I read FIRE subreddits a lot and see a little too much optimism and unreasonable expectations. They are ready to retire with just another decade of incredible stock market returns. It’s rarely that easy. All signs point to another lost decade coming, like after 1968 and 2000, that is going to break a lot of hearts I’m afraid. Unless they plan for it appropriately and have reasonable expectations.<p><a href="https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/</a><p><a href="https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica...</a><p><a href="https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings...</a><p><a href="https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/s&p500-mean-reversion.php" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/s&p500-mean-re...</a>
> For Gen Zs, there seems to be a correlation between gambling and investing—particularly, high-risk investing. In the United States, 61% of surveyed Gen Z investors said they gamble online or in person, compared with 29% of non-investors surveyed. Their propensity for gambling is also associated with riskier investments; 70% of US Gen Z investors who gamble frequently invest in crypto, and 38% invest in non-fungible tokens.<p>(from the CFA Institute survey cited in TFA, <a href="https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/en/research/reports/2023/gen-z-investing" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/en/research/reports/2023/gen-z-...</a>)
<i>> Given that financial advisors say that Gen Z will need roughly $3 million for a 20-year retirement — a high bar even for smart money managers</i><p>If we assume a 2% inflation rate going forward, that's only ~$600,000 in today's dollars. Seems like a relatively low bar, no?
Gen Xer here. I also want to retire early, but... not off to a good... middle? That's in large part my own fault - it wasn't even a consideration or on my radar for a very long time.<p>I came from a blue collar background, hand-to-mouth background. We were, as John Scalzi would say, "broke" but not quite "poor." My parents didn't retire so much as age out of the workforce and scrape by.<p>Hope Gen Z'ers do better than I have...
> Gen Z started saving for retirement at the median age of 19, earlier than any other generation<p>? Median? These numbers seem unrealistic for anyone I know who went to college, and those who didn't are in low pay jobs with no retirement plan
1. Does all of this just rely on surveys instead of real data?
2. Investing for old age retirement is seen a necessity, since many people in my generation (Germany, 1989) don't believe they'll get pensions above what everyone gets as social safety net anyway.
3. Since nothing relies on actual numbers, it's hard to tell whether GenZ is just more savings-conscious, as compared to really saving more. A boomer that bought a house on credit in the 70s invested more than a comparable GenZ who invests in an ETF what little money they have left after paying rent.
4. With most GenZ working safe desk jobs - which goes easy on their health and is also easier to do in old age - I doubt they will <i>have</i> to retire as early (let alone even earlier!) as the generations before them.