Until very recently, I did not believe that there is any chance that China will attempt to invade Taiwan in the near future.<p>Nevertheless, after USA has not remained content to try to cripple the Chinese semiconductor manufacturing industry, but now it pressures Taiwan to stop manufacturing integrated circuits for China, I have become worried for the first time that a Chinese invasion is no longer impossible.<p>If Taiwan does not manufacture Chinese ICs any more, then Taiwan is no longer valuable for China and they do not have any reason to care whether the Taiwanese industry is destroyed, because such a destruction will not change anything for them. This removes one of the most important costs of an invasion decision.
This guy is smart. Many people profit from cold (and hot) war.<p>"Whether you like it or not, America and Europe have a strategic interest in fueling the Ukraine conflict for reputation-building purposes (in addition to any ideological motives). Frankly, this is why I think the US ought to escalate support for Ukraine."
Curious what anyone thinks of this tactical assessment:<p>> tlear 19 days ago | parent | context | un‑favorite | on: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown<p>> [China can't retake Taiwan], not even remotely close any time in the next 20 years at least. Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then.. 155mm hidden under camo/thermal nets, DJI drone rigged with magazines of small bombs.. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Childs play, this would make Diep and Galipoli look like walk in the park.<p>> I would go as far as to say that US Army + Marines + Navy could not land on Taiwan without suffering multiple brigades of attrition AFTER at least a year long blockade and air campaign. It is that hard.<p>> PRC has to surpass US in GDP, then spend 10-20 years of US level military spending, then maybe.<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946" rel="nofollow">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33248946</a>
The article rests on the assumption that Taiwan really is the center of the conflict and the West only defends it out of the goodness of their hearts (or to defend some local economic/strategic advantages such as access to TSMC or an open South China Sea).<p>Following that assumption, the conflict could be instantly defused if some compromise about Taiwan's status on the unification/independence scale could be reached (or where any option to change the status quo would be more costly for all sides than keeping it)<p>I worry that the situation could really be the inverse - that Taiwan is just a flashpoint in a larger US/West vs China conflict which is already well on the way. Another consequence of China's explosive economic growth that the article didn't go into was that China is now becoming a US rival and is openly challenging the international system and the "liberal international order". They are increasingly setting up counter institutions, such as the Silk Road or the SCO and the West sees itself pressured to react to that.<p>As such, I think Biden's "autocracy vs democracy" line was at least getting the scale of the conflict right.
I expect a permanent blockade of Taiwan to prevent inbound sensors and shooters and outbound advanced tech within one year. Today Taiwan and U.S. military are not integrated the way the U.S. is with other Allies and partners: Korea, Japan, NATO, etc. Ukraine is case and point how valuable that integration can be.<p>The PRC will be adamant that Taiwan not receive AI (battlefield mgmt. software, communications, sensors) aid similar to Ukraine.
Your analysis is flawed. The U.S. will not risk a nuclear war over an island it doesn't even recognize as an independent state and has no security treaties with.<p>What Biden says about intervening is just bluff. And China knows this.<p>And then there's the prospect of the Taiwanese not even WANTING to fight their own brethren. Sure, they want to remain independent if they can, but if China decides to invade their armed forces will simply throw away their arms and go home. Do we want our soldiers to lose their lives for a people that hasn't even demonstrated their will to fight for their independence? Fuck that!<p>China is attempting to put its tentacles everywhere, making it extremely costly for Western nations to completely decouple from China economically.<p>For example: Apple is so deep in bed with China that if an invasion were to occur the company would simply go bankrupt. Bankrupt! We're talking about a company with a market valuation of almost $2 trillion!! It would be very hard for the Biden Administration to make that choice. And that's just one U.S. company. There are probably dozens like them in the same boat.<p>From what I gather Volkswagen would face an existential threat if it were banned from selling its cars in China. No way, the Germans would allow that, no matter what the U.S. says.<p>No, there will not be a nuclear war over Taiwan. Merely a few pinpricks in terms of sanctions.