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On Trucking

145 pointsby snowypineover 2 years ago

19 comments

i_am_proteusover 2 years ago
Relevant John McPhee article from a couple of decades ago: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.md&#x2F;5GIIg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.md&#x2F;5GIIg</a><p>He rode across the country with an owner operator, and he tells the story.<p>&quot;A true truck has eighteen wheels, or more. From Atlanta and Charlotte to North Powder, Oregon, this was the first time that Ainsworth had so much as tapped his air horn. In three thousand one hundred and ninety miles I rode with him he used it four times. He gave it a light, muted blast to thank a woman in a four-wheeler who helped us make a turn in urban traffic close to our destination, and he used it twice in the Yakima Valley, flirting with a woman who was wearing a bikini. She passed us on I-82, and must have pulled over somewhere, because she passed us again on I-90. She waved both times the horn erupted. She was riding in a convertible and her top was down.&quot;
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dglassover 2 years ago
I work for a startup in the trucking space so it&#x27;s nice to see such an in depth analysis of the industry. I can agree that most of the article is accurate based on what I&#x27;ve seen in my 4 years in the industry. There is so much more innovation going on in the trucking industry that a lot of people don&#x27;t know about.<p>My company, Platform Science, is building a configurable open platform that connects a lot of the different categories mentioned in the article (drivers, carriers, brokers, OEMs, software vendors, etc). If you&#x27;re interested in career opportunities in the trucking industry, we&#x27;re hiring for a number of open positions[1]. Feel free to send me an email (My work email is in my profile) and I can connect you with the right hiring manager.<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.platformscience.com" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.platformscience.com</a><p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.platformscience.com&#x2F;jobs" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.platformscience.com&#x2F;jobs</a>
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mrhektorover 2 years ago
Super interesting analysis of the trucking market.<p>A couple of questions would be:<p>* At what speed is the industry going to embrace self-driving &#x2F; &quot;augmented driving&quot; in trucks? I&#x27;d imagine a driver would still be required at the wheel in case of emergencies for the foreseeable future. What new skills would truckers have to learn?<p>* Given the environmental impact of trucking (self-driving or not), what are some interesting propositions that climate change startups could come up with? Do any players in the value chain even care about climate impact? Clearly, given the cut-throat nature of the business, there would necessarily need to be a revenue impact otherwise no one is going to use the proposition.<p>* I find the insurance part more interesting that the factoring part. Given the generally poor service quality of insurance companies, I&#x27;m wondering if there is a possibility of a &quot;Lemonade&quot; like insurance company in this space? Lemonade started out as a home insurer I believe. What is the killer proposition for an insurance company in this space?<p>Lots more thoughts come to mind. Again, great writeup, thanks!
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abetuskover 2 years ago
Maybe this is a stupid question but is there any value in trying to put solar panels on the roofs of trucks to offset fuel costs?<p>Solar panels are (new) around $0.75 &#x2F; Watt and less than that used. Maybe you could fit 9 or so on the top which, depending on what panels you use, could be about a 1kW or so in sunlight. Maybe it&#x27;s too much of a stretch to ask for a modified engine but heating the driver cabin or even providing some type of heating or cooling to the container might help offset costs.
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ShredKazooover 2 years ago
Has anyone estimated what the impact on the trucking industry would be if the US repealed the Jones Act? Most of America&#x27;s biggest cities are adjacent to ocean or other waterways, and water transport is cheaper than land transport. So it seems fairly plausible to me that the American trucking industry in its current form is basically just a huge source of excess carbon emissions, created as a result of bad regulation.<p>Here is some info on the Jones Act for those who are unfamiliar: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cato.org&#x2F;publications&#x2F;policy-analysis&#x2F;jones-act-burden-america-can-no-longer-bear" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cato.org&#x2F;publications&#x2F;policy-analysis&#x2F;jones-act-...</a>
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coderintheryeover 2 years ago
Awesome write-up.<p>Would be really curious for insight into why truck purchase loans run 8-10% APR with 20% down. If anything, I&#x27;d expect them to be lower risk and easier to re-posses?
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MadScottover 2 years ago
This. Is. Brilliant.<p>Good analysis of the nooks and crannies of potential for trucking. I work in this space and there&#x27;s still a lot to learn here.
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s1monover 2 years ago
I’m surprised with how much care went into breaking down the various pieces of the industry, there was zero mention of the Teamsters Union. Nor is there much mention of any of the human issues which lead to things like most trucking companies failing in the first couple of years.<p>Perhaps looking at trucking from a human centered design perspective would identify problems and needs which are missing from this otherwise deep analysis. What are the pain points of the various types of roles&#x2F;people involved, what makeshift solutions are they currently using, and do they have money to spend on a better solution?
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gnfargblover 2 years ago
The article claims about 3 million truck tractors on US roads, and puts the cost of each driver at about $65k&#x2F;year.<p>Am I correct in naively calculating something like $200B&#x2F;year on the table for full-self-driving truck technology?
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cobertosover 2 years ago
The article mentions that a lot of the trucking spot market takes place on load boards (DAT, Truckstop, etc...)<p>How did the spot market work before the internet&#x2F;the proliferation of technological devices? Where did the &quot;pool&quot; of owner operators hang out before the internet? Or was trucking completely unlike it is today?
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mjevansover 2 years ago
&quot;90% of owner operators fail in their first year - trucking is incredibly cutthroat.&quot;<p>Maybe the disruption this market needs is a set of unions rather than just trucking companies.<p>It would be nice if unions were limited such that... E.G. they could not grow to larger than 15% of the workforce for a sector in any single union. Contracts would need to be approved by... some number, lets say 2&#x2F;3rds of all workers across all unions. With the 15% number that would require at least 5 unions and over 66% of workers to approve of contracts.
