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Solar cycle is more powerful and surprising than predicted

57 pointsby ed_westinalmost 2 years ago

8 comments

jronalmost 2 years ago
Scott McIntosh predicted it: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;2006.15263" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;abs&#x2F;2006.15263</a><p>&quot;Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25PP, sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e., similar to that of SC24. Indeed, as can be seen in Fig. 4b, if our prediction for the 2020 terminator time is correct, such a low value would be a severe outlier with respect to the observed behavior of previous sunspot cycles. Such a low value could only be reconciled with the previously observed sunspot cycles if the next terminator event is delayed by more than two years from our predicted value, which would extend the present low activity levels to an extraordinary length. We note also that the relationship developed herein would have correctly predicted the low amplitude of SC24 (from a terminators separation of 12.825 years) following the 2011 terminator—three years after the 2006 NOAA&#x2F;NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel delivered their consensus prediction (Pesnell, 2008). Finally, the arrival of the SC24 terminator will permit higher fidelity on the forecast presented.&quot;
ericbarrettalmost 2 years ago
We know so little about the Sun’s weather. Take the Maunder Minimum, a period spanning at least three solar cycles where there were three orders of magnitude fewer sunspots observed[0]. Imagine the effect if the standard cycle we knew <i>increased</i> by as much...!<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Maunder_Minimum" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Maunder_Minimum</a>
gumbyalmost 2 years ago
Even though I&quot;m working on the climate, I&#x27;m still quite worried about a Carrington event making it all <i>de facto</i> irrelevant. The way modern society works, a single such event would likely kill the majority of the world&#x27;s population.
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1970-01-01almost 2 years ago
Correlation was recently discovered between solar cycles and earthquakes. Volcanism correlates to earthquakes, but I don&#x27;t believe it goes in both directions. Ergo, the solar cycles should not affect global warming. But that&#x27;s not what we are now observing. Very interesting news.
0xTJalmost 2 years ago
&quot;is more [...] surprising than predicted&quot;<p>What would it mean for it to be less surprising than predicted?
brentstevenson1almost 2 years ago
Fascinating solar cycle revelations! The Sun&#x27;s heightened activity defies predictions, reminding us of the universe&#x27;s enduring mysteries. Science at its finest
nyteskyalmost 2 years ago
Solar cycle is to hotter sun like climate change is to global warming. Not a perfect analogy, but helps with the gist.
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fguerrazalmost 2 years ago
I can&#x27;t wait for Quanta Magazine&#x27;s interpretation of this... Surely we&#x27;re all doomed, right?