The Chinese government's approach to dealing with failing real-estate companies, including Evergrande, is distinct from typical Western bailouts. In China, the strategy often involves allowing such companies to default in a controlled manner. Given that the major lenders and banks are state-owned , this essentially means that the government bears the loss through these institutions (what else can happen anyway??) . Asset management companies are then allowed to bid for any remaining valuable assets of the failed company. The state government has also issued directives to local governments, ensuring they take responsibility for the completion of housing projects for homebuyers.<p>It's clear that there have been instances of questionable financial maneuvering by individuals behind these real estate companies, involving substantial sums of money being moved out of China through various, potentially illicit means. In Evergrande's case, critics point to dubious ventures, such as an automotive business that never produced cars, as potential vehicles for siphoning money to overseas entities. Additionally, the issuance of USD-denominated bonds—often purchased by shareholders—is another strategy that has been scrutinized.<p>To address these challenges, the Chinese government has enforced exit bans and placed these individuals under strict supervision. They are often required to return these funds to China, potentially under threat of reduced prison sentences. This sounds not right... but yeah... it is China. And China does not have other means to use like US to extradite fugitives or request the money back even it got all the evidence... exit-ban and blackmailing are the only way China can go...<p>As for Evergrande, while it's severely distressed, it continues to operate, largely as a 'zombie' company under state guidance, to resolve as much of its outstanding debt and obligations as possible. A full government bailout, in the Western sense, does not appear to be on the table.<p>Regarding the broader crisis, I feel the situation is largely controllable due to the extensive tools at the disposal of the Chinese government. It's almost certain that the authorities have already devised a comprehensive plan and roadmap to navigate this crisis 1-2 years ago...
There are many real estate giants and so-called "trust" companies who are incapable of repaying debt right now. Some of these companies have trillions in RMB on their balance sheets. The central bank can bail them out but at the expense of the assets of the middle and lower class. This would only further incentivize cash hoarding, and tighten the middle income trap. It is not an enviable situation.
Fears about the Chinese real estate sector have been around for at least a decade. The amount of stuff that has been erected is just mind-boggling and unprecedented in human history. You cannot "rightsize" an exponential process.<p>But a spectacular bust to obliterate all speculative busts is not the deterministic outcome in this instance. The intermingling or state finances, state supported banks etc. is also a major characteristic of the Chinese system. In such a system you can push around and hide issues, redistribute the pain wherever it is politically acceptable and other such "conveniences".<p>One interesting question is whether the work-from-home behavioral change is further affecting the oversupply of commercial real estate in China as it does elsewhere...
This isn't necessarily super bad in its own right even though it is a very large company and it signals that some of China's big developers are under water. The question is whether it is a harbinger or the whole of it. If the former there will be a domino effect just like what happened in 2008, but hopefully more limited to China. I imagine that 'heads will roll' is more than just a figurative expression here, Xi & co will do everything they can to lay the blame with others even though this clearly happened on their watch and is a failure of oversight as much as incompetence at Evergrande.<p>China real estate is a subject you could write several books on (and it probably has been done) it is a series of houses of cards that are all precariously balanced against each other and that is why the fall-out from this could be substantial.<p>It will be an interesting number of weeks, the larger questions that will determine some of the outcome are:<p>Who holds the debt?<p>Which other companies are overextended in the same way?<p>What will Xi & co do to deflect blame?<p>Are the assets valued fairly or are the worth much less in a sale than their book value?
(the bigger the discrepancy the larger the effect will be, for a giant of this size to fall over would have to result in a significant effect on the market)<p>This could be everything between 'meh' and 'there goes the house' and I have no idea how you'd get to <i>reliable</i> information from inside China to get those questions answered.
