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Estimated IQ distribution of children given IQ of parents

43 pointsby nochabout 2 years ago

19 comments

TheCaptain4815about 2 years ago
Very interesting read, didn&#x27;t think the SD would be so high for offspring.<p>I always find it interesting when people attack the genetic aspect of IQ as nonexistent. Given the heritability of almost literally everything else in our body, why is it such a stretch that intelligence, the most complicated of all, is also heridible?<p>If that were the case, I&#x27;d love to know EXACTLY what Bill Gates&#x27;s parents did growing up differently than mine. I read all the time, had a normal childhood, good food available, etc, yet am nowhere near his level of intelligence. Was it the cereal he ate? The weather? The arguments break down immediately when a simple (and proven) solution makes much more sense... it&#x27;s his genes!
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amlutoabout 2 years ago
Oof. This is a toy model, and it has a serious problem with one of its assumptions:<p>&gt; we can calculate that approximately 10,000 alleles control IQ<p>&gt; Assume that the genotypes of parents 1 and 2 are completely independent, and that at each allele, the child has a 50&#x2F;50 chance of inheriting each parent’s copy of that allele.<p>I’m not an expert, but I’m fairly confident that genetics don’t work like that. (IIRC they do in middle school, but they stop almost immediately in college…) Humans (mostly) have 26 pairs of chromosomes, and those chromosomes are full of bases, genes, alleles, etc. And they are not even close to independently inherited: gametes inherit long stretches of consecutive bases <i>from a single parental chromosome</i>. It’s a fascinating process and you can read about it here:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Genetic_recombination" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Genetic_recombination</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Chromosomal_crossover" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Chromosomal_crossover</a><p>This has a large effect on the statistics of what one inherits from whom. I imagine it explains much of why people are likely to retain complex traits from their grandparents than one might expect, especially in cases where one or both parents are first-generation mixes of genetically rather distinct parents.<p>In any event, there are nowhere near 10k SNPs that can be independently inherited from a given pair of parents.<p>I have no particular comment on the overall model or conclusions of the OP, but it should at least acknowledge that its toy model is really quite implausible. (But I will note that my college class on genetics backed up its discussion of intrachromosomal recombination with math that was, if anything, even worse!)
ftxbroabout 2 years ago
Just so you guys know, this take is from my fellow ftxbro Caroline Ellison. This is her old blog. She deleted it, but it was archived. Now it&#x27;s unironically number one on hacker news front page lol.
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kranke155about 2 years ago
I would like to share Nassim Taleb’s beautiful article:<p>“IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle”<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;incerto&#x2F;iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;incerto&#x2F;iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-...</a>
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nmitchkoabout 2 years ago
Interesting that we ignore the physical environment as a contributing factor in IQ, growth, and development. For example:<p>* Iodine supplementation during early life (a few weeks) increases IQ * Organophosphate exposure increases autism (also why people who live near airports have higher incidence of cancer) * Phalates and non-sticks reduce male reproductive organ size * Music lessons in children increases IQ. * L-arginine during childhood increases height and free growth hormone<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;link.springer.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;10.1007&#x2F;s11154-022-09760-7" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;link.springer.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;10.1007&#x2F;s11154-022-09760-7</a> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencedirect.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;abs&#x2F;pii&#x2F;S0160289617300818#bb0465" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencedirect.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;abs&#x2F;pii&#x2F;S01602...</a> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;237236129_The_Plane_Truth_Aviation_and_the_Environment" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;237236129_The_Plane...</a>
kashunstvaabout 2 years ago
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20230511130509&#x2F;https:&#x2F;&#x2F;milkyeggs.com&#x2F;biology&#x2F;estimated-iq-distribution-of-children-given-iq-of-parents&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20230511130509&#x2F;https:&#x2F;&#x2F;milkyeggs...</a>
ftxbroabout 2 years ago
So this article was number one on the hacker news front page and exploding in comments and internet points, but suddenly it vanished from public visibility. I don&#x27;t see it marked as [flagged]. Did the webmasters just get embarrassed of it and manually take it away?<p>EDIT: now it&#x27;s marked as flagged
tauwauwauabout 2 years ago
Seems relevant,<p>Bad Blood: The Story of Eugenics (6 Episodes) <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bbc.co.uk&#x2F;programmes&#x2F;m001fd39&#x2F;episodes&#x2F;player" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bbc.co.uk&#x2F;programmes&#x2F;m001fd39&#x2F;episodes&#x2F;player</a><p>Episode 1: You&#x27;ve Got Good Genes <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bbc.co.uk&#x2F;programmes&#x2F;m001fd36" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bbc.co.uk&#x2F;programmes&#x2F;m001fd36</a>
slibhbabout 2 years ago
The idea that the genetic component of intelligence is &quot;a number of independent, additive alleles&quot; is surprising to me. I would have assumed that genetic intelligence is the result of many alleles interacting in complex ways (i.e. nonlinear).
yaloginabout 2 years ago
If the IQ of the children is similar to the parents, how are people with high IQ born? Are they abnormalities? Also from what I gather on the whole the average IQ of the world is increasing, how is that explained?
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soVeryTiredabout 2 years ago
The model is mildly interesting but surely there’s actual data available out there that shows the variability?
ftxbroabout 2 years ago
I remember reading this in Stephen Pinker&#x27;s book when I was fourteen and this was deep.
zorenabout 2 years ago
Amazing how intelligent people think intelligence can be quantified in a single number.
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mustafa_pasiabout 2 years ago
So basically, if you are a career power couple and decide to only have one kid ...
foogaziabout 2 years ago
Great, we all have our mom and her sperm donor to blame
dp-hackernewsabout 2 years ago
Jordan Peterson - Controversial Facts about IQ<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=jSo5v5t4OQM">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=jSo5v5t4OQM</a>
byyyyabout 2 years ago
I recall reading an article about two high IQ and talented parents... both professors in very hard academic fields talking about their child and how they were trying to push their child into roles with high IQ.<p>The parents were from China too so you can imagine the intensity of this of this pressure.<p>Then one day the father realized that his child did not inherit the high IQ of both him and his wife. It wasn&#x27;t a matter of not working hard or being lazy.<p>He realized the error of his ways... that the intense pressure he put on his daughter was wrong.<p>I can&#x27;t seem to find that article anymore. But being Asian myself it really got me thinking and curious whether their are other parents out their who experienced something similar and what&#x27;s it like for the parent or the child?<p>Like how does Micheal Jordan react to the fact that his son will never have the abilities he had no matter how much his son tries or how much pressure he puts on him?
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ftxbroabout 2 years ago
oh no is this a 4chan raid
whitemaryabout 2 years ago
The better predictor would be the parents&#x27; wealth.
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