I am in Russia currently.
Not Russian but I speak fluent Russian and have acquaintances in affected territories.<p>Update: 19:28 Moscow time.<p>- Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news.<p>- Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace.<p>- Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them.
Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov.<p>- Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them.<p>- I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well.<p>- Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages.<p>- For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)
New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Rostov, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way":<p>"<i>The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters did their work. Then, artillery.<p>The orders were coming from the Head of General Staff to destroy PMC Wagner. After a meeting with the Minister of Defence Shoygu where they made this decision - to destroy the rebellious units, who are ready to defend the motherland, but not their asses.<p>As of now, we’ve crossed the state borders in all areas. Border guards came towards us and hugged our fighters.<p>Now, we’re entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defence, in fact, the conscripts who were thrown to block our path, moved away.<p>We do not fight with children. We do not kill children. Shoygu is killing children by throwing untrained soldiers, conscripts included, into the war.<p>He set up 18-year-old lads against us. They’re like children and grandchildren to us. Therefore, these lads will live and return to their mothers.<p>We only fight with professionals. But if someone stands in our path, we will destroy EVERYTHING in our way.<p>We lend a hand to anyone. No need to spit in this hand. We are moving forward, going to the end.<p>Regarding claims regarding the arrest: this brotherhood, this justice, this honour, this conscience is what we have. But when you make these claims, you haven’t got these feelings. These feelings are destroyed. Thus, you cannot understand anything but betrayal.</i>"<p>Audio: <a href="https://t.co/eVLNEA708y" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://t.co/eVLNEA708y</a><p><a href="https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128</a>
Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?).<p>The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr.<p>For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way too much.
There has been a lot of talk, but no concrete actions yet. No marches anywhere, no clashes between regular armed forces and the PMC, nothing.<p>Some armored vehicles were put on the streets of Moscow and Rostov (which is located near the border with Ukraine), but that's about it.<p><a href="https://t.me/svtvnews/31224" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://t.me/svtvnews/31224</a> <a href="https://t.me/svtvnews/31232" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://t.me/svtvnews/31232</a>
Just posting a few of my favorite accounts for following updates on the Russia Ukraine war:<p><a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki</a><p><a href="https://twitter.com/wartranslated" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/wartranslated</a><p><a href="https://twitter.com/Tendar" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/Tendar</a><p><a href="https://twitter.com/Twiter__Trends" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/Twiter__Trends</a>
"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation.<p>Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians.<p>You would hear the radio broadcast of these ** now.<p>The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath"<p><a href="https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696</a>
Prigozhin, audio statement at 00:31 BST, stating that Gerasimov "gave an order for planes to bomb moving Wagner columns". It is unclear if these columns exist in reality:<p>"<i>Just now, the Head of General staff gave the order to raise planes and open fire at columns moving through civilian cars, through trucks. He doesn’t care whom to kill. They’ve been killing own civilians for 1,5 years now instead of fighting with the enemy.<p>I want to say thank you to the pilots who, as it just became known, refused to obey criminal orders.</i>"<p>Audio: <a href="https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw</a><p><a href="https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658</a>
Wagner PMC has responded to the pleas of RU generals for them to not to listen to Prigozhin:<p>> <i>Все генералы, которые с трясущимися руками обращаются к музыкантам с призывами остановиться уже фактически подписали себе приговор. Трибунал обязательно будет. Суровикин еще ответит за сдачу Херсона.</i><p>> (Google Translate) <i>All the generals who, with trembling hands, appeal to the musicians to stop, have actually signed their own sentence. There will be a tribunal. Surovikin will still answer for the surrender of Kherson.</i><p><a href="https://t.me/apwagner/9116" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://t.me/apwagner/9116</a>
A senior American intelligence official tells me for both Ukraine and U.S. intelligence, it’s a “<i>watch and see if they destroy themselves sort of situation.</i>” They said it was going to be a long night of watching how this develops. Said Wagner is preparing* to mobilize—it’s believed they want to head towards Moscow. Edited original tweet for better context.<p><a href="https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353</a>
«We're on our way to Moscow, and anyone who entered our centres will answer for it» - Prigozhin<p><a href="https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672358497067970561" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723584970679705...</a>
Prigozhin announced they have crossed the border and are entering Rostov<p><a href="https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692</a><p>Also: <a href="https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425</a><p>Also: <a href="https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3805" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3805</a>
> <i>оявилась информация, что несколько частей, в том числе 45 бригада, отказались выйти из казарм против Вагнера. Кстати, в ВДВ всегда симпатизировали Пригожину, - ВЧК-ОГПУ</i><p>> <i>information appeared that several units, including the 45th brigade, refused to leave the barracks against Wagner. By the way, in the Airborne Forces they always sympathized with Prigozhin, - VChK-OGPU</i><p><a href="https://twitter.com/protest_da/status/1672369669850669064" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/protest_da/status/1672369669850669064</a>
Prigozhin, via AP Wagner channel, calls for Rosgvardia to join him, or "things will go badly":<p>"<i>The most promising politician appeals to the National Guard (Rosgvardia) with an offer that is better not refused. Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of Justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice.</i>"<p><a href="https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470</a>
Something is definitely happening, there's lot's of videos of military vehicles on the streets of multiple russian cities and the main tv channel just announced some kind of an emergency broadcast.
