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Cargo Cult Science (1974) [pdf]

230 pointsby ed_westinalmost 2 years ago

21 comments

throw18376almost 2 years ago
I have heard that some anthropologists now have a more complicated view of the cargo cults. They argue that, even if there was some notion of making cargo appear, their main purpose was more political and social. It was an opportunity for the locals to move around in organized groups, even march around doing military drills, without causing the colonial leadership to panic and retaliate. It would bind people together socially and get them used to coordinating under a leader, whose legitimacy would be enhanced.<p>Sometimes people now claim that &quot;cargo cult science&quot; is not really a good analogy and should be abandoned.<p>However, I think this newer understanding of cargo cults may actually make it an even better analogy.<p>Even if a line of scientific ideas is mostly fake and its research practices can&#x27;t possibly lead to truth, participating in this ritual of fake research, giving talks about it, and other science-shaped activities, still does bind the participants together. It lends prestige to the leaders of the field. It gives everyone a way to coordinate politically around securing funding and legitimacy from higher powers for their fake research area. And we&#x27;ve seen you really can keep a field going this way for a very long time even if the planes never land.
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lpolovetsalmost 2 years ago
I love this speech every time that I read it. There are a ton of examples of cargo cult thinking in the startup ecosystem. I wrote a post about this a few years back: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.codingvc.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;startup-cargo-cults-what-they-are-and-how-to-avoid-them" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.codingvc.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;startup-cargo-cults-what-they-are...</a><p>A few examples that come to mind:<p>* because lots of famous VCs made contrarian bets, new VCs try to be contrarian (even when a consensus point of view is clearly correct).<p>* almost every startup I know is looking for 10x engineers, even though most startups don&#x27;t need 10x engineers. We&#x27;ve just all been conditioned to believe that 10x engineers are required to build a great company.<p>* generalizing the 10x example, young startups copy the traits of FAANG companies or famously successful startups, even if those traits are harmful for early stage companies.<p>Feynman: &quot;The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.&quot;<p>Also, here&#x27;s a text version of the OP that&#x27;s easier to read on mobile: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;calteches.library.caltech.edu&#x2F;51&#x2F;2&#x2F;CargoCult.htm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;calteches.library.caltech.edu&#x2F;51&#x2F;2&#x2F;CargoCult.htm</a>
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NoZebra120vClipalmost 2 years ago
James Knochel, 6&#x2F;18&#x2F;2022:<p>&quot;20th Century psychiatrists wrote manuals and procedures for the diagnosis of ‘mental disorders’. They order lab tests and undertake careful study of their patients’ symptoms, and they diagnose the conditions listed in their manuals. They seek regulatory approval of prescriptions to treat the diagnoses. They stopped doing psycho-surgery by mid-century, but still electrocute their patients’ brains when they think the patient will benefit.<p>They have their own special hospitals, where troubled patients are sent to be stabilized on palliative prescription drugs. The psych wards have little areas for staff to sit in. The staff wear scrubs and badges, keep medical records, and some prescribe prescriptions—[s]he’s the doctor—and they wait for their patients to get better.<p>They’re doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looks in the other medical specialties. But it doesn’t work. No patient recovers as a result of the allopathic drugs provided. Some patients get better anyways—perhaps because they’re fed, perhaps because they’re kept sober—compounding the profession’s confusion.&quot;<p>It&#x27;s true. People get better in psychiatric incarceration, because there is a predictable, regular daily schedule. There are meals on schedule. There are groups and stuff. You see the same people all the time. You&#x27;re off TV and you&#x27;re off the computer, so you need to face reality. You&#x27;re relieved of burdens such as bill paying, cooking, cleaning, and running your household. You might color by the numbers or work a puzzle, but you&#x27;ve got reality, and it&#x27;s stripped down and reduced to its essential components. You tend to get better and saner in this environment, if that&#x27;s your baseline and that&#x27;s where you tend to go. If your baseline is insanity, then all this regularity may not help.
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fshalmost 2 years ago
My current favorite cargo cult is the quantum computing scene. No practical quantum computer exists, and nobody has a realistic concept for building one. Yet, there are dozens of startups and research groups developing quantum algorithms, quantum cloud computing solutions, etc. They seem to believe that blindly copying what silicon valley did must surely lead to success. What they are missing (or are refusing to accept) is that silicon valley was only successful because they had useful computers <i>from the very beginning</i>. In Germany, the cargo cult was even enshrined in the names of two research clusters (&quot;Munich Quantum Valley&quot; and &quot;Quantum Valley Lower Saxony&quot;).
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rossdavidhalmost 2 years ago
One point rarely mentioned in regards to Cargo Cultism, is that the fundamental error of the cargo cultists wasn&#x27;t that they didn&#x27;t understand what made the planes land. The fundamental error was that they kept doing it, even though it wasn&#x27;t working. We don&#x27;t know how a lot of our most effective pharmaceuticals work, but we at least know to stop using them if (in a rigorous test) they don&#x27;t work (although people with $$ in their eyes sometimes try to get us to do it anyway).<p>Now, the magnitude of the error would depend on how long the cargo cultists kept doing this, even though the planes didn&#x27;t return, and I have never heard how long that was. If they tried this for a month or two, it&#x27;s not that bad an error, really; it was worth a try, based on what they knew. If they did this for decades, that would be a serious error.
