A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that.<p>In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad supplies, bad comms, and bad morale. When the russian front in kharkiv collapsed and everyone fled, there were many units just wandering around, and even setting up defensive lines because they didn't know the rest of the force had been routed and that the enemy was already behind them. Forcing people to the front isn't going to change this. Russian strategy has been repeating idiotic assaults on bakhmut for 2 months with no gains while just trying to hold on elsewhere. Ukraine on the other hand has been maintaining a decent momentum from their offensive, taking Lyman, and on the verge of looking to retake Lysychansk and maybe Severodonetsk again. Progress will be relatively slow, but it's not crazy to imagine another wave of collapse.<p>It'll take a long time to get a working army together. I'd bet on Ukraine and western support every day. The only thing that could change the calculus is nuclear weapons.
This is really going to screw Russia for generations. Every young Russian I know has either already left, plans to leave, or has to stay but hates their leader. You don't get your country to turn into a superpower by losing the most educated and skilled of the young generations. I only hope as things get more desperate he doesn't feel trapped lash out with the nukes.
I really hope the russian/kreml/putin war against Ukraine will end in a epic failure for them. I also hope that frozen russian assets in west can be confiscated to build up Ukraine again, russia has to be accountable and pay for all madness and horrific things they have done.
Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas.<p>Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force-multiply like we've never seen in any other armed conflict.
130 points, 3 hours ago, 184 comments<p>Not on the front page or the second page of HN.<p>The comments have been civil, all things considered. These events have been extremely consequential and possibly the root cause of the looming global recession.
It is usually recommended here to read information from sources, here:<p>Address by the President of the Russian Federation (English transcript) [1] (video in Russian, no subs)[2]<p>[1] <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390" rel="nofollow">http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390</a><p>[2] <a href="http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390" rel="nofollow">http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390</a>
Can someone Russian explain what on earth they are thinking? Russia appears to have 10x the casualties as Ukraine, soldiers that doesn't really want to fight, and are currently losing. Yet the leaders think it is a good idea to keep the war going? To me it seems that with the material Ukraine is receiving from the West they will easily retake all territory Russia has occupied.
Russia has no military capabilities to feed and transport so many soldiers, let alone train them, officers are already in Ukraine and probably already dead. It's basically cannon fodder.
Is there any scenario from this point onwards, any at all that results in Russia coming out stronger once the smoke clears?<p>Because I can't see any.<p>Seems to me like the Russian govt are now in a situation where they have no choice but to see this thing through just to try and save face.
Regarding the "Partial" claim: <a href="https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1572498112840695809" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1572498112840695809</a><p>Aeroflot stopped selling air tickets to all Russian men aged 18-65 who don’t have authorization from the military office (voenkomat).
It seems to me that the occupied regions of Ukraine are very vast and cannot be controlled by the number of Russian troops that they now have in Ukraine. Accordingly, more human resources are needed, so they want to close this gap with the help of this call (about 300 thousand soldiers).
Will the winter and the frozen ground give advantages to Russia? When is this likely to happen?<p>I heard that the February invasion was too late and that the thaw was beginning, hampering access.
(CNBC) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced a partial military mobilization in Russia, putting the country's people and economy on a wartime footing as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine continues.<p>In a rare pre-recorded televised announcement, Putin said the West "wants to destroy our country" and claimed the West had tried to "turn Ukraine's people into cannon fodder," in comments translated by Reuters, repeating earlier claims in which he has blamed Western nations for starting a proxy war with Russia.<p>Putin said "mobilization events" would begin Wednesday without providing further details, aside from saying that he had ordered an increase in funding to boost Russia's weapons production, having committed (and lost) a large amount of weaponry during the conflict, which began in late February.
Partial... impartial...<p>There is no such thing as "partial mobilization".<p>There is a law on mobilization, but who cares about laws there days in Russia.<p>The main objective of this mobilization is to call up to 5mln conscripts in the army.<p>This morning, people already started to receive summons in person.
Personally I believe that NATO should occupy the whole of Western Ukraine up to about 100km from the frontline, with a clear warning that any direct fire on NATO troops will result in retaliation. This will free up the Ukrainians to fight Russia on the frontline without worries about Belarus etc.
Putin's approval rating since the war began has been a steady 80%+ (<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/" rel="nofollow">https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...</a>). We don't know yet what September's numbers will look like, but it will likely take a hit from the retreats and losses of territory to the Ukrainians this month. Mobilization is going to drop that further. People are ok supporting a war in the abstract, but less so if they have to go out there and fight themselves. And they'll like it even less when they find that people with connections aren't being called up.<p>Calling for mobilization now gives them a few months to train and get equipped when winter brings fighting to a close. It'd be interesting to see where Russia finds officers for these new troops. Or maybe training/equipment/officers don't matter, if the plan is to use them as cannon fodder.<p>Regardless, Ukraine will find it harder to make progress next year like they've done in the last few weeks. There won't be any fronts that are thinly manned and easy to punch through like Kharkiv was.
It’s hard to see where this ends; should things move toward weakening of the Russian government will he go without attempting to escalate his way out of domestic danger?<p>I think mobilisation and moving toward declaring the special operation a war (more mobilisation) could be the beginnings of that slippery slope.
From where are people getting reliable updates on the ground situation?<p>During the Gulf wars we would get all these "embedded" reporters; seems there aren't any now.
Despite the sad news this thread reads like all technologists of HN suddenly became military professionals and strategists whilst utilising the bubble sort strategy to call out for nuclear war, full scale conflict or just territorial gains.<p>I mean nothing is as simple as it seems...
It seems like every piece of news about this war gets buried in an avalanche of “beware propaganda and misinformation” caveats. But I suppose at this point it is safe to say this has gone quite poorly for Russia so far.
All flights out of Russia are now booked out with millions of people trying to escape mobilisation.<p>If the Western leaders had any foresight, they would come up with a scheme that enables them to do so and drains Putin's manpower. Anything from rebuilding Ukraine to getting them a free ticket to Brazil.<p>Unfortunately, as demonstrated by dependancy on Russian gas, western leaders have the foresight of a frog.<p>The recent visa restrictions only help government propaganda that the West hates the russian people so you must fight.<p>Also braindead decisions like language test centers banning Russians so now you can't get a test to apply for a job or visa.
With individual EU countries being perfectly egoistic and pragmatist, with Germans being in the pockets of Russian oligarchs, this situation overall is heading into catastrophic direction.