Toyota and Japanese auto manufacturers in general (except Nissan, which is crossed owned by French automaker Renault S.A.) are legging behind in EV development either because they chose the Hydrogen fuel cell route when investing R&D money in the past few decades, probably 10s of billions USD by now. It was a catastrophic strategic mistake. Because of heavy bet on non-EV and the decades of R&D on a dead-end on fuel cell technologies, they have always been wishy-washy about EV investments and productions. The further they delayed their investment in EV technology, the more they are lagging behind in battery tech and EV drivetrain and infotainment systems, as evidently as bZ4X etc.<p>But the report accurately pointed out the main reason for sales decline is due to the fierce competition in Chinese market where Chinese domestic EV brands are rising rapidly - just as how it was developed for the smartphone in the early 2010s. The iteration speed of product development and governmental support in EV transportation shift drives the huge recent sales success in Chinese EV brands like BYD.
They don't want to have to make EVs, they've said so repeatedly for years (mixed with the occasional "We know how to make the best EVs and we'll release them a few years from now! Honest!".<p>Meanwhile they're being leapfrogged. Unless you work for Toyota or you have shares in them, it doesn't really matter.
I guess by comparison to pure EV’s they’re in a good position in the hybrid market for anyone who needs longer range and quick gas refills. But their EV competitors are all currently moving down the experience curve and building scale and capacity. This will be harder to rejoin the party later, especially if eg Tesla and BYD stay aggressive on pricing.
Incredible that may still sell 123 000 of their disappointing electric vehicles after their marketing department did shit so much on electric vehicles for years.<p>I feel a bit sorry for the few uninformed elderly people who bought a BZ4X without reading anything about it, trusting their favourite brand.
As a potential consumer of a replacement vehicle I agree with this - I don't want an EV right now, I want a hybrid - all the advantages: low pollution local driving, higher efficiency due to regenerative braking, plug it in no need to fill up - none of the drawbacks: unlimited range for when I go on a long trip (I'm unwilling to wait more than 10 minutes to recharge/refuel. And yes I'm aware of eating and bathrooms.)
I can see both sides to this argument (saying this as someone who owns property in multiple countries and has an electric (Tesla Model 3LR), Plug in Hybrid(Chevy Volt 2nd gen) and ICE cars (A 20 year old Volvo S60 and 22 year old Audi TT)).<p>Toyota's competitive advantage has always been to use slightly older perfected technology that will last a long time instead of cutting edge technology with more problems etc. That is why they are known to be reliable cars with high resale values.<p>In the US it mostly is a decent decision to buy electric (and I love my Tesla and Volt) but there are some caveats.
1. The insurance tends to be a bit more expensive.
2. You need to have a place with charging infrastructure (like your own home or an apartment etc. that has free charging).
3. Paid chargers often have similar costs to buying gas for ICE vehicles.
4. Battery degradation is a thing. As someone who lives in the SouthEast and likes to keep cars for 10-15+ years that becomes an issue with cars like the Volt where the only option that makes economic sense when the battery dies is to try to find a refurb from another vehicle if the car is out of warranty. The Tesla is not as likely to have that issue because a lot more were produced, but if other offerings have after sales support similar to the volt because of lower than expected sales volumes that becomes a perception issue down the road unless you want to just purchase a car, take a big depreciation hit and then trade it in a few years.
5. depreciation see #4.
6. Sales are currently slowing down with inventory piling up even with federal subsidies right now. Imagine how much lower it would be without them.
7. To add more range to a car like the Tesla you need to add more batteries which adds a lot of weight to the car (they have already gone after most the low hanging fruit with motor efficiency and vehicle wind drag). Because of the weight it goes through tires a lot quicker. (30K miles vs 60K average for tires)<p>With the Tesla, it is practical for my needs, but I bought it more so because it is fun to drive, I like the tech etc..<p>Other countries, outside of Europe, China and other developed nations are a mixed bag.<p>For example in Costa Rica, where I have a property, even with the government tax discounts it doesn't make any sense because electric is really expensive there and it is difficult to get parts is something goes wrong. Also, if you want a car that you are not going to drive a lot of miles in every year there is also the issue of time degrading your battery which is going to be a lot more expensive and difficult to replace there.<p>South Africa has so many current problems with their electric grid that they heavily tax BEV's instead of offering tax breaks like other countries. Ironically, having solar panels and batteries for a house makes more sense there.<p>....and guess which car brand is has one of the higher theft rates because of parts and resale around the world....Toyota. They also have a very large market share in a large percentage of the world as a top producer.<p>While I'm not sure that hydrogen will gain traction, because of the slow market adoption it will not surprise me if the legislation around the world to ban ICE sales ends up being relaxed before it takes effect and the transition happens much more slowly.
Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. Toyota has always leaned into hybrids and away from full-electric models. They just aren't very good at competing in the full-electric market. So it makes sense for them to issue a self-serving "forecast" and simultaneously announce that they're pushing hybrids instead.