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Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

305 pointsby kaboroalmost 3 years ago

27 comments

slowmovintargetalmost 3 years ago
The Three Trends (according to the article):<p>1. Medium: text -&gt; images -&gt; video -&gt; 3D graphics -&gt; VR<p>2. AI: time -&gt; rank -&gt; recommend -&gt; generate<p>3. UI: click -&gt; scroll -&gt; tap -&gt; swipe -&gt; autoplay<p>By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers of the brain... but not by much.<p>Makes me wonder if there&#x27;s a market for the equivalent of health food where we go back to social media and deliberately avoid &quot;recommendation media&quot; (which may be the most important two words in the entire post).
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strogonoffalmost 3 years ago
&gt; That’s because the company correctly intuited a significant gap between its users stated preference — no News Feed — and their revealed preference, which was that they liked News Feed quite a bit. The next fifteen years would prove the company right.<p>Stop right there. What you mean is that their corporate wallets like it. These companies delude themselves if they consider “spend more time in the app” as an indicator for users liking it, in no sane world it is true.<p>I like Mail.app because I need to spend so little time in it to get the most value out. I hate Instagram because it happens all the time that I missed a friend’s post because I didn’t scroll far enough.<p>Curiously enough, this self-centered self-delusion only happens in UI teams of pseudo-free double-sided market “products” where you have to keep viewing ads to make the corp money.<p>This business model also breaks how the market is supposed to work—the actual users and paying customers are now separate groups, users cannot vote with their wallets (or even leave, because the offering is free and my friends are here so the moat for competitors is infinite), and company’s interests are not aligned with theirs.
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rcontialmost 3 years ago
&gt; I saw someone recently complaining that Facebook was recommending to them…a very crass but probably pretty hilarious video. Their indignant response [was that] “the ranking must be broken.” Here is the thing: the ranking probably isn’t broken. He probably would love that video, but the fact that in order to engage with it he would have to go proactively click makes him feel bad. He doesn’t want to see himself as the type of person that clicks on things like that, even if he would enjoy it.<p>I found this comment super-insightful. I generally <i>hate</i> online videos with a passion. I DO NOT click &quot;recommended posts&quot; or ads or videos or what I consider garbage. But that doesn&#x27;t mean I don&#x27;t sometimes get interested in a thumbnail I see until I realize what &quot;they&#x27;re&quot; trying to get me to click on.
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photochemsynalmost 3 years ago
You have to dig through this entire article to get to the punchline, but here it is:<p>&gt; &quot;These AI challenges, I would add, apply to monetization as well: one of the outcomes of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency changes is that advertising needs to shift from a deterministic model to a probabilistic one; the companies with the most data and the greatest amount of computing resources are going to make that shift more quickly and effectively, and I expect Meta to be top of the list. None of this matters, though, without engagement.&quot;<p>Relevant quote:<p>&gt; &quot;The junk merchant doesn&#x27;t sell his product to the consumer, he sells the consumer to his product. He does not improve and simplify his merchandise. He degrades and simplifies the client.&quot; ― William S. Burroughs, Naked Lunch<p>This is slightly more complex with the social media business model: the product is the viewer, rather like a fish. The heroin-like bait to catch the viewer is the stream of short distractive entertainment content. The actual client buys the fish (the viewer) from the social media outfit. The actual client is an advertiser out to sell a product, a government out to push propaganda, a politician out to get votes, etc.<p>The more interesting aspect of this is that the clients might be paying the social media providers to control the content stream as a means of manipulating their audience. Weapons manufacturers might want Facebook&#x2F;Instagram&#x2F;Twitter to bury anti-war content; corporate media giants might want independent outlets booted off the recommendation algorithm results; established political parties might want independents hidden from view; etc<p>It&#x27;s very plausible that this monetization model - i.e. not just the delivery of targeted advertising content to the &#x27;engaged&#x27; audience, but also the targeted removal of competing content as a kind of shadow control of what that audience gets to see, is part of the revenue stream of Meta, Google, Twitter, etc.<p>Of course, people will agree that China is doing this with TikTok, but many tend to get uncomfortable if asked if the US government and major corporations are also playing this game on Twitter, Google, Instagram, Facebook, and Reddit.
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mjamesaustinalmost 3 years ago
Does an addict &quot;like&quot; the thing they are addicted to? Or have the chemical responses in their brain been manipulated to the advantage of the person selling the addiction?<p>Recommendation media is the perfection of a system that uses our dopamine response to control the behavior of those viewing it. At some point, I think we can agree that this isn&#x27;t good for those consuming the content, especially as research shows that increased consumption decreases feelings of happiness and increases loneliness.
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benjaminwoottonalmost 3 years ago
There is something about the TikTok style swiping videos which just hits differently.<p>I am far from the demographic for TikTok, but find it super addictive so just keep it off my phone.<p>I barely use Instagram, but having checked in a few times recently I find myself mindlessly swiping their “Reels” for hours before pulling myself away from it.<p>YouTube is my goto timewaste, but now when I pick it up on mobile I find myself in their “Shorts” feature which is the same kinda thing.<p>Just that cycle of short videos in rapid fire…. humour, interesting fact, attractive woman, aspirational products, beautiful scenery, political argument then back around the cycle again is just like digital crack.<p>Just say no!
