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When does federal debt reach unsustainable levels?

68 pointsby LastNevadanover 1 year ago

26 comments

_uhtuover 1 year ago
I don't like just treating trust fund debt as if it doesn't exist. It's not so much that the government owes itself that money, it owes the American people that money via Social Security. So it's as much a public debt as any other. I especially don't like ignoring it like this because it implies the US government simply needs to ignore that obligation to the public, let millions retire with no safety net, and just default on trillions of debt. It's horrible from every financial perspective. What should be mentioned is that Social Security could easily be well in the black with even higher payments to retirees by simply raising the income limit on the social security tax. The biggest problem with funding Social Security is that income inequality has ballooned, so more and more income is exempt from the tax.
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kelseyfrogover 1 year ago
&gt; the moonshot model combines mathematical advances with large-scale computing to solve the “curse of dimensionality” commonly found in quantum computing problems.<p>Had to stop reading at the point. The curse of dimensionality is, in fact, completely independent from any sense of &quot;quantum&quot; computing problems. Given that their understanding of the CoD is so poor, I can only assume the author has an equally poor understanding of everything else they are writing about.
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JakeAlover 1 year ago
US debt to GDP ratio is greater than 120%. The IMF defines that as an economic death spiral. By 2028 the loan payments we make on all that debt&#x2F;money we printed will only cover the interest, no longer the principal, and the death spiral becomes irreversible with US insolvency by 2042. Historically, we are at the point where there&#x27;s a depression, war, and&#x2F;or a new monetary system. That&#x27;s how they reset and seize more power. We need not only a balanced budget amendment, but massive spending&#x2F;entitlement cuts and austerity, as well as boost in GDP&#x2F;exports because we can&#x27;t service our own debt and have relied on other nations to buy our bonds. They are selling our bonds and not buying these days. Markets WERE looking at a lost decade, but the past week or so have been looking at 30 year treasuries, so 30 years.
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netbioserrorover 1 year ago
In my estimation, there are two unsustainable end states, one economic, one social.<p>Economically, it seems things will fall apart when interest payments balloon to become by far the dominating expense of the US government. At this point, the runaway cost of interest will force even faster money printing, resulting in a positive hyperinflationary feedback loop. Eventually the printing will outpace economic growth, which means inflation will be cannibalizing the actual economic output of the people. People will either stop working or find other mediums to trade in.<p>The social endpoint can happen at any point along the way there. It&#x27;s a fairly well-known historical reality that a failing elite faces the threat of replacement when new elites can obtain the blessing of the populace; otherwise the populace is hopeless. A campaign to permanently stamp down potential new leaders wherever they may arise is feasible for a limited time but eventually becomes too expensive or diverts all attention away from important material realities. Once there is a cycling of the elites, a drastic shift in policy would undoubtedly be the result. In this scenario, it&#x27;s highly like that violence occurs.<p>I&#x27;d obviously much prefer the first scenario, where people find other ways to trade peacefully before they start a revolution.
throw0101aover 1 year ago
Well, Japan (which is mentioned) has debt-to-GDP ratio that is currently at 263%:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;National_debt_of_Japan" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;National_debt_of_Japan</a><p>The UK has been over 150% a number of times, as well as over 200% (nearly 250%):<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;File:UK_debt_as_GDP_percent.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;File:UK_debt_as_GDP_percent.pn...</a><p>With interst-as-GDP getting close to 10%:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;United_Kingdom_national_debt#&#x2F;media&#x2F;File:UK_National_Debt_interest.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;United_Kingdom_national_debt#&#x2F;...</a><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;United_Kingdom_national_debt" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;United_Kingdom_national_debt</a><p>For the US (#5, towards bottom):<p>&gt; <i>Debt service as a share of federal outlays peaked at more than 15% in the mid-1990s, but generally falling interest rates have helped hold down payments even as the dollar amount continues to grow.</i><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pewresearch.org&#x2F;short-reads&#x2F;2023&#x2F;02&#x2F;14&#x2F;facts-about-the-us-national-debt&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pewresearch.org&#x2F;short-reads&#x2F;2023&#x2F;02&#x2F;14&#x2F;facts-abo...</a>
cs702over 1 year ago
Right near the top, the authors briefly mention their critical assumption:<p><i>&gt; As we have discussed elsewhere, government debt reduces economic activity by crowding out private capital formation ...</i><p>I stopped reading at that point, because <i>many economists disagree with that assumption</i>. To understand why, consider:<p>* When the US government borrows to spend on things like, say, battleships, fighter jets, satellites, AI software, etc., every dollar it spends is a dollar of revenues to a <i>private</i> company like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, etc., which invests in its business, <i>inducing</i> private capital formation.<p>* When the US government borrows to spend on healthcare, every dollar it spends is a dollar of revenues to a <i>private</i> hospital, vendor, practice, or doctor, all of whom invest in technology, facilities, training, etc., <i>inducing</i> private capital formation.<p>* When the US government borrows to spend on <i>anything</i>, every dollar it spends is a dollar of revenues to a <i>private entity or citizen</i> -- who else? What matters is whether that entity or citizen invests a portion of those revenues in endeavors that induce private capital formation in the US.<p>Things are not as simple and clear-cut as the authors would like them to be!
