I'm building a tool that predicts the value of a tax strategy, the 83(b) election, and am trying to understand the return distribution for vc-backed startups at various stages so I can ballpark how valuation evolves the 5 years following when someone joins.<p>Assuming Gaussian price movement (for Brownian motion) is probably very wrong unless the startup is late stage.<p>Some research from Angellist suggests power law distribution but does not include failed startups, only those with positive returns.<p>YC companies seem like a biased but good proxy for what I want but I'm not seeing any consolidated analysis of survival and exit.<p>I'm looking for high quality analysis, not random blog posts about how 90% of startups fail without attribution.