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How random can you be? (2019)

123 pointsby amoghsover 2 years ago

23 comments

Bakaryover 2 years ago
Creepily reminiscent of this short story:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;436150a" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;436150a</a>
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ptooover 2 years ago
My solution was to generate random sentences in my head. I then iterate through the letters of each sentence, and if the letter is M or later in the alphabet, I select right. If the letter is before M in the alphabet I select left.
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TrinaryWorksTooover 2 years ago
If you want to hack it, give it a binary de Bruijn sequence with alphabet size k=2. Since it looks to follow whichever pattern already exists, and de bruijn sequences minimize existing patterns, it always beats the game.<p>I used <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;combos.org&#x2F;bruijn" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;combos.org&#x2F;bruijn</a> and pressed left for zero and right for one.<p>Using rule Grandmama creates close to a perfectly straight line up and to the right when you start from the first 1 in the sequence.<p>Try: 1001000101010011010000110010110110001110101110011110111111000000<p>where 1 is right and 0 is left.
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PinkMilkshakeover 2 years ago
A decent strategy is to use the results of the last click to choose your next click. Win money, click right, lose money, click left.
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coldteaover 2 years ago
I once wore a smoked herring as a tie to a black suit event.<p>That&#x27;s how random I can be!
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carlmrover 2 years ago
So I did 128 presses and it was 48% right at guessing me. I guess I&#x27;m quite random, since ~50% is what you&#x27;d expect for an actual coin toss.
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archi42over 2 years ago
The prediction is deterministic, so you can adapt to it and &quot;beat&quot; it every time. Though intuitively and without looking at the implementation, I obviously am not a good adversary: Lowest I reached was 43% after ~50 inputs, stopped at 47% after 103.<p>With just tapping &quot;randomly&quot;, it was looking good until I got 52% at 250 inputs. From there on it went steep downward: 59% at 500 but 57% again at 1000 (I changed how I tapped at the 500 mark; else it would have declined even more).
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machina_ex_deusover 2 years ago
At the heart of Bells inequality in physics is the assumption of free will, that the experimentalist is &quot;free&quot; to choose a detector setting.<p>Yet when faced with the task of actually generating random numbers, humans fail miserably. Some how the failure to generate random numbers isn&#x27;t seen as a lack of free will by anyone.<p>But in the context of quantum physics, the experimenters &quot;freedom&quot; to do something most humans can&#x27;t actually do is a given, and denying it is &quot;super determinism&quot; and anti science.<p>It&#x27;s funny that physicist take the freedom of their random choices as a given when a simple experiment shows they don&#x27;t have such freedom.
rowanG077over 2 years ago
It&#x27;s incredibly easy to cheat this since you actually, in real-time, can see the feedback of how random it thinks you are.
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synergy7over 2 years ago
There is an example in Mathematica [1] that illustrates a similar point using Rock-Paper-Scissors game. It uses a very simple strategy to predict human opponent [2], but it appears to work well. (Although, at the moment the demonstration does not seem to be working at all (I tried it in Firefox and Chrome)).<p>[1]. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;demonstrations.wolfram.com&#x2F;RockPaperScissorsWithAIPlayer&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;demonstrations.wolfram.com&#x2F;RockPaperScissorsWithAIPl...</a> [2]. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.wolfram.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;01&#x2F;20&#x2F;how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.wolfram.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;01&#x2F;20&#x2F;how-to-win-at-rock-paper...</a>
jwieover 2 years ago
This doesn’t really test randomness.<p>It appears that the guessing output is deterministic using your inputs as it’s inputs and you could figure out as many consecutive inputs you felt like to produce a specific outcome. For instance 6R1L3R inputs forces the game to “guess” wrong each time. It’s not guessing. This isn’t a random input, but it’s perfectly within a reasonable random distribution. Equally random is 10L, which the guesser will guess right each time.<p>Losing to the guesser doesn’t indicate a lack of random input, nor does guessing the opposite of the guesser indicate randomness.<p>We can’t really generate randomness. Only outcomes consistent with some distribution. It’s more of a philosophical point. If you made it it’s not random.
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FartyMcFarterover 2 years ago
What&#x27;s the easiest pseudo-random sequence one can calculate mentally in order to beat this?
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generalizationsover 2 years ago
I pressed right 6 times in a row. Apparently that&#x27;s a very random thing to do.
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plankover 2 years ago
Tried it. Not being random, I earned some virtual money fast (iteration 39: I guessed left (wrong). You pressed right. My guesses are correct 28% of the time (overall).) <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dropbox.com&#x2F;s&#x2F;n46fda7nmm0wi0e&#x2F;20220911_112422.jpg?dl=0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.dropbox.com&#x2F;s&#x2F;n46fda7nmm0wi0e&#x2F;20220911_112422.jp...</a>
kthejoker2over 2 years ago
This is also kind of similar to the Newcomb Problem (read the Solution page for an excellent shott story)<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.greylabyrinth.com&#x2F;puzzle&#x2F;puzzle014" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.greylabyrinth.com&#x2F;puzzle&#x2F;puzzle014</a>
kristopolousover 2 years ago
Adversarially it can be defeated. However, when trying to be faithfully random it does pretty good
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kthejoker2over 2 years ago
The Pudding had a different take on eliciting and measuring randomness<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pudding.cool&#x2F;2022&#x2F;04&#x2F;random&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pudding.cool&#x2F;2022&#x2F;04&#x2F;random&#x2F;</a>
mrsmee89over 2 years ago
This is cool! I had some success winning by tapping to a beat (I changed my choice every time the cadence in the song changed).
ouidover 2 years ago
100000100001100010100111101000111001001011011101100110101011111 and repeat
ameliusover 2 years ago
This might come in handy during boxing and other combat sports.
belterover 2 years ago
Nine,nine,nine,nine,nine,nine...
marginalia_nuover 2 years ago
I was apparently <i>extremely</i> random by counting in binary<p>left<p>right<p>right left<p>right right<p>right left left<p>right left right<p>right right left<p>right right right<p>right left left left<p>etc.
seanhandleyover 2 years ago
potato