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mark_l_watsonover 1 year ago
I don’t know the answer to this, but in the future, perhaps in 10 years, we will be able to look back with hindsight and better understand the wax and waning of yet another empire.<p>I am an old man, and one thing I have learned in a long life is that if something seems unclear, then wait a few years for more data.
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Kon-Pekiover 1 year ago
If one were to accept the premise that it will eventually reach some unsustainable level, then it makes sense to start wondering what course of action an individual person&#x2F;household can take to best prepare for such an event.<p>Putting all of your money into Bitcoin&#x2F;gold right now is a terrible idea for an event predicted to occur in 20 years. So what do you do now? Next year?
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bullenover 1 year ago
The answer is: &quot;when the world stops using the dollar&quot;.<p>There is no spoon.
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mannyvover 1 year ago
If the US was an IMF country it would be way off the reservation. The amount of outstanding debt is massive, and I don&#x27;t think any of the older models would be able to handle it.<p>If anything, today&#x27;s environment negates the reality of &quot;crowding out.&quot;<p>That said, the debt will be at an &quot;unsustainable level&quot; when people stop buying it.
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Gabriel_Martinover 1 year ago
I find monetary alarmism so lazy and yet I always feel compelled to comment.<p>I’ve never heard a compelling argument to explain just how a monetary system in which all monetized debt becomes privately held wealth, can be framed as debt being a “scary, unsustainable thing” as if it’s household debt. At least this article frames it as a relationship with investors, but it still doesn’t cut to the meat of the issue, to me at least.<p>Writing debt in an out of existence seems way more conceptually scary than it is dangerous in reality, at least for an economy where households spend on average about 5,000 dollars a month.<p>It seems a much more important topic is monetary hegemony, than some certain debt to GDP ratio, but I never seem to see those concepts mentioned.
uoaeiover 1 year ago
This is the wrong question. When does federal debt <i>increase rate</i> become unsustainable?<p>As common wisdom states, <i>federal debt is public surplus</i>. It&#x27;s the set of things that the federal government has invested funding in that haven&#x27;t been liquidated. This includes roads, streetlights, parks, power substations, etc.<p>The relevant question for our economy is <i>how quickly is the federal government spending, and what is the value created from that spending</i>?
matwoodover 1 year ago
When the US no longer projects military, economic, and cultural power all around the world.
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throw0101aover 1 year ago
For some background on the authors&#x27; thinking, two of them previously published:<p>Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters, <i>Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures for New Budget Priorities</i>, American Enterprise Institute, AEI Press: 2003.<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.aei.org&#x2F;research-products&#x2F;book&#x2F;fiscal-and-generational-imbalances&#x2F;" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.aei.org&#x2F;research-products&#x2F;book&#x2F;fiscal-and-genera...</a><p>Also from 2005, on Social Security:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;papers.ssrn.com&#x2F;sol3&#x2F;papers.cfm?abstract_id=649204" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;papers.ssrn.com&#x2F;sol3&#x2F;papers.cfm?abstract_id=649204</a><p>Smetters previously (1999) on models to privatize Social Security:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencedirect.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;pii&#x2F;S1094202599900686" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencedirect.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;article&#x2F;pii&#x2F;S109420259...</a>
neilwilsonover 1 year ago
It never does.<p>By definition the debt exists because people want to save. If they didn&#x27;t want to save they&#x27;d spend and if they spend it is taxed which closes the deficit.<p>It&#x27;s a simple geometric series.<p>Japan has debt to GDP ratios of 268% with both interest rates and inflation near the floor.<p>The mental model people are using is simply wrong.
bilekasover 1 year ago
Every time the opposing political party is in power.
purpleblueover 1 year ago
According to Modern Monetary Theory, debt levels do not matter. Japan has sustained a 200% debt-to-GDP level for decades. I don&#x27;t think the US has very much to worry about for a while, despite all the fearmongering.