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jborichevskiyover 2 years ago
Wonderful writeup. Thanks for sharing!
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tonguetrainerover 2 years ago
Great writeup. I sent this to a friend who has been in the trucking business for decades. There&#x27;s enough meat here that even he will learn something.
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adaml_623over 2 years ago
There are some interesting podcasts about this recorded by the Bloomberg OddLots team. Interviews with the guy who runs <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.freightwaves.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.freightwaves.com&#x2F;</a> and at least one actual trucker. Lots of other podcasts recently about global issues affecting logistics
readthenotes1over 2 years ago
Pet peeve: every time I get on the interstate I think they should have driven 90% of the 18-wheelers on to a train.<p>Or at least have tracking software that fines them heavily for leaving the slow lanem
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yafbumover 2 years ago
Great rundown. &quot;Factoring&quot; sounds a bit like a euphemism for payday loans!
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zabzonkover 2 years ago
according to the grateful dead, there should be no terminating &#x27;g&#x27;
throw0101cover 2 years ago
The <i>Odd Lots</i> podcast recently did two episodes on US trucking that were interesting. The first with an actual trucker, &quot;The Trucking Episode: Why the Industry Is Such a Mess&quot;:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;podcasts.apple.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;podcast&#x2F;the-trucking-episode-why-the-industry-is-such-a-mess&#x2F;id1056200096?i=1000526244956" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;podcasts.apple.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;podcast&#x2F;the-trucking-episode-w...</a><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;omny.fm&#x2F;shows&#x2F;odd-lots&#x2F;the-trucking-episode-why-the-industry-is-such-a-me?in_playlist=odd-lots!podcast" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;omny.fm&#x2F;shows&#x2F;odd-lots&#x2F;the-trucking-episode-why-the-...</a><p>Interesting observations on tracking in that episode:<p>&gt; <i>Gord: (23:44) […] So they regulate the drivers, right? And there&#x27;s going to be another book being published next month by an academic at Cornell named Karen Levy, which is called “Data Driven: Truckers, Technology and the New Workplace Surveillance.” And she has spent 10 years studying like the effects of all of the regulatory imposition on the driver through surveillance technology, driver-facing cameras, ELDs, all of this stuff that&#x27;s meant to regulate us because of the public&#x27;s fear of, you know, drivers driving tired over their hours, all this stuff, which is an effect of the fact that the market&#x27;s been pummeled by deregulation. So there&#x27;s this regulation question, but it&#x27;s not looked at correctly, that they&#x27;ve deregulated the market, but they just moved the regulation from the operations of the companies and the rating and the business side of it, and they&#x27;ve moved all the regulation onto the operations and onto the driver, which is another reason people wash out.</i><p>&gt; <i>Because if you&#x27;re somebody like me who&#x27;s been in the business my entire life, my dad was a trucker, both my uncles were truckers, my grandpa was a trucker. I was helping mechanics fix trucks and driving around when I was a teenager after school. And I&#x27;m one of the sort of last of the big game hunters. I know what I&#x27;m doing. If somebody is a professional and knows what they&#x27;re doing, they don&#x27;t want to be told how to do their job by some human resources harridan, or a health and safety pencil neck person that&#x27;s breathing down their neck. And that&#x27;s a factor.</i><p>&gt; <i>Another thing, and this applies to more than just trucking, is like the psychology of people who work for a living. Most people that work for a living just want to do their jobs and be left alone. And we have this management mentality where like every single thing has to be done exactly as the computer models tell us and as safe as possible. And they&#x27;re trying to impose theory on material reality and it drives the people actually doing the work insane. So, you know, you want to end driver churn and driver retention? One of the factors causing that is that they&#x27;ve overregulated the people doing the work rather than the people in charge of the markets in which the work is being done. Does that make any sense?</i><p>&gt; <i>Joe: (27:20) Yeah, and that&#x27;s an incredible point, and I hadn&#x27;t really thought about this before, this idea that it’s like, okay, the business of trucking, the business of pay, etc., [it’s] increasingly deregulated even as more burden gets shifted to the driver in the truck and the idea of monitoring. And so essentially sort of redistributing the imposition of where the regulation happens. […]</i><p>And just in the last week or so a second episode, &quot;What Truckers Already Know About the Future of Electronic Worker Surveillance&quot;, with a researcher that just published a book on the industry:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;omny.fm&#x2F;shows&#x2F;odd-lots&#x2F;what-truckers-already-know-about-the-future-of-ele?in_playlist=podcast" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;omny.fm&#x2F;shows&#x2F;odd-lots&#x2F;what-truckers-already-know-ab...</a><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;podcasts.apple.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;podcast&#x2F;what-truckers-already-know-about-the-future&#x2F;id1056200096?i=1000593136236" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;podcasts.apple.com&#x2F;us&#x2F;podcast&#x2F;what-truckers-already-...</a><p>&gt; <i>Long-haul truckers are the backbone of the American economy, transporting goods under grueling conditions and immense economic pressure. Truckers have long valued the day-to-day independence of their work, sharing a strong occupational identity rooted in a tradition of autonomy. Yet these workers increasingly find themselves under many watchful eyes. Data Driven examines how digital surveillance is upending life and work on the open road, and raises crucial questions about the role of data collection in broader systems of social control.</i><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;press.princeton.edu&#x2F;books&#x2F;hardcover&#x2F;9780691175300&#x2F;data-driven" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;press.princeton.edu&#x2F;books&#x2F;hardcover&#x2F;9780691175300&#x2F;da...</a><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.karen-levy.net" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.karen-levy.net</a>
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college_physicsover 2 years ago
hmm, I would have expected at least some token references to environmental sustainability &#x2F; impacts, energy risks (and opportunities) etc.
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