"But anyone who thinks that killing a rival to reassert control is a show of strength, not weakness, is delusional."<p>In Putin's case, he is stronger, only because he has been severely weakened by this war. The bulk of the article is regarding the disagreeing or arguing with with a dictator, but Prigozhin didn't just disagree with him, he tried to lead the army against him. He cannot be allowed to live after that for Putin to remain in power. And the only way Putin leaves office is in a box.
As well as increasing paranoia levels among the Russian elite, there's the direct threat from what's left of Wagner.<p>A lot of Wagner people were willing to follow Prigozhin to Moscow. Many of them are serious people who know how to use extreme violence. It only needs a few of them to decide to take revenge for Putin to be in real peril.<p>If they succeed in offing Putin then the world is in for a period of frightening instability.
that opinion took a lot of words to miss the mark.<p>pierogi did far more than just disagree. he went against pupu, with weapons. he failed. then he waited. and waited. dead man walking. then falling from the sky.<p>pupu could, in just the right light (takes a tremendous amount of work) be described as patient, calculating, and strong, from these actions. he didn’t tolerate this upstart, but he didn’t lose his temper. he cleaned up a mess.<p>that’s far easier to sell than cloak-and-dagger poisonings and balcony falls for otherwise unknown “threats.” pierogi loved to mouth off on camera, and it’s not like it was the pope on the plane.<p>the linked opinion piece, on the other hand, goes on and on about how pupu is zugzwang - it smells like the sweaty, crinkled term paper for a political think tank homework assignment on attempts at influencing geopolitics via shitty social media pieces.
I don't understand why anyone thinks Prigozhin is dead. Of course they had to make it look like this, this is obvious to everyone, there was no other way, but given the complexity of the situation I'd be extremely surprised if he was actually dead.
That seems silly. Weaker by what measure? Russia is weaker than before the war in many measurable ways. Putin is weaker in connection to that. He couldn't even leave to visit an ally because neither wanted to be in a difficult position re arrest. That looks very weak.<p>Killing Prigozhin I don't think it goes one way or the other.
In general, a state maintains order by monopolizing violence = army, so it is clear that the Wagner Group, which claims that Putin is responsible for Prigozhin's death, is unlikely to follow Putin, resulting in a very politically unstable situation since there will be two armies in Russia.
I think people wishing for the death of Putin have a real lack of imagination for what comes immediately after.<p>Maybe the replacement just wants to end the war? How do they do that exactly? I know at least one way with a high probability of success.
TL;DR:<p>> At some point, the impulse to develop an insurance policy for self-preservation is going to grow stronger. And in dictatorships, that impulse — when shared and coordinated between elites — leads to the downfall of dictatorships.