Twenty months is about the historical average:<p>* <a href="https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/how-long-do-bear-markets-last/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/05/how-long-do-bear-ma...</a><p>* <a href="https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/investing-in-a-bear-market/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/07/investing-in-a-bear...</a><p>If you have a long-term goal (e.g., retirement) then generally you shouldn't bother worry gyrations too much:<p>* <a href="https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...</a><p>Simply put away a little every month in an automated fashion and things will generally be okay:<p>* <a href="https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/</a>
Anecdotally, I've never seen so many folks laid off on LinkedIn since I've been on the platform. Some are going on 3+ months. Recruiter spam is at all time lows. Are these companies getting by with less?
<a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/pub/content/dam/mscampaign/wealth-management/wmir-assets/gic-weekly.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.morganstanley.com/pub/content/dam/mscampaign/wea...</a><p>Struggling to copy / paste from my phone but the GIC is always worth a read<p>“The GIC remains convicted that a rapid and strong rebound is unlikely…”
Close to 60% of the market gain this year is the Big Tech 7 (this kind of top-heavy weighting tends to foreshadow bad economic events). The yield curve is still inverted at historic levels. There is something fundamentally very wrong in the US and global economy and it may not have manifested fully yet but it will. We're bullish for now but for how long.
The 401k flow into institutional investors did not disappear. No new sink for the money appeared.<p>Limited supply of shares and financial products to buy and near infinite, constantly replenishing, demand for putting the money somewhere. Until the pensions get emptied (not happening for the next few decades) the trend can only be up.<p>Money need to go somewhere.<p>And yes, this means that it is nearly totally decoupled from "fundamentals". Same as with real estate and housing.<p>Unless we actively force this money into the economy and wreck pensions, university endowments and charities funds, there is no way out anytime soon. The Boomers need their money somewhere.<p>And yes. This is why productivity is down, every company has massive war chest and noone invest in fundamentals. The rise of the MBA is due to Boomers 401k, not to something fundamentally useful there.
this is how it works:<p>whales with huge amounts to invest simply collude to buy everything in size. they add, add, add, add to their positions.<p>This draws in everyone else. index funds automatically, and hedge funds that need to "outperform" the indexes.<p>Then the whales sell.<p>On the average they make money with this methodology.