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sturzaalmost 2 years ago
&gt; It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly. It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty—a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid—not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked—to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.<p>Feels appropriate to the current LK99 discussions
henrydarkalmost 2 years ago
I hope this isn&#x27;t received too badly on HN, but Feynman was way too smug sometimes. This speech is essentially a philosophy of science piece, at the intellectual stage of at least one hundred years prior, and probably more like three hundred.<p>It&#x27;s too bad that he so diminished philosophy of science, and at the same time put so much undeveloped thought and prose into it.
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nntwozzalmost 2 years ago
In the South Seas there is a Cargo Cult of people. During the war they saw airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now. So they&#x27;ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his head like headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas—he&#x27;s the controller—and they wait for the airplanes to land. They&#x27;re doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the way it looked before. But it doesn&#x27;t work. No airplanes land. So I call these things Cargo Cult Science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they&#x27;re missing something essential, because the planes don&#x27;t land.
hellothere1337almost 2 years ago
Cargo culting is one of those mental models that appears everywhere once you learn about it. Similar to kayfabe in wrestling and politics. 99.9% of humanity basically is winging it daily (by copying the shallowest parts of whatever philosophy&#x2F;ideology they espouse) pretending they know everything while the 0.01% is honest with themselves and thus are free to question and doubt their own ideas in order to improve them. This 0.1% is mostly invisible despite pushing humanity forward
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obscurettealmost 2 years ago
Probably even more relevant in HN – <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stevemcconnell.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;cargo-cult-software-engineering&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stevemcconnell.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;cargo-cult-software-engi...</a>
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bschnealmost 2 years ago
I read this extension of the concept a while back that dives a bit more into what&#x27;s actually missing in the &quot;cargo cult&quot; approach, and how to transition to actual productivity — <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;metarationality.com&#x2F;upgrade-your-cargo-cult#upgrading" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;metarationality.com&#x2F;upgrade-your-cargo-cult#upgradin...</a>
sfpotteralmost 2 years ago
People on HN <i>love</i> this article. I think it&#x27;s because people on HN have a self-flattering view of themselves and their intelligence. The irony is that HN is itself a cargo cult.
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swayvilalmost 2 years ago
Isn&#x27;t &quot;cargo-cult-science&quot; simply &quot;engineering&quot;?<p>You use the models handed down by the researchers because they work. They help you make machines and navigate reality and such. There&#x27;s nothing shameful in that. You don&#x27;t have the time for research. Time is money after all.<p>You are not a scientist. You are not interested in Truth. You just want to get from A to B.
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lloekialmost 2 years ago
I was looking for any kind of recording of Feynman&#x27;s address, all I could find is a third party narrated version, which probably lacks Feynman&#x27;s unique delivery:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=yvfAtIJbatg">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=yvfAtIJbatg</a>
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js2almost 2 years ago
HTML version which I find easier to read:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;calteches.library.caltech.edu&#x2F;51&#x2F;2&#x2F;CargoCult.htm" rel="nofollow noreferrer">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;calteches.library.caltech.edu&#x2F;51&#x2F;2&#x2F;CargoCult.htm</a>
nextmovealmost 2 years ago
Agreed with everything Feynman wrote. Monkey see, monkey do.<p>Even if someone questions what everyone else believes is true because &quot;scientists said it&quot;, they will only be downvoted and censored.
gaddersalmost 2 years ago
I saw some archive footage of him speaking recently and I loved that he kept his blue collar (to my British ears) Brooklyn accent.
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trinsic2almost 2 years ago
&gt; In the past, I’ve been effusive of my praise of CNET, a news outlet that (along with Wired) pioneered digital journalism,<p>I&#x27;m sorry, I can&#x27;t take anyone that thinks CNET and Wired is a bastion of digital journalism seriously.<p>It&#x27;s well known that these sites focus on 80% profit and 20% Journalism. It&#x27;s been that way from the beginning.
