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You can fire 80% of software engineers and the company will survive

80 pointsby victorroninover 2 years ago

51 comments

somesortofthingover 2 years ago
This might be slightly true for a small subset of companies, but given that this is clearly about Twitter, you absolutely can&#x27;t &quot;survive&quot; in any meaningful way. What <i>is</i> possible without 80% of the engineers is keeping the core services running at the current capacity, with no room for dealing with emergent issues. That&#x27;s about it, and that&#x27;s all Twitter has really demonstrated so far.<p>Forget about new products, forget about improvements to existing products, forget infrastructure work&#x2F;cost optimization, forget not having major data breaches regularly, forget mitigating large-scale security vulnerabilities(i.e. log4j), forget being able to capitalize on market trends on a useful timescale, and forget about the ability to deal with situations that require more engineering capacity that your company uses on an average day.<p>Entering &quot;survival mode&quot; and keeping only enough engineering capacity on board to keep the service running on a normal day is implicitly a bet that no emergent events are going to demand more capacity from you than is needed on that normal day. The product might be standing now, but you can&#x27;t do anything useful with a paralyzed company that&#x27;s going to topple over the first time it faces a stiff breeze.
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throwyawayyyyover 2 years ago
Sure, you can cut 80% of anything and things will run just fine for a while. You could even stop paying your bills, and nothing bad would happen for a month or two, as invoices pile up. In fact I&#x27;d guess that you could cut 100% of UX and Product and no one would much notice for a year or so. So, why not do that? Because for all that we talk about short-termism, companies are long-term entities. Shares in a company are valuable now _because they will probably be valuable in 20 years time too_. So such self-mutilation is rare.<p>&gt; And one last thing. The company that has deep enough pockets can survive tons of shit. If you wave a check big enough, you will find people willing to go through hell and back and who will drag the company forward. I believe this is a very important point. I felt that we (software engineers) sometimes have too big egos believing that if enough software engineers left, the company will fall apart. The reality is that (big money) can help navigate quite dire circumstances for companies.<p>Does Twitter have deep pockets? And if it offered you whatever it would take for you to spend some months in hell, do you trust that it would be able to pay? Twitter is in an awful situation, and in sharp distinction to Musk&#x27;s previous near-death experiences, there&#x27;s no government coming to bail him out.
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88913527over 2 years ago
Can you fire 80% of doctors and a hospital will survive? Probably, the janitorial staff will still come in, and the light switch will still light a bulb. As a sibling comment notes, the degree to which employees are expendable and measure of survivability is key. Business types will erroneously think they can fire 80% of the staff, keep the lights on, <i>and</i> keep up new feature development. The biggest risk with this sort of minimizing thinking is thinking you can achieve more with less: you often can&#x27;t, especially when it comes to the large business environments this article specifically carves out (the concept does not apply to small and medium sized businesses).<p>Growth often comes with dead weight. You can&#x27;t 10x your staff overnight and expect the same output per engineer. And as you grow, your organizational structure impacts your architecture (Conway&#x27;s law). The downsizing frequently is an unwinnable scenario, and people need to recognize that going into it.
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ZephyrBluover 2 years ago
Something I&#x27;ve come to believe is that in large tech companies the Pareto principle is not true because only 20% of SWEs are good and the rest suck. More likely, the majority of engineers are blocked in some way from delivering.<p>Dependencies on other teams, management constantly changing their mind, having to put out fires, helping other teams, etc. There are very few teams where this kind of thing doesn&#x27;t happen.<p>Also, something to keep in mind when saying things like &quot;you can fire 80% of your SWEs and survive&quot; is slack. You might survive, but have no slack which means any sort of tail event is going to destroy your company.
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jmuguyover 2 years ago
If you fired 80% of just the developers at Twitter yeah you’re right, it would probably survive at least in the short term. That isn’t what happened. Entire departments serving all sorts of functions were wiped out. Hell you have advertisers, you know… Twitters customers, backing out just bc they can’t get anyone on the phone there. It’s stupid, period.
lamontcgover 2 years ago
&gt; BTW. Figuring it who is the core team is not that complicated. You just ask everybody to name five people who are doing well and who they want to work with again (in the next company). Then, sort employees by votes, and viola, at the top, you will get your true core team (which may not match perfectly to seniority, number of lines of code written, etc.).<p>Doubt.<p>Employees often have very imperfect information into what other employees are doing in their day to day jobs. The team that looks lazy because they don&#x27;t immediately prioritize your bugs and requests may be understaffed compared to the operational load.<p>And unsexy jobs that keep the operation running may be done very well by people who aren&#x27;t part of the most popular kids, but you&#x27;ll wind up missing them once they&#x27;re gone.