This is really a breathtaking legal situation.<p>Bankruptcy law typically trumps virtually all other laws, with not much to guide the court's discretion.<p>International bankruptcies are even weirder. In this case, US bankruptcy law has the power to intervene in ongoing bankruptcy proceedings in Hong Kong, Cayman's, etc.<p>Bankruptcy law protects debt-holders and the company, but not other stakeholders. As far as I know under US law the court has no basis to change anything for reasons of economic policy or impact. If the Hong Kong court pushes mainland Chinese interests, it's unclear to me how the other courts would respond.<p>Further, the due diligence required to qualify debts and debt-holders could uncover some unsettling relationships. I can imagine China viewing US bankruptcy discovery as an fishing expedition for intelligence.<p>Huge amounts, even larger consequences, and super-power competition would make this difficult even if the law were programmatic, but here so much depends on the court's discretion, and the court itself is the finder of fact. ("So much depends/on the red wheel barrow"?)<p>In the US we're lucky that these proceedings are mostly in the open and on the record (albeit sometimes only to record the results of debt-holder negotiations).
> China’s property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan<p>If it is "China’s property giant" why does it "files for bankruptcy protection in Manhattan" ? Why not in China ?
- Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale<p>-> This also result in immediate sold-out with 22X over-subscription.
My understanding is that lots of families invested their life savings into either having no apartments on paper or half-finished ones or some close to completion but unlivable.<p>Social unrest or govt bailout ???.<p>Who is holding the can for this one - Western investors ???.
Nice, creates corporation in tax havens to maximize tax dodging, files for bankruptcy in country that can actually put disgruntled debt owners to task. Good ol' capitalism.
How can a declining population selling mostly commoditized goods support ever increasing property prices, that too when property is already overleveraged!!<p>This crash was always on the cards. Just a matter of when, and the when may have finally arrived.
The 200$ billion hole in CN real estate is comparable in size to the SVB signature US banking crisis. In that case US treasury policy was a bailout for uninsured depositors who are wealthy supporters of the ruling blue party.<p>Most of the underwater property developers are wealthy patrons of the ruling red party in China and will ultimately receive similar government bailouts. Privatized gains and socialized losses it's the same movie everywhere.<p>But this is just theatre, on the order of 1 trillion disappearing in smoke is not going to sink the ship of any nation with 100 trillion in wealth assets.<p>edit: I should say this money doesn't really disappear in smoke, it's bourne on the backs of mostly middle classes amortization over the period of decades in hidden inflation taxes and marginal lower living standards.
I’m never sure if news about China’s upcoming economic problems is written because such an event is actually coming or if the media writes it just for the clicks.
Some real estate related news from China:<p>- Country garden, China's second biggest property company after Evergrande, missed a mere 22.5M payments for dollar denominated bonds. It is trying to restructure a $340B debt owned. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-defuse-economic-fears-after-real-estate-102332535" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/chinas-government-...</a><p>- Li Ka Shing, richest man in Hong Kong, just offered an immediate 30% off on his newest buildings for sale<p>- One of China's biggest shadow banks skipped payment. These shadow banks provide liquidity to real estate companies, in short. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/chinese-shadow-bank-misses-dozens-of-payments-as-fallout-spreads" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/chinese-s...</a><p>Some economic related news from China:<p>- China stopped reporting youth unemployment, estimated around 20-50%. Which is why nobody really thinks China is growing at 5%. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/15/china-economy-youth-unemployment-rate/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/15/china-econom...</a><p>- foreign investment fell down 87% from the same period last year, lowest level in 25 years. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-07/china-foreign-investment-gauge-at-25-year-low-amid-high-tensions?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-07/china-for...</a><p>- China's fertility rate dropped to record low 1.09 in 2022 <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-dr...</a><p>- China records fewest marriages in more than 3 decades <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/china/china-marriages-record-low-intl-hnk/index.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/china/china-marriages-record-...</a><p>- China's exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-plunge-in-july-exports-and-imports-missing-expectations.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-p...</a><p>- China's economy slipped into deflation <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66435870" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66435870</a>
There is a sort of balance where one market going down makes another go up. For example, real estate assets everywhere but China now look better in the long term.<p>Bank crashing = money printing = asset values go back up. Can't lose.
Will the stock market crash of 1929 happen again now?<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929</a>