The Wagner attempted coup (marching on the Russian MoD) is real, but it won't result in serious regime change, only a weakening of Russian position in Ukraine.<p>Prigozhin admits the reasons for invading Ukraine were bullshit from Russia: <a href="https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984</a><p>Sad to see how many people supported an invasion and slaughter of so many people because of what the Russian state says about things like NATO. Hope this is a wake up call.<p>If you want to follow the unfolding events, Crowdstrike founder, <a href="https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch</a> is a qualified and educated source (predicted invasion 3 months before)
My guess: its a tactic designed to embolden the enemy and keep them committed to a failing strategy.<p>Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounded killbox. Saw how that turned out.<p>I'd bet its the same deal with the current offensive, which has been similarly ruinous for Ukraine.
So far there are no confirmations (videos or photos) of Prigozhin's previous statements that Wagner mercenaries have allegedly entered Rostov-on-Don. Local media don't confirm that.<p><a href="https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672394495424356352" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723944954243563...</a>
not familiar enough to verify this but i guess Wagner is taking the Southern Military District right now?<p><a href="https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=FuXL1J9ks_1pjy_TJso6qQ&s=19" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=...</a>
Doesn't read like a good source. Citing the loose cannon does not make a civil war.<p>But yea, Prigozhin has been hinting that he considers civil war an option when he commented on the retreat from Bakhmut: “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”[0]<p>From my armchair, it doesn't look like a bunch of mercenaries could meaningfully operate within Russia. They'd need decisive support from branches of the regular army. So the question is whether he has alliances. As long as they haven't revealed themselves, this will stay cold. Or Prigozhin will die real quick.<p>[0] <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-suc...</a>
In times like this Fark[1] is a great resources for tracking all the latest happenings<p>[1] <a href="https://www.fark.com/comments/12902150" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.fark.com/comments/12902150</a>
Nobody announces a coup in advance.<p>What's going on?<p>On theory is that if he's arrested and tried in Russia he's mostly ineligible for war crime trial in the future.
FSB has been mobilized in Moscow and security plan "Fortress" has been enacted to safeguard govt buildings in Moscow.<p>I am getting popcorn.
Actually, could be very well planned and well timed move by the CIA:<p>Russian army is tied at the front, can’t leave it to protect the government.<p>Wagners are very angry at RU MoD and above for all the betrayals and missteps (art. ammo supply, surrenders, etc.)<p>RU public is tired of the war and disappointed in Putin (but can’t voice that because of laws that say you will go to jail for just showing UA flag).
Zerohedge, which is basically just a Russian propaganda source, is saying that the Wagner chief is already attempting to walk back his comments. Which kind of makes sense, as a moderately sized PMC has approximately zero chance against the might of a nation. So I'm not really sure that anything is gonna happen here. Hope I'm wrong, though.
What kind of reaction people expect from this hackernews post?<p>Anything that goes against the dogma will get shut down?<p>What's the veracity of this article to begin with?<p>In the age of digital transformation, what are the chances we are reading fake news from the Ukrainian front?<p>They attack each other? well, if they killed some russians and stole their missiles, it's easy to create confusion on the adversary camp, capture a general, train a model and spread fake news with deep fakes etc etc<p>Until we get a proper source, we can only speculate<p>Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth?