To those of you that are interested in following the war in greater detail, check out the daily updates [1] from the Institute For The Study Of War [2]. There's even a map that updates daily [3].<p>[1]: <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates" rel="nofollow">https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-confli...</a><p>[2]: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_the_Study_of_War</a><p>[3]: <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" rel="nofollow">https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641...</a>
Careful.<p>The Russian Government has made an announcement they are evacuating.<p>The Ukrainian military have stated they're not seeing it actually happen on the ground.<p>They have been saying for some days they suspect it's a trap, and Kherson has not really been evacuated.<p>This announcement could well be just more encouragement to dive in, from the Russians.
It's a trap - while visibly talking about retreating from Kherson, according to Ukrainian intelligence they've actually boosted troop numbers in Kherson in the last 2 weeks (from ~20k to ~30k) and dug into the city very hard.<p>They want the Ukrainians fighting to take ground around Kherson and then spend months fighting street by street (as russians have failed to do in Bakhmut) all under pre-sighted Russian artillery sitting pretty on the south side of the Dniepr.<p>They don't want to blow the dam, or give up Kherson, they want to embroil the ukrainians in a grind like the ukrainians have done to them (and continue to do) in bakhmut, with a prize the ukrainians want (the liberation of Kherson the city and the region).<p>If you're not sure watch Shoigu's announcement of this - one of the most scripted and least convincing 'military' discussion the russians have publicized. The butchers sending drafted men to their death's as meat with nothing but AKs, no training or medicine, and who slaughtered civilians wholesale throughout ukraine are now talking about how much they care about their men and civilians.<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZdW2lRq94" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33ZdW2lRq94</a><p>It's a deadly joke, but some Western media outlets are too excited for a big headline and will print anything that they think people will click on. Asking the ukrainians matters less than getting the headline first. I've already seen headlines that say "RUSSIA RETREATING FROM KHERSON" which aren't true. Russia says they will retreat from kherson, but aside from stripping every washing machine and kiddy train in the region, they have not retreated.
Few notes and stream of consciousness.<p>As a naturalized USA citizen with Russian citizenship, this war has been on my mind 100% of the time since it started.<p>My brother (in Russia) is as they say "Zed-turbo-patrioting" and I am (in USA) horrified at the elaborate seppuku my former country is committing, it's like a (not a very slow train wreck). And my cousin is trying to send me her teenage son so him the hell out of there. Challenging family dynamic to say the least.<p>The Russian army is a clay-legged colossus. All the money for it's weapons has been stolen and turned into fancy real estate and shiny yachts and parked offshore. Rusty AKs, WW2 era artillery, and purchases of Iranian (!?!) weapons? WTF!<p>If China wants to go help itself to a chunk of Siberia, nobody is going to be able to stop it.<p>Regardless of who controls the USA chambers of power, the support of Ukraine will continue, whether financial or via weapons. The money USA and the west has spent on this war is an INCREDIBLY GREAT bargain, I mean, it's f*ng cents on the dollar to utterly annihilate the historical strategic enemy AND! not spend a single soldier? It's brilliant. And the weapons are getting tested. It's like a public field test of superiority of western weapons, the world is watching, and there will not be any Russian weapon system sales anymore...
They've got some precedence in mining/sabotage operations. In WW2 the Soviets knew that the advancing Germans would basically re-use their own headquarters buildings, so they would rig up some pretty obvious trip-wires/mines that the unsuspecting Germans would clear out, not realizing some far more powerful booby trap was installed waiting a command signal.<p><a href="https://www.standingwellback.com/russian-ww2-radio-controlled-explosive-device/" rel="nofollow">https://www.standingwellback.com/russian-ww2-radio-controlle...</a>
No signs of it according to Ukranian side: <a href="https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1590379058885693440" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1590379058885693440</a>
UAF can't exactly chase them all the way to the Dniepr can they? It seems quite obvious that they are trying to bait them to follow, and then blow the Kakhovka dam and wash them all away.
Why is the media reporting like this is actually happening?<p>It’s like they’re naive children. And theres even have other articles talking about how misinformation, intentional confusion and bluffing has been a huge part of the war.<p>Anything the Russians proclaim can only sensibly be taken with extreme skepticism. This is most likely an attempt at a trap
Also worth pointing out that Stremousov, Deputy Head of Kherson region, died today in a supposed car accident (it is told the driver survived). Here’s the acting governor of Kherson confirming it [1]. It smells like the Russians taking out one of their non-cooperating assets, they have done that post-2014 in Donetsk. I guess we’ll have to wait for more details.<p>[1] <a href="https://twitter.com/IntelRepublic/status/1590348327123845123" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/IntelRepublic/status/1590348327123845123</a>