, your view of the map is most definitely wrong.</code></pre>
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cehrlichalmost 3 years ago
Zuckerberg is fundamentally right [1], and I think it&#x27;s a good observation that many people fail to make.<p>But I think it&#x27;s companies other than Facebook&#x2F;Meta that are creating the new value.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;clickhole.com&#x2F;heartbreaking-the-worst-person-you-know-just-made-a-gr-1825121606&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;clickhole.com&#x2F;heartbreaking-the-worst-person-you-kno...</a>
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carbadtraingoodalmost 3 years ago
&gt; There is this beauty of economics – you don’t have to make anyone poorer in order for you to become richer.<p>At any appreciable scale I disagree with this, or at least believe this ignores a whole lot of complexity.<p>Like, it totally ignores how profits are allocated within a company, for instance. Jeff Bezos got richer by making his employees poorer, for instance. He could have chosen to make his employees richer at the expense of making himself poorer.<p>It also seems to ignore the extractive elements of companies. Whether we are extracting raw minerals, agricultural products, or manufacturing capacity.
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m0lluskalmost 3 years ago
The product that lifted Apple out of mediocrity and into the public eye was the iPod. The iPod, especially in its initial release, had a feature list that was explicitly derived from the failings of competing products. The idea was to take and dominate the mobile music player market. All of the biggest power moves Steve Jobs made were about eating someone else&#x27;s lunch.
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iammjmalmost 3 years ago
”We’re building value, not just taking it away from someone else.”<p>Bullshit. Meta&#x27;s whole business is predation on user&#x27;s attention. If I am scrolling their stupid page, then I am not scrolling some other stupid page. This is as zero-sum as it gets.
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nicocoalmost 3 years ago
&gt;None of us knew we needed Steve’s devices until they were given to us.<p>I have recently been given a $2500 toy by $EMPLOYER$ and I still don&#x27;t need it.<p>Personal anecdote aside, is this post seriously advocating for creating needs from scratch?
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_Algernon_almost 3 years ago
&quot;We’re building value&quot; in the mouth of Zuckerberg has to be the joke of the day.<p>Destroying democracy isn&#x27;t creating value.
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masswerkalmost 3 years ago
There&#x27;s much confusion in this.<p>The map is about uncharted business opportunities, ie. introducing new competitors.<p>Yes, consumer products (in contrast to goods that enable buyers to generate income) are competing for buyers&#x27; budgets. This is actually quite literally a zero-sum game. (There&#x27;s only a rather limited probability that your income will automatically increase as you buy a new TV set, in order to make up for it.) What these budgets are, is rather a matter of macroeconomics, which remain entirely untouched by the article.<p>Finally, Jobs&#x27; statement is about the validity of market research as the sole driving input for innovation and development. (Going back to the map, it&#x27;s as if we would be mapping undiscovered species: gorilla – checked, found that, okapi – checked, tripedal swan – not found yet, monopod – not found yet, etc. This quite Borgesesque chart would be able to map any successes possible in advance. Therefor, we would know that it makes no sense to look into the seas, as there are no unchecked species left there. However, product development is neither a zero-sum game nor is there a finite pool of ideas, nor is it defined or limited by what we already know. Chances are, the optimum hasn&#x27;t been reached yet, nor does everybody know what this may look like, otherwise, there&#x27;d be little incentive to innovate at all.)<p>I have a hard time even wondering how these things should be connected. At best, you could link the map to the &quot;known unknowns&quot;, but, going with Jobs, you&#x27;d have to admit that this is not a map at all, but a rather weak metaphor. Meaning, as a map is all about navigating the known world, it is of little help for imagining what may be beyond it. (The known existence of uncharted territories is rather an invitation to go there and find what may be found there in order to increase that portion of the sum, which is accessible to me.) But, we&#x27;d have to admit also that this insight doesn&#x27;t revolutionize macroeconomics, as these are on an entirely different level. In a sense, the map in the first example is more about a sweeping spotlight, highlighting those areas where budgets are momentarily spent.
gumbyalmost 3 years ago
There are big opportunities in the blank parts of the map, but we only remember the very few survivors. People rarely know they need the new product (remember the apocryphal Henry Ford quote: &quot;If I asked people what they want they&#x27;d say a faster horse&quot;).<p>A friend of mine who is a VC told me years ago, &quot;I only get to meet crazy people: either they have a completely new product, and so will run out of runway before they manage to get the plane airborne, or they are going into an existing market, where the incumbents will crush the aircraft before it gets enough speed to leave the ground.&quot; Despite the amusing language it was a useful perspective.
chris_wotalmost 3 years ago
I’m curious why anyone takes inspiration from Zuckerberg.
