I'm asking for what I believe is likely a unique perspective most people have who monitor HN have on general growth trends especially in places like tech.<p>More often these days we're seeing companies like google who are trying to outgrow what made them good in the first place with no clear direction.<p>More and more companies, like amazon, are beginning to feel the weight of bureaucracy and "too much leadership not enough leaders".<p>Is it possible that as a human species we are approaching the point where growth is destructive? If we are to consider this, is there any future in which the humans race does not choke itself with its own overgrowth?
If you're using FAANG businesses as analogs for "humanity" and it's wilful stagnation, I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment. There are great advancements being made in open source, AI and the hardware industry. Science is always discovering new stuff, random people are always making hidden-gem libraries that are ready for you to use.<p>I think most people will be stagnant when the going gets good enough, and things are really good for tech right now. Regulation and higher standards will help balance the equation and encourage more novel innovation.
Are you familiar with the writings of Malthus? Predictions of humanity’s growth-fueled demise are not new.<p>> is there any future in which the humans race does not choke itself with its own overgrowth?<p>There are three primary ideas that give me hope in the future of humanity.<p>The first is space settlement, especially on orbital colonies. The books The High Frontier and Mining the Sky are great introductions to this concept. And after a long “space winter”, it’s gaining steam.<p>The second is the humble concept of recycling. I believe technological progress will allow us to recycle the vast majority of materials that we use to build our civilization. Current directions in this field are enzymatic decomposition and AI-enabled visual separation of matter.<p>Finally, I have hope in the future of humanity based on the fact that those with higher quality of life and education tend to have fewer children.<p>These things together paint a picture of a next century with fewer total humans on earth living with much higher life quality and efficiency, with an expanding frontier of orbital colonies of adventurers. This frontier will in turn become a comfortable civilization that can sustain trillions, before we even discuss the possibility of life outside our solar system.<p>Lofty? Yes. But look at how far we have come and note that indications for high QOL and high tech are accelerating, not slowing down. There will be challenge after challenge, but we will get to a fundamentally brighter future with different problems, make no mistake.<p>That is, we will get there if we have engaged citizens of democracies all over the world who believe in and act on their power. Political will is the bottleneck.
> with no clear direction<p>Keep in mind that some of the most common _types_ of creative minds in tech will always work best without an idea of a clear direction.<p>IMO that's also part of what tech needs in order to be its best--a strong sense of connection with concepts of the unknown. Unknown direction, unknown status even. Definitely unknown solutions to problems that are becoming-known.<p>In such a state, "what direction are we going" isn't necessarily a helpful way of thinking about things. The question usually hints at the asker's way of thinking. Existential? Directional? Open? Focused? Etc.<p>Growth in general is change, and change is stress. Destruction can be a byproduct, but doesn't have to be.<p>I believe we are reaching the point where we integrate that kind of thinking more consciously. The resulting wording includes ideas like "deconstructing" which is a broad hint that new approaches are here.
Related to this is the idea of the tragedy of the commons, which if you consider the utilization of human and natural/capital resources, It almost seems like we are approaching the point at which everything needed for society, basic needs, and health is becoming over-utilized and under-optimized.
Do you see the future as a star trek style utopia or as a star wars style dystopia? Personally I used to see it as one but now as I get older I see it as the other.