lovichover 2 years ago
I think we need to define “survive” to discuss this without just talking past each other.<p>If “survive” means, won’t immediately collapse and can continue on for months to years while extracting value I’d agree. If “survive” instead means that they can’t both do required maintenance to keep the company operating _and_ simultaneously build out new features and aspects of the business, Kim not sure I’m as convinced
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unwise-exeover 2 years ago
<i>BTW. Figuring it who is the core team is not that complicated. You just ask everybody to name five people who are doing well and who they want to work with again (in the next company). Then, sort employees by votes, and viola, at the top, you will get your true core team (which may not match perfectly to seniority, number of lines of code written, etc.).</i><p>---<p>Are those newfangled 360 reviews <i>really</i> that much more effective than other review processes?<p>And of course this fails to account for how <i>nobody</i> likes, say, those meddling busybodies on the security team, or those idiots at the support desk who always make you unplug and restart things before letting you explain what the <i>real</i> issue is; or how <i>everyone</i> likes that one person who always brings donuts and spends more time being friendly with other teams than actually working.
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syrrimover 2 years ago
I think many people would have argued beforehand that twitter in particular was overstaffed, and that you could safely cut large portions of their employees without much loss. In properly run companies, employees are already justified in terms of revenue or other value they bring to the company. If you fire them, you know concretely what the company will lose. Twitter was notoriously unprofitable, and the employees were instead justified in terms of the greenfield work they were doing to bring the company into profitability in the future. Except that clearly wasn&#x27;t happening, and probably would never happen if they continued down the same trajectory. I don&#x27;t think there are many lessons regarding that that generalize to other companies. We might carve out a category of company called a &quot;post-startup&quot;, being a company that has gone through the startup phase of rapid growth in userbase, but that never moved onto the stage of &quot;established company&quot;, owing to a difficulty finding their proper business model. Such a company might reasonably benefit from a large staff reduction. For other companies this is less clear.
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logicalmonsterover 2 years ago
1) I think most software companies can probably survive with far fewer programmers if they were willing to cut dumb features. Are they though? Bloat is kind of a lot of businesses business.<p>2) For what it&#x27;s worth, the Twitter employees let go were not just programmers, but also fulfilled other roles. I&#x27;m not quite sure what percentage of programmers Twitter lost, but I bet they lost a much higher percentage of other roles such as HR and content moderators.<p>&gt; BTW. Figuring it who is the core team is not that complicated. You just ask everybody to name five people who are doing well and who they want to work with again (in the next company).<p>For what it&#x27;s worth, this might yield a misleading answer because it could become a popularity contest.<p>The charismatic guy who plays office politics and tries to make everybody their pal might score highly here, but the smart engineer who just sits down quietly and churns out good features might be forgotten.
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ck2over 2 years ago
How does the joke go?<p><i>&quot;It&#x27;s called medium because most of the articles aren&#x27;t very well done&quot;</i> ?<p>Enough with the twitter analysis already, just let him finish running it into the ground and after he fails to make the first or second billion dollar annual financing payment someone else will finally just take over or sell the domain.
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rosywoozlechanover 2 years ago
Since this claim about company survival after firing 80% of engineers has been presented without evidence, it can be dismissed without evidence. The author doesn&#x27;t seem credible looking at their LinkedIn either.
rhaway84773over 2 years ago
The author is right that money can correct a lot of wrongs, and that’s what we will probably see in Twitter for a while.<p>One of the problems with cutting 80% of the workforce even if you know which 20% is useful and manage to only spare them is that competitors exist. You don’t just need people to make sure your product works, but you also need people to make sure your product runs slightly better than every competitor.<p>An existing social graph is a significant moat, but it’s not foolproof.<p>The problem is that if we assume that the 20% useful people can be identified perfectly, then someone else could build a company that has 25% more useful people than the company that just cut 80% of its staff and probably out deliver you for long enough that they’d be able to easily chip into the moat you’ve built fairly quickly.<p>As an aside, the Pareto principle is often misused and isn’t close to being any sort of law. It applies in vastly fewer situations that it doesn’t apply in…try applying the Pareto principle to the floor of any manufacturing facility, for example.
andrewflnrover 2 years ago
Even if Twitter survives, I think we&#x27;ll find &quot;survive&quot; is a far cry from &quot;provides ROI for $44B&quot;. Anyway, there&#x27;s every indication that Elon took no particular effort to keep the &quot;right&quot; 20%. Also the whole argument is much more tenuous when applied to ops and moderation staff, rather than &quot;software engineers&quot;. It&#x27;s the loss of ops staff that (to me at least) seems most likely to kill Twitter.
rrwoover 2 years ago
A company like Twitter isn&#x27;t made up of just &quot;software engineers&quot;. Besides writing software, (likely different) people are deploying and running it, testing and integrating it with other systems, monitoring it, securing it.<p>Also, some of the people who have been working at a company for a long time know the systems in detail. They may not be the people who&#x27;d win a popularity contest, but you don&#x27;t want these people to suddenly leave.
gonzo41over 2 years ago
You can&#x27;t grow though, and you&#x27;ll continue to degrade. Your market position will be static. You will get disrupted. Fat staffing at tech companies is about securing the future as much as the present.
