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Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

2 pointsby tedsandersalmost 2 years ago

1 comment

jacknobodyalmost 2 years ago
The history of the world contains few examples of correct guesses about what developments are likely in science by such-and-such a date. On the other hand, there are so many wrong guesses that the correct guesses are effectively drowned out.<p>It&#x27;s almost as though there were a butterfly effect going... the world is so rich in new things to discover, and there are so many eager researchers, that a tiny idea could take fire at any moment and completely change the direction of science. It&#x27;s not just &quot;possible&quot;, it&#x27;s inevitable.