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Cardwell's Law: no society, on its own, will create new technology for long

2 pointsby skmurphyalmost 2 years ago

1 comment

skmurphyalmost 2 years ago
Builds on Joel Mokyr&#x27;s 1993 &quot;Creative Forces&quot; essay <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;reason.com&#x2F;1993&#x2F;05&#x2F;01&#x2F;creative-forces&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;reason.com&#x2F;1993&#x2F;05&#x2F;01&#x2F;creative-forces&#x2F;</a> which makes three key points:<p>1. &quot;The engine of economic growth is, was, and will always be technological creativity. Of course, other things are necessary for an economy to grow–capital accumulation, skills, motivation, well-functioning markets, and so on. But all other factors tend to have short-lived effects. They can increase income, but they tend to burn out after a while. Technology is the only thing that does not run into diminishing returns. There are no known limits to the human ability to control and manipulate the forces of nature.&quot;<p>2. &quot;Technological progress, even in civilian technology, is often made in tooth and claw. Without the pressure of competing neighboring states, societies may lose their cutting edge. Closed large empires, such as China, Russia, and the Ottoman state, though not entirely impervious to progress, could not sustain their creativity in the long run. In Western Europe, political fragmentation and the “states system” prevented such stagnation.&quot;<p>3. &quot;The threat that a new idea would be adopted by a rival nation and that innovative subjects would migrate elsewhere if ill treated was a powerful incentive to overcome the inevitable opposition to progress from conservative circles or vested interests.&quot;