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23B1over 1 year ago
It already happened, arguably in 1971 when they destroyed the dollar: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;wtfhappenedin1971.com" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;wtfhappenedin1971.com</a>
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brightballover 1 year ago
A lot of people would argue it reached it about 10 years ago.
3seashellsover 1 year ago
When the resource that backs it, aka imperial security provided vs economic value extracedrreaches zero. So the answer is.. Global war, global collapse..
tikuover 1 year ago
It is only a problem if you can&#x27;t pay the interest right? Why is that? My home has to be payed in full, interest and the base sum.
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supernova87aover 1 year ago
It seems to me that people will believe the US is good for its debts until we behave like it isn&#x27;t. Japan, of course you know, has debt like 300% of GDP so clearly some kinds of countries are able to manage even ridiculous amounts.<p>The problem though, is that the US seems to be behaving like it may not be good for its debts lately. Not that it can&#x27;t outgrow them, but just that things are getting more worrisome payment-wise.<p>You remember we used to have budget crises and shutdowns every once in a while (every few years), decades ago. But now it happens like every 2 years, and it seems like it&#x27;s getting worse. And you never think that disaster will strike until it does. One of these days we&#x27;re going to miss a bond payment, because some leader will want to &quot;show everyone&quot;, and people will be shook, I think, when everyone realizes that the US is not some special country that can never default on its debt. That will be a sad day.<p>And it&#x27;s all the more likely when everything is 50:50 paralyzed -- very easy for one bad step to take us over the brink while everyone is unable to do anything. I&#x27;m no fan of the ridiculous right wing &quot;republicans&quot; who are playing games in Congress, but they do (by accident) have one thing right. We are really far from balancing the budget[0], and both the spending and the debt are getting worse over time with demographic pressure. Not that &quot;balancing the budget&quot; is a requirement in the simplistic household way that they or the public generally think. Incurring debt has its purposes for a growing sovereign nation. But the way we&#x27;re doing it &#x2F; reasons we&#x27;re doing it for is sleepwalking our way into a big hole.<p>Unless we&#x27;re willing to behave as a country like it&#x27;s not a problem, it <i>is</i> a problem, and growing.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2023&#x2F;03&#x2F;06&#x2F;upshot&#x2F;balancing-budget-painful-spending-cuts.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2023&#x2F;03&#x2F;06&#x2F;upshot&#x2F;balanc...</a>
phpisthebestover 1 year ago
Federal Debt reached unsustainable levels long before I was born..
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exabrialover 1 year ago
Around 2002.
6stringmercover 1 year ago
Never it’s fiat money therefore all debt is illusory in spreadsheets predominately but nobody wants to go in and change the valuations or formulas with any efficacy…<p>The top of the top investor class is pretty much dying off with their estates structured like a CDO inside of a CDS hidden in a tranche pinned to both LIBOR and the Japanese birth rate, divided by the number of penguins in the San Diego Zoo.<p>After the disaster of higher education in the US getting unsustainable bloat thanks to Federal backing for debt but not ways to earn income (sorry Boomers vote their own interests and have Gen Y n Z pay for it)…it would be a great sign of financial integrity and creditworthiness as a nation to hurry up and treat that debt like prohibition - didn’t work, change it.
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ram4jesusover 1 year ago
Since the US exports terrorism and instability across the Global South, I support wholeheartedly a balanced budget aimed at eliminating most if not all debt because it would necessitate decreasing the military budget; having expressed that wishful statement, we all know that will never happen.<p>With my accelerationist viewpoint, the continued debt explosion could neuter American military intervention thousands of miles off its coasts in the endgame; but that would require some sort of collapse where I probably, an unwilling funder of the American military, would also suffer - but that is ok if it means stopping the killings abroad.<p>I think the debt explosion, assuming infinite and stable growth, is on purpose: it creates forever wars that we citizens have no say in. And as a result, the debt will continue to balloon forever.
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