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andsoitisalmost 3 years ago
<i>That’s because the company correctly intuited a significant gap between its users stated preference — no News Feed — and their revealed preference, which was that they liked News Feed quite a bit. The next fifteen years would prove the company right.</i><p>That is also why you don&#x27;t rely solely on your own preferences and behaviors for deciding what product features to build.<p>Also interesting:<p><i>1. The Pre-Internet ‘People Magazine’ Era<p>2. Content from ‘your friends’ kills People Magazine<p>3. Kardashians&#x2F;Professional ‘friends’ kill real friends<p>4. Algorithmic everyone kills Kardashians<p>5. Next is pure-AI content which beats ‘algorithmic everyone’</i>
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outsidethepartyalmost 3 years ago
“the company correctly intuited a significant gap between its users stated preference — no News Feed — and their revealed preference, which was that they liked News Feed quite a bit.”<p>I think what it actually revealed is that you can sometimes force people to accept something other than their stated preference, if you do it gradually enough and leave them no choice in the matter.
pixl97almost 3 years ago
&gt;The payoff, though, will not be “power” for these small creators: the implication of entertainment being dictated by recommendations and AI instead of reputation and ranking is that all of the power accrues to the platform doing the recommending.<p>This is what these companies want. Take the power away from a few ultra powerful users (Kardashians for example), and retain that power for themselves.
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thenerdheadalmost 3 years ago
A good perspective on the ever-shifting mediums.<p>Isn&#x27;t the whole premise of modern social media to get you to engage in stuff you would not normally engage in out of societal norms, but is data driven to prove you can&#x27;t look away?<p>Most modern &quot;personalized infinite feeds&quot; are preying on these psychological tricks where we can&#x27;t look away from something shocking, seductive, or comforting. i.e. show something painful and then show something pleasureful to play games with your dopamine and adrenaline.<p>Technology will continue to get more persuasive until we find moderation with it. The medium will continue to evolve and we&#x27;ll continue to increase our screentime year over year cutting into our sleep and work until we do so.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Persuasive_technology" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Persuasive_technology</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;nccdphp&#x2F;dnpao&#x2F;multimedia&#x2F;infographics&#x2F;getmoving.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;nccdphp&#x2F;dnpao&#x2F;multimedia&#x2F;infographics&#x2F;ge...</a><p>I even wrote a book on this topic from the perspective of a millennial. While most of my mental health issues were because of my addiction to the internet&#x2F;technology&#x2F;media, I can only begin to wonder how this fares to the rest of the world given some of the known statistics about depression, anxiety, self-harm, and more at younger ages.
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personjerryalmost 3 years ago
If you&#x27;re an innovator and think along this trend, then you&#x27;re fighting the fight in the trenches where Facebook and TikTok are already embedded and winning, and AI already promises to win the next round.<p>For me, the question is where can there be a shift that causes the existing competition to become derailed altogether? And how can you help induce such a change, and ride the wave?<p>For example, imagine a social shift away from the &quot;online all the time&quot; trend to &quot;hanging out with people IRL&quot;, riding the end-of-covid wave.
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sytsealmost 3 years ago
Great article. The author mentions: &quot;Machine learning models can now create text and images for zero marginal cost&quot;. Another step was just taken in this direction with TikTok launching an &#x27;AI greenscreen&#x27; based on text prompts <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;08&#x2F;15&#x2F;tiktok-in-app-text-to-image-ai-generator&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;08&#x2F;15&#x2F;tiktok-in-app-text-to-imag...</a>
nassimsoftwarealmost 3 years ago
I don&#x27;t think we have solved image generation with DALLE-2 yet. There are still many challenges before we move on to video:<p>- generating drawing that upon close inspection don&#x27;t have obvious defects.<p>- generate hand drawn text.<p>- being able to replicate the same character along multiple angles consistently with the same style.<p>I feel like this is going to become increasingly hard because there are many things in drawing that can&#x27;t be capture quite well with words.<p>It&#x27;s analogous to code being more expressive than no-code drag and drop.
rcontialmost 3 years ago
My question is, what happens to social media when it stops being social? I _liked_ the fact that everyone I knew in college was on Facebook, and _disliked_ having to remember what silly username my friend was using on Twitter this week, or how I knew this Joe Blow person I followed at some point for some reason.<p>I _like_ seeing my friends&#x27; vacation photos and other friends commenting on them.<p>I _hate_ how reels and stories move from social to broadcast. Why can&#x27;t my friend group comment on an IG story and have a discussion? Why does it have to be in DMs? (Unless we do that stupid thing where you share out a scene from a story (ugh, yes, I realize how old it makes me that i don&#x27;t even know what to call it) and tag everyone involved)<p>The less a platform has the _kinds of content_ that drives the network effect, the less reason for there to be a network at all. It just becomes TV. And I use that comparison purposefully; television is extremely popular, I watch plenty of it myself. But without the <i>active</i> network effects of social media, what drives user-to-user engagement? How do you get new people to sign up, beyond &quot;hey, look at this tiktok I saw&quot;? Or is that enough?
gzer0almost 3 years ago
&quot;The implication of entertainment being dictated by recommendations and AI instead of reputation and ranking is that all of the power accrues to the platform doing the recommending.&quot;<p>I found this quite profound.
upupandupalmost 3 years ago
im afraid this short attention optimized dopamine manipulation system is going to be deterimental for our collective mental and cognitive capacity, especially with covid.<p>in particular im fearful of the impact on young developing minds, this is literally setting them up for failure or maybe this is the end goal?