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bonoboTPalmost 2 years ago
I&#x27;m only really familiar with machine learning and computer vision papers and many of the mentioned aspects, especially Mr. Young&#x27;s rat running experiments have their analogs here.<p>There is a ton of accumulated &quot;dark knowledge&quot; locked up in research groups, all the tricks (like putting the rat corridor on sand, in that example) but they are not really publishable. To publish, you need a clear <i>story</i>, literally that&#x27;s the word we use when drafting papers. What&#x27;s your story? A bunch of boring tricks rarely make a good story. And when people do publish such things, they have to also insert some other conceptual &quot;novelty&quot; contribution (typically a non intuitive tweak of the model architecture) to the paper that makes a +0.5% improvement on some benchmark, just to be able to talk about the real practical but ugly things that really make the whole thing work.<p>Not to mention the replications that Feynman mentions, ie that before you test your tweaked new model, you have to also perform the baseline yourself, you can&#x27;t just take it as given in another person&#x27;s paper. This is rarely done in ML, and not just for resource scarcity reasons. Another reason is that it&#x27;s damn hard. ML systems are very very complex and essentially impossible to exactly reproduce from a paper description. It would even be hard for the same team to do it, if we deleted their codebase and checkpoints and asked them to redo it.<p>&quot;But open source!&quot; you say. Sure, except that large systems often evolve and the released code is often a refactored version of a haphazard ducktaped spaghetti monster codebase that was actually used, where they manually edited code files between runs, or hard-coded things, discovered some Bug midway and fixed it and compensated for it best they could etc.<p>These projects must be done in a few months so youre ready before the next conference cycle happens where someone does something related and now you need to rework your story and contribution claim, or at least you now also have to compare and compete with them.<p>But let&#x27;s say you took your time and now redid the experiment of the other prior work, but it doesn&#x27;t agree with your numbers totally. You can email them or open a github issue. They answer perhaps in a week, and say they don&#x27;t know exactly the reason, or that it was a different code version they actually used but they can&#x27;t release that one as it&#x27;s not approved by corporate (from real experience). Of course with your questions you are also terrifying them and your queries may feel to them like threats of pending potential reputation destruction. So they will be very defensive, which will make you suspicious. But they are just some other grad student like you and probably didn&#x27;t mean any ill.<p>I&#x27;ve seen a PhD student on Twitter asking what he should do after discovering an anomaly in an Arxiv paper before the camera ready deadline (the finalized version of an article). Should he publicly &quot;out&quot; them if they fail to incorporate his findings. Of course it is absurd and the camera ready deadline cannot introduce significant new contributions or new discoveries, as that would require new peer review. But he was convinced that he&#x27;s a noble defender of scientific integrity while doing this. I&#x27;m just mentioning this because some junior people may read these Feynman pieces and think they should go on a crusade based on often quite scarce information.<p>But again, think of the sheer volume of works coming out every week. It&#x27;s unmanageable. If you stopped to interact with every single prior work of your comparison table in such detail you&#x27;d take years to write one paper. A PhD student usually has to publish 3 top papers in about 4 years or so. And some will definitely get rejected. The reality is that high-end labs have become paper factories. They have a process, just like pop songs are formulaic. They get a smart person as an intern for example and pump out a paper in 5 months. Exactly how much of this &quot;you are the easiest person to fool&quot; deep self-reflection fits into such a thing?<p>And yet.<p>And yet the cumulative effect is undeniable progress. The thousands of low quality papers are simply ignored. They contribute to someone getting their PhD, and that&#x27;s their true function. But then there is a small set of works that really are excellent. It&#x27;s just that the publicly available papertrail in the literature isn&#x27;t really necessarily what has driven it. The papers are more like a shadow projection of the real world work behind the scenes, filtered to please novelty-hungry impatient reviewers and paper-count-rewarding committees. But of course the sheer hardware growth is a big part of the overall success, but the hardware design was informed by the research, and without the model improvements, you couldn&#x27;t just hardware-scale the state of the art of 1995 to modern computes and expect strong results.<p>So for sure the spirit that Feynman espouses here still lives on, but it&#x27;s alive despite all the incentives, and most of what appears as academic science is not really about contributing some truly usable and convincing knowledge, but a demonstration of the job skills of people towards various personal evaluations, like granting a degree, hiring or promotion.<p>Most people who start with this starry eyed idealism quickly get it stamped out by the system. The important thing is to yield a productive synthesis instead of a resignatory pessimism. Do your best given the circumstances, but also read the room and don&#x27;t run with your head into the wall.<p>The fabulous thing is though, that things adapt. The less these hurried processes live up to the ideal, the more the reputation of the label &quot;science&quot; gets eroded. Many people already react with an eye roll when they hear what &quot;experts&quot; and &quot;The Science&quot; have to say. The trust is finite and can run out.<p>A few major discoveries in physics and medicine led to a giant reserve of public trust over the last century, but it isn&#x27;t infinite. Immediately after the moon landing, in the space age, science and scifi captivated the minds of everyone and that was probably the peak of it, including figures like Sagan (or indeed Feynman). Then computing brought a new wave of tech but it, and even AI is less of a natural science, and many popular claims turn out to be overblown.<p>---<p>Anyway, we have no idea what exactly made the 100 years between, say, 1870 and 1970 so scientifically productive. Because that&#x27;s the period that lends the weight to the label &quot;science&quot; in the public and hence for politicians. It certainly wasn&#x27;t the current academic system of journals and conferences and 8-page papers and rushed peer review, h-indexes and byzantine grant application forms.<p>And whenever something has prestige, people flock to it and want to also bask in it. And it gets inevitably diluted. But the prestige will move on and there will be some other thing next. Something we will call something else than &quot;science&quot;.
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uwagaralmost 2 years ago
it could be the tribals were critiquing how american military conducts itself in tropical lands.
fnord77almost 2 years ago
crypto seems like a massive cargo cult
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