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Elo for VC – Founder's Choice

111 pointsby satukealmost 2 years ago

6 comments

thesausagekingalmost 2 years ago
I don't think the fund level ratings matter anymore. a16z has more than 300 partners managing $35B across separate funds in tech, bio, crypto, cultural leadership, and other areas. The partner(s) you work with matter more than the shingle outside the office.
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bravuraalmost 2 years ago
Aside: I have an optimization algorithm and I&#x27;m curious if ELO ranking (or TrueSkill) would be a decent approximate solution.<p>I have a sparse matrix of probabilities that I want to turn into a DAG. If x[m,n] = pr it means that m is a descendent (direct or transitively) of n with probability pr. I want to construct a DAG over these edges.<p>Most importantly, I want a solution that maintains the DAG property, i.e. no cycles. Given that constraint, I want to maximize the total probability of edges kept in the DAG combined with the (1 - probability) edges removed from the graph.<p>Any suggestions on how to implement this optimization algorithm?<p>Perhaps I could use an ELO or TrueSkill ranking as an approximation. The difficulty is sampling matches, but perhaps it makes sense to sample non-zero edges randomly, uniformly. So nodes with high in-degree or high out-degree are selected more frequently, since they are more likely to impose constraints on the graph. The probability of winning is determined by the edge probability.<p>This doesn&#x27;t guarantee a DAG but would be a great initialization point. Anyway, I&#x27;m curious about alternate ideas or refinements to the above.
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gnicholasalmost 2 years ago
In case anyone else is fuzzy on the precise meaning of &quot;Elo&quot;: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Elo_rating_system" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Elo_rating_system</a>
jacquesmalmost 2 years ago
Personal vote for Hoxton. Nice people and very knowledgeable, and ethical too. Note that many (top) EU VCs aren&#x27;t in this dataset.<p>This is probably due to &#x27;We only include firms where we received 100 or more comparisons to other firms.&#x27;, which in Europe, where the VC landscape is - fortunately - much more fragmented isn&#x27;t going to happen all that often except for seed funds.<p>Also, it might be worth it to add PE parties as well because that&#x27;s one track where founders may well end up and those interactions do not always go smoothly.
kriroalmost 2 years ago
Nice. I think a (main) location field would be valuable, probably city+country. I&#x27;d like to quickly find EU based VCs for example.
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noxvillezaalmost 2 years ago
Interested in some parts of the methodology (if perhaps someone knows or the creators spot this thread):<p>* The pairwise comparison: does it freeze updates and calculate all shifts at the same time? For example if you had A &gt; B &gt; C do you calculate the impact of {A&gt;B, A&gt;C, B&gt;C}, sum these impacts together (grouped by the VC), and then apply them? Or do you do it iteratively: if a firm had {A}, then {A&gt;B}, then {A&gt;B&gt;C} do you add 0 then 1 then 2 comparisons as you get new data?<p>* How do you handle the fact that respondents to the survey are over a large time-frame, so some VCs might get better or worse over that time frame? Is there some Elo-decay applied?
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