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rchaudalmost 3 years ago
The tweets from Sam Lessin quoted in the article seem deeply dystopian, particularly the idea that FB&#x2F;IG&#x27;s fundamental problem today is interface-based, something Tiktok has apparently solved. Currently, users actually have to make a decision to click to view something, e.g. comments on a post.<p>Infinite scroll UI and pageless SPA frameworks fixed this to an extent, but apparently that&#x27;s not enough anymore. Today, the algorithm &quot;knows&quot; that you want to watch this trashy sensationalist video, even though you aren&#x27;t physically tapping the button to view it.<p>So Tiktok&#x27;s format of fullscreen autoplaying video is designed to pass that final hurdle: remove decision making from the user entirely. Throw AI-recommended (and soon, AI-generated) material at them, forever, until they physically exit the app.<p>No wonder Zuck wanted a Facebook phone back in 2011. iOS and Android actually let you exit the FB app if you wanted to.
CognitiveLensalmost 3 years ago
The &#x27;Medium&#x27; trend seems to most off to me, but I&#x27;ve seen it repeated as truth by a number of people<p>Medium: text -&gt; images -&gt; video -&gt; 3D graphics -&gt; VR<p>A lot of people&#x2F;companies don&#x27;t seem to appreciate that the appeal of images and video come from the fact that they represent &#x27;real&#x27; (or at least staged-real) events&#x2F;people&#x2F;places. Animated videos and scenes from movies seem like categorically different kinds of things, less likely to get attention in news feeds other than as fodder for memes.<p>3D graphics + VR are never going to be real, and I suspect will never (or not for a long time) have the engagement of images + videos despite being ostensibly more &#x27;immersive&#x27;.
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rsweeney21almost 3 years ago
The leap from &quot;recommending&quot; content to &quot;generating&quot; content reminds me of the leap from cars that we drive on the ground and cars that fly.<p>It seems like the future, but it&#x27;s much further away than we think.
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rossdavidhalmost 3 years ago
&quot;That was the problem with Twitter: it just wasn’t convenient for nearly enough people to figure out how to follow the right people.&quot;<p>This was never the problem with Twitter. The problem with Twitter is that it has no option to turn of retweets globally; don&#x27;t show me retweets from anyone, only original tweets. If it had this, so that I would only see original content from people I follow, I would be back on Twitter.
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xrdalmost 3 years ago
For me the biggest reason to never install apps is that with my browser I never am force fed videos. I have to click them. If it&#x27;s an app, they can shove them down my throat with autoplay. Not so with current browser policies.<p>The world is going to shift to sheeple only using apps (shapples?) and those only using services inside a browser (browseers?). Browseers will be much happier and live richer lives.
m3kw9almost 3 years ago
The problem is current AI generation contain no creativity, they are trained from human made data set. And machine generated data set is also learnt from human data
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ape4almost 3 years ago
We hate it but we also wish we&#x27;d invented it.
KaoruAoiShihoalmost 3 years ago
A little bit dubious about the last one, it doesn&#x27;t seem like a straightforward progression to me. But the first 2 for sure.
ansmithz42almost 3 years ago
This is exactly &quot;Fahrenheit 451&quot;.
fleddralmost 3 years ago
There&#x27;s so much wrong with this trend.<p>First, from a purely operational and pragmatic point of view, I&#x27;m stunned how paranoid well established networks are about the Tiktok competition, willing to make existential changes to mimic them whilst potentially destroying themselves.<p>Why can&#x27;t there be differentiation? Why not improve your own network, fix its many issues, allow for some co-existence? &quot;Innovate or die&quot; is an exaggeration for Facebook and Youtube, they aren&#x27;t going anywhere anytime soon.<p>Second, I&#x27;m shocked (but not really) how not a single of these companies (or governments) take a shred of responsibility in even thinking about the human impact. There&#x27;s already a laundry list of serious problems associated with social media and the trajectory is to just escalate it even more? A machine rapidly feeding you short videos, many to be AI generated, as the ultimate &quot;solution&quot;?<p>Third, we&#x27;ve already established how the combination of social media and misinformation can lead to fatalities (example: FB and Myanmar), political interference, escalating polarization and instability, and more. The only counter force, ineffective as it may be, would be real users pushing back and trying to &quot;correct&quot; things.<p>The next generation has no such pushbacks. It&#x27;s all just one recommendation engine with ultimate power. Do we even know what the fuck we&#x27;re doing?
k12sossealmost 3 years ago
This must be the whole &quot;medium is the message&quot; thing he was talking about