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ohCh6zosover 2 years ago
For most of my career I&#x27;ve worked at or consulted with very small companies. I had a bit of a shock taking a short job at a very large company. The sheer number of people who didn&#x27;t seem to do anything was massive.
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chrismcbover 2 years ago
You can probably fire 4&#x2F;5ths of any company and they would survive. But that doesn&#x27;t mean only 20% of the people are working You&#x27;ll lose parts of the businesses. You will fall to grow. Things would take longer to get done. That doesn&#x27;t mean you need all those employees either. But it isn&#x27;t just about survival
crackercrewsover 2 years ago
Seems important that there have been lots of layoffs elsewhere. Some percent of those laid off would take a job at Twitter. This is a big change from the last many years, when SWE hiring was very competitive.<p>New hires won&#x27;t know the internals of Twitter but they can dive in and help. They can also be motivated by equity-heavy comp packages.
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fookerover 2 years ago
I think a lot of people are not considering something important here.<p>What if it actually works out for Twitter?<p>If it does, this will set the baseline for how you can treat software developers.<p>The special treatment (in compensation, flexibility, etc) we seem to enjoy over other white collar professions will be gone.
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taylodlover 2 years ago
Since we&#x27;re talking about Twitter, let me point out the Titanic didn&#x27;t immediately sink when she struck the iceberg. Things can appear fine for some time before they catastrophically fail. Software is no exception.<p>Twitter is no longer positioned to add any new services or abilities. The Twitter we had is the best Twitter will ever be. Maybe that&#x27;s enough. More likely is people have left who are key to maintaining operational excellence. Like the Titanic, their absence may not be noticed for some time.<p>My initial takeaway from this disaster isn&#x27;t you can let 80% of your engineers go and you&#x27;ll be just fine. Though I&#x27;m quite happy for my competitors to draw that conclusion!
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sargstuffover 2 years ago
Ummm.... devil&#x27;s advocate: allowing for just integer value software engineer count, 80% percent of startup with just 1 software engineer leaves 0 software engineers in startup company of 1. Allowing for accountant, still gives an off by 1 error. Including a legal professional &amp; accountant will at least allow for resolution of company issues without rehiring a software engineer.<p>Still think if a company needs to involve software engineer, removal of 80% of software engineer, the total software engineer count less 80% needs to total 1 or more.<p>Hopefully this wasn&#x27;t the bean counter reasoning for minimum employees required for company health plan.
whatever1over 2 years ago
My car also keeps on going when I release the throttle.<p>It also self drives if I let the steering wheel.<p>Until it doesn’t.
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kristopolousover 2 years ago
This is all wrong. You can only build great products with people who have enough wherewithal to exercise their personal agency.<p>When the agency being exercised is departure you get two remainers - the zealots and the hanger-ons.<p>You can try to roll the clock back to a nimble pivot or preserve startup but you&#x27;re looking at wildly different skillsets to make that work and those people have likely just left.<p>It&#x27;s possible to pump out great things with this configuration, but only a fool would sign up for the task. Or maybe a Michael Milken who fancies himself as a Steve Jobs.
jemmywover 2 years ago
That&#x27;s a generalisation and I don&#x27;t think it works. Many companies run a lean engineering team that makes sense for their product. Twitter didn&#x27;t and I really truly don&#x27;t believe they needed as many as they had to work on their product. I know, from talking to someone who left just before the buy out that they just had too many people working on too many things that never even saw the light of day.<p>Hire to work on your core product and for specific purpose. Don&#x27;t let managers hire willy nilly to grow their fiefdom.
hayst4ckover 2 years ago
&gt; On the other hand, Elon Musk (and Twitter) can dangle a big enough carrot to pursue a reasonable number of <i>workaholics</i> to stick around (and +hire some new ones) to move the company forward.<p>I couldn&#x27;t help but read &quot;H1B slaves&quot; in place of workaholics.<p>That might sound mildly hyperbolic, but if you can force someone out of the country, that gives you tyrannical power over them. The power imbalance is so large it must be seen as coercive.<p>I&#x27;d be very interested to see the H1B demographics of post Musk Twitter.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnn.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;11&#x2F;18&#x2F;politics&#x2F;twitter-layoffs-visas-h1b" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnn.com&#x2F;2022&#x2F;11&#x2F;18&#x2F;politics&#x2F;twitter-layoffs-visa...</a><p>&gt; “Firing folks who are on a H-1B in a major economic downturn is not just putting them out of the job, it’s tantamount to ruining their lives,” one former employee told CNN, adding that some people who had accepted Musk’s ultimatum had accepted it “out of self-preservation.”<p>&gt; For that reason, some staff at Twitter who are on H-1B visas are staying on despite wanting to leave the company, a former employee told CNN, adding that they’re “concerned with being forced into a flooded job market where they may be unable to find a job and before being forced out of the country.”
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FrontierPsychover 2 years ago
What that guy says, and most of the posts here say, are not correct, IMO.<p>20% of the customers pay 80% of the revenue.<p>You can&#x27;t just willy-nilly cut <i>any</i> 80%.<p>You have to look at the actual sales per customer and only then cut the 80% that are time wasters.<p>If you have 1000 engineers, you MUST know which <i>specific</i> engineers are the 200 that are delivering 80% of the results.<p>If you have 200 salespeople, you have to know which exact and specific 40 salespeople you keep and the 160 that you fire.<p>.<p>But the problem in many companies that suck, or it was a good company and now it sucks, is that <i>generally</i>, the best employees, the 20%, have the most options. If they get too much problems, those 20% will be the first out the door. So the company starts getting into a death spiral. As more of the top 20% leave, that means the remaining top 20% will have to do the work of the ones that left. And soon they will say no way and they will quit, until all that is left is the 80% that does 20% of the work.<p>I have nothing against the 80&#x2F;20 heuristic, but like most things, you better know exactly what you&#x27;re talking about.<p>Also, in any company, <i>every</i> company, top management should know exactly who the best employees are, and treat them way better than anyone else. You bend over backwards for them. You do not treat all employees equally. It is an utter disaster to lose a golden goose employee, in <i>any</i> capacity, a top 20% receptionist, a top 20% janitor - doesn&#x27;t matter. All top 20%-ers are top 20%-ers. Bend over backwards to keep your top 20% janitor if you have 100 janitors because you have a really really big building, treat the 20% top priority - get the CEO to talk the top 20% janitor if needed. If nothing else, it is good corporate self-discipline. Because the more top 20&#x27;s you have in every area, they all feed off of each other&#x27;s energy.
dehrmannover 2 years ago
I&#x27;m curious to see how this pans out for Twitter. I suspect this is true in theory, but in practice, finding the right 20% is hard, you can&#x27;t do it as bluntly as Musk, and the &quot;extremely hardcore&quot; ultimatum will scare away people in that 20% who will take a few months severance to be done with the drama.
Markoffover 2 years ago
&quot;If the company is left only with 20% of engineers (even the best ones), it will be way deep in survival mode (just barely providing support for an existing product, not building some new exciting things or even improving existing ones).&quot;<p>This is completely ignoring the number of engineers you start with. Let&#x27;s say you have Twitter with 10000 engineers and Twitter with 40000 engineers, in one case I end up with 2000 engineers, in other with 8000 engineers, you are telling me the result will be same?<p>First you need to find out how big overemployment and how productive employees you have to come up with some percentages, some companies are efficient, some companies ar stagnating hardly introducing any new features over years (cough Twitter cough), so clearly there is big overhead of engineers.
layer8over 2 years ago
This has interesting consequences when applied recursively.
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bediger4000over 2 years ago
Shouldn&#x27;t you put a reasonable time limit on &quot;survive&quot;, like oncologists do? A 5 year survival on 20% staff seems unreasonably long, but a couple of weeks is too short for such a verdict.
atishay811over 2 years ago
You can also fire the CXOs and keep promoting from within at 1% the current CXO stock options with a 10 year vesting cliff and the company will survive - may actually do a lot better.
4b11b4over 2 years ago
Everyone is speculating for now. My speculation is they will entirely rewrite the core of the software.
