Pretty sure if total employment, revenues, and profits for the tech industry will still be up from 2019. The recent tech “recession” is just a correction for the bubble that had happened during Covid WFH.
The economy is capable of shrugging off almost anything. People don't sit around wallowing in their sorrows unless there are strong incentives to do so.<p>The conversation often treats a crisis like some sort of storm that blows in unexpectedly. They aren't. An economic crisis is people being forced to realise that an obviously wasteful activity can't go on any longer and the resources have to be reallocated to something useful.<p>If there is the will to let obvious failures go broke and cease activities any shock is short, sharp and highly transitory. The problem is 2008-style responses where productive money starts being rerouted to propping up incompetent and wasteful institutions.
Every tech company of appreciable size and bureaucracy is carried by 20% of employees, while the other 80% are some level of checked out / coasting. Every quarter that interest rates remain high, more of that 80% is identified and excised. Yes the lazies do some amount of work, but usually the 20% of high performers can automate the terminated people’s jobs enough to carry that load as well.<p>My advice is to not rest on your laurels. If you are concerned you could be seen in the 80% of lazies, maybe put some extra effort in, work some late nights and weekends, at least as performance reviews come up. Life isn’t fair. Sometimes you need to work a real 40 hour week, even in tech.
300k baby boombers retire each month, if the number of jobs added is 250k (which is around where its been), its a net 50k loss. In addition, the gdp/stock price doesn't reflect the average life for the random guy on the streets.
This is a classic case of mixing up the "Economy" with the "stock market". The stock market and SPX is doing great for the last 5 days (and for nefarious reasons, I should add).<p>The economy can NOT be doing good. Interest rate is sucking up all liquidity, fed is in QT phase and China is dumping treasuries. Japan will soon start dumping US treasuries as well as soon as it drops YCC.<p>fyi, US GDP only sky rocketed from "Durable goods" which mostly includes arms sent to Ukraine and Israel. Canada always mirrors US GDP and for one of the few times in history its GDP shrank (because they didnt supply arms).<p>I dont want to get too political in this climate but we are rolling down a hill and Noah is like "we doing good. Look we so fast!"