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lucideeralmost 3 years ago
&gt; <i>Wealth is not a fixed pie (PG).</i><p>I&#x27;ve read a fair bit of PG&#x27;s writing but hadn&#x27;t dug into The Pie Fallacy referenced here. Wow, what utter nonsense. I&#x27;ve certainly not agreed with everything PG comes out with but this is a new logical low. And it&#x27;s not just the usual problem of an oversimplified analogy not accurately representing more complex systems, the analogy[0] isn&#x27;t even internally consistent with itself.<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.paulgraham.com&#x2F;wealth.html#f4n" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.paulgraham.com&#x2F;wealth.html#f4n</a>
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nostromoalmost 3 years ago
It&#x27;s interesting to apply Zuckerberg&#x27;s views to his company 12 years later.<p>Meta&#x27;s actions towards social media make it seem like it&#x27;s now a zero-sum game. They copy features from Snapchat and TikTok, or buy companies like WhatsApp and Instagram, precisely because those companies are taking value away from Facebook.<p>The whole metaverse thing is a touch different. It does look like they&#x27;re trying to build new value there -- of course, who knows if they&#x27;ll pull it off.
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balderdashalmost 3 years ago
Sounds like an allusion to blue ocean strategy<p>“ BLUE OCEANS, in contrast, denote all the industries not in existence today – the unknown market space, untainted by competition. In blue oceans, demand is created rather than fought over. There is ample opportunity for growth that is both profitable and rapid.”<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.blueoceanstrategy.com&#x2F;what-is-blue-ocean-strategy&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.blueoceanstrategy.com&#x2F;what-is-blue-ocean-strateg...</a>
registeredcornalmost 3 years ago
&gt;there is no point in asking the customer what they need because they wouldn’t know until it is given to them.<p>Although I understand the sentiment, I have to disagree with it. The mindset that people are either: uninformed, misinformed, or unaware of what they need is a kind of idea that pushes one towards a sort of syndrome that assumes:<p>1) The public, as a whole, is too stupid to think for themselves<p>2) The public, as a whole, needs YOU to show them how &quot;forward thinking&quot; (smart) you are (and how stupid they are)<p>If we draw out that line of thinking a bit further, it also seems to hint at this tedious Western idea that, &quot;If I don&#x27;t do this, no one else will&quot;. In my view, that is not so much an entrepreneurial mindset, and moreso sheer, unrestrained arrogance. It is a roundabout way of saying, &quot;No one else will ever do this, because only I CAN do this.&quot; It assumes that you are the defacto - the ONLY - creator of new things.<p>I dislike that because although there surely are stupid people in the world, however, we are also PART of that public. This mindset works more to separate us from &quot;the horde&quot; and throws us into this &quot;put upon&quot; position, that it is <i>only</i> by our own doing that any progress can possibly be made. This is illogical and irrational. There are surely thousands upon thousands of others who are willing, able, and trying to achieve the same goals. Of those many thousands, surely there are hundreds among them that could design and implement it far better than ourselves. The only differentiating factor then, is:<p>1) Marketing<p>2) Market dominance<p>3) Profitability<p>TL;DR people know what sucks in life. They know this instinctively because they live their life every single day. They know what could be done better. Thinking that &quot;only I can show it to them&quot; in a fancy little package leads to an overwhelming amount of arrogance. It ignores competitors. It ignores that we are a PART of the public. This kind of mindset is detrimental, if not outright <i>counter</i> to its own goals. The focus must instead be on improving implementation, design, and ease of use.
Comeviusalmost 3 years ago
Let me repeat myself for the thousandth time, just because something is new it doesn&#x27;t mean that it&#x27;s useful or valuable. Charting new territories, experimenting inevitably gets you the wrong answer most of the time. Innovation implies both invention and commercialization.<p>Registering a domain called p2p.ai to lure venture capital trying to show up early for a new potentially lucrative Ponzi scheme is not innovation, unless pumping and dumping is a commercial activity.
imtringuedalmost 3 years ago
What if the inverse is true? Someone (maybe Meta, maybe someone else) is playing a zero sum game and now you are forced to bake a bigger pie otherwise your slice gets smaller.