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Gustomaximusover 2 years ago
See Prices Law<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;dariusforoux.com&#x2F;prices-law&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;dariusforoux.com&#x2F;prices-law&#x2F;</a><p>The key question is how to you find &amp; keep the 100 or so key people from a 7,500 company when reducing numbers.
dTalover 2 years ago
In other news, on the same page of HN discussions, Twitter is beginning to fail:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=33692179" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=33692179</a>
egberts1over 2 years ago
Ah, it&#x27;s a good idea to be giving ideas to CEOs and shareholders, oh wait.
physicsguyover 2 years ago
You can probably survive if you fire the <i>right</i> 80%, but if you fire people who are pretty integral to particular services at random, you might not keep the lights on for long enough…
albertopvover 2 years ago
No serious company would survive if so many sw eng left, because also clients&#x2F;customer will leave the moment they know it, fearing loss of functionality, security, support...
jti107over 2 years ago
this guy is completely misapplying the Pareto principle. if you lose the devs that are responsible for 50-80% of the work, your company is crippled.<p>another point is twitter isn’t a pure tech company…it’s an ad business on a tech platform. if all the sales and content people quit or are fired I question the long term (2+ years) survivability especially with 10+ billion in debt and annual 1+ billion loan payments
ruginaover 2 years ago
If the Pareto principle is always true, just keep on firing 80% of the remaining engineers until the company runs without developers.
Havocover 2 years ago
I don’t think the vote 5 people approach would work. Popularity and pleasant to work with does not equal core team. Not even close
dehrmannover 2 years ago
&gt; BTW. Figuring it who is the core team is not that complicated. You just ask everybody to name five people who are doing well and who they want to work with again (in the next company). Then, sort employees by votes, and viola, at the top, you will get your true core team (which may not match perfectly to seniority, number of lines of code written, etc.).<p>This will get you a list of solid team players. It&#x27;s a list of who can keep <i>a</i> company going, but not <i>the</i> company.
thefzover 2 years ago
Programmers are one thing. But what about DevOps, internal infrastructure engineers and general IT, cloud architects... ?
windexover 2 years ago
Stupid broad brush articles and theories like this will screw everyone. The author thinks work is a game show.
PeterStuerover 2 years ago
Since this is about Twitter, let us not pretend all of those fired were software engineers.
vinyl7over 2 years ago
Lots of engineers in this thread think they&#x27;re more important than they really are
LatteLazyover 2 years ago
You can tell this was written by a human. If an Algo wrote it, it would be better.
Onanymousover 2 years ago
And maybe even do better. The trick is to know who exactly to put in those 80%.
Communitivityover 2 years ago
Maybe, but consider this. First, you are unlikely to get a 1:1 overlap between the 20% staff you retain and the most impactful 20%. Next, business is not a sprint, it&#x27;s a marathon relay race - the people you need will depend on the product, development phase, and market changes. Last, there is a difference between survive and thrive. Your business may limp along on life-support until it recovers (in part from re-hiring enough staff), or more likely, dies a slow agonizing death. If you cut 80% of your staff I think the loss of institutional knowledge alone could prevent thriving.<p>These are some of the reports to consider:<p>* Twitter had around 7500 staff when Elon Musk purchased it. Twitter by many accounts now has less than 1000 staff. Some accounts place that number less than 500.<p>* I think the losses aren&#x27;t done. Elon Musk reportedly started reviewing every coder&#x27;s performance, accomplishments over the last six months, and code snippets. He might be going to give the best of them a bonus (inciting jealousy and possible resignations in some of the others). More likely in my opinion, he&#x27;s going to fire more people.<p>* Advertisers are seeming to shun Twitter now. See GroupM&#x27;s labeling of Twitter a &#x27;high risk&#x27; [1]. Hiring, or re-hiring, needed staff will be hard with the volatility perceived and with a lack of money as inducement.<p>I love Twitter, and use it for many things. It&#x27;s too early to say Twitter&#x27;s ultimate fate for certain, but I suspect this Thanksgiving will be Twitter&#x27;s last. Banks could always buy a failing Twitter and bring it back. Who knows?<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;digiday.com&#x2F;marketing&#x2F;never-been-critical-twitters-ad-boycott-is-starting-to-look-like-a-long-goodbye&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;digiday.com&#x2F;marketing&#x2F;never-been-critical-twitters-a...</a>
woodruffwover 2 years ago
&gt; The Pareto principle is “80% of consequences come from 20% of causes”. And as an extension of this, 80% of results are delivered by 20% of engineers.<p>As an extension of this, I propose we remove 4&#x2F;5ths of each airliner. The 20% that remains, so long as we pick the right 20%, will surely fly correctly.<p>Seriously: who writes this dreck? You don&#x27;t have to believe that every single employee at a company is productive or necessary to understand that you can&#x27;t saddle your remaining employees, even <i>if</i> you picked the &quot;right&quot; ones, with the remaining workload.
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oh_my_goodnessover 2 years ago
Yeah, viola. Sure.