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Ludum Mortuus Est

80 pointsby davikrover 1 year ago

24 comments

atlanticover 1 year ago
The title should be "ludus mortuus est", the game is dead. Ludus takes the nominative, since it's the subject of the sentence. And mortuus also takes the nominative, because it's a nominative complement. Google Translate will only take you so far.
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tyleoover 1 year ago
While I empathize with the message about layoffs, the tone of this article is too hyperbolic for my tastes, “Game development is in an extinction level event crisis, and it is entirely self inflicted.”<p>The games industry makes more money than music and movies combined. It’s no where close to extinction. It does have all the problems of any entertainment industry though where the creators love the product and put up with unfair wages, hours, and personalities at the cost of their own well being.
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bee_riderover 1 year ago
I wonder how the market will shake out…<p>Generally I see AAA studios churning out Boring Shooter: 2024 Q1 edition. Pay $70 for the same engine, some balance tweaks, and a new map. But their games are pretty because they are the only ones who can afford to buy millions to make assets.<p>Indie games are, of course, where all the interesting mechanics are invented.<p>If AI makes it easy to generate assets, why won’t the AAA studios feel the pain first? Of course, everyone would love a stable job, and it is really sad when they lose them. But the management just contributes coordination. Maybe we’re heading toward a world small teams can leverage AI to fill their skill gaps, they can make some actually interesting games, and the AAA studios can go extinct. The game shattering Steam records was made by like 10 people apparently, and I think they didn’t even use AI (as far as I know).<p>None of this puts food on the table now of course, but the future could be better.
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karaterobotover 1 year ago
&gt; hope you liked the games of 2023 because that&#x27;s all folks [...] Game development is in an extinction level event crisis<p>Okay, we&#x27;ll wait and see whether games are really dead this time next year. That&#x27;s an easy one to confirm, since he gave a prediction and a timeline. We can just wait a year and see if he&#x27;s right, or if he&#x27;s being hyperbolic to the point of inanity. Being really generous, I&#x27;ll interpret his prediction as weaker than stated and say that the prediction is confirmed if there are 25% fewer games released this year than last.
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jknoepflerover 1 year ago
I struggled to find anything of substance in this article. How did 2023 differ from 2022? Why does laying off 5% of the AAA workforce (which part?) correspond to an AI apocalypse in 2024? What is this article actually arguing, and why should I care?<p>For example, the author opines that<p>&gt; Games in 2024 and 2025 will be a few labors of love, from indie developers or the few good AAA development houses still running, and piles upon piles upon piles of AI-generated vomit that will make people nostalgic for the days when most of Steam&#x27;s catalog was Unity Store asset flips.<p>&gt; And gamers won&#x27;t buy them.<p>The only games I cared about in 2023 were from indie developers or labors of love. But... &quot;gamers&quot; bought them. At least I did. Am I a &quot;gamer&quot;? Are the titles I care about going to suddenly fail in 2024? I don&#x27;t see any evidence for that in the article. Will sales of titles I don&#x27;t care about fall in 2024? I don&#x27;t see any evidence for that in the article either.<p>I didn&#x27;t buy any Unity Store asset flips or AI generated nonsense or NFT-powered whatever or gacha b.s. or Call of Duty 20XX: Shootie-Person Redux, and I wasn&#x27;t planning on doing so in 2024. Should I be concerned about that industry?<p>I don&#x27;t put much value in the EA&#x2F;Activision&#x2F;Blizzard&#x2F;Tencent&#x2F;etc. gaming shops. I haven&#x27;t for a long time, though. If the market somehow killed those studios, I&#x27;d struggle to call that a bad thing? Should I think differently?
pprotasover 1 year ago
&gt; And gamers won&#x27;t buy them.<p>There is an even darker possible future: gamers WILL buy this AI generated crap. And the executives know it, since gamers have been buying their low effort budget cut pre-order alpha crap for years.
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bwestergardover 1 year ago
The situation in game dev not so different from Hollywood before unionization, where the workers who produced the content could be barely scraping by while the films they worked on created tremendous profits for studio heads and investors. As in the old days of Hollywood, workers&#x27; passion for their work was weaponized against the,
GaggiXover 1 year ago
The fact that this article was written the day before the release of Palworld makes it a bit funny, we&#x27;re not even a month into 2024 and there&#x27;s already a game that&#x27;s the third all-time peak game on Steam for concurrent players, the highest if you don&#x27;t count free-to-play games like CS and PUBG, and it&#x27;s also the most played game at the moment.<p>So far, the doom and gloom prediction that games are almost dead doesn&#x27;t seem to be true. At the end of the day, the only thing that really matters about your game is whether it&#x27;s fun or not, and almost no one would care if a game used AI if people found it fun to play.
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dustedover 1 year ago
&gt; Game development is in an extinction level event crisis, and it is entirely self inflicted.<p>Looking at modern gaming and the modern games industry, I&#x27;m finding it pretty hard to be sad about it though.<p>The best games were finished before they were put onto physical media, to be owned and played forever.<p>I&#x27;m entirely okay if the rest of the future was only peoples passion projects.
zecgover 1 year ago
From the perspective of gamers, it&#x27;s actually better than ever. UE5 means a single dude can make his roguelite with no compromises, AI means he can also make passable assets. It&#x27;s just Ubisoft and EA and the other shitty conglomerates that are going to have to downsize and I for one am looking forward to it.
jacknewsover 1 year ago
If compensation is all about performance bonuses, and then only when projects are successful, projects should just become collectives. There&#x27;s no justification for having an &#x27;owner&#x27; in that case.
netbioserrorover 1 year ago
I’m unimpressed with AAA game studios and the game dev employment pipeline. People KNOW that there’s a perpetual supply glut of devs lied up around the corner, but still peddle their labor in a buyer’s market. They KNOW they’ll work on giant over-produced design-by-committee games that are awards-bait or gambling platforms and little more. They KNOW these companies are publicly traded and that accountants at public companies value creative vision and institutional knowledge at absolute zero. They KNOW indie is a saturated market with very few inspired designs that can be profitable even if the conditions are right.<p>Working in game dev and then complaining about the conditions looks like running out in the rain and complaining it’s wet. I have next to no sympathy for the unionization activism. A huge part of how marketable your skillset is comes down to the nicheness of the domain, or at least how applicable your skills are to various niche domains. Game dev is not niche, and you’ve all made your bed chasing this dream.
Lazareover 1 year ago
I sympathise with the author and agree that there are some pretty terrible stories and numbers floating around, but the unstated premise of the article seems to be:<p>The game industry is monolithic, it has recently undergone a sweeping change, but no further change is possible, therefore it is safe to make a linear projection based on what&#x27;s happened over the last six months out to infinity. And I&#x27;m skeptical that those are good assumptions to make.<p>&gt; Epic Games in September laid off over 800 people, almost 15% of the entire company. Epic is one of the most successful and profitable game companies that exist. [...] For years, every other game company has tried to copy Fortnite, and mostly failed at the attempt. This is not enough to ensure job security<p>Okay, yeah, that&#x27;s interesting, and no doubt traumatic for the people who were fired, their colleagues we have so far avoided it, and for devs working in the broader industry, and I am sympathetic. But: Sometimes companies overhire, sometimes corporate priorities shift, sometimes a company decides to reorient towards a leaning production model. Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn&#x27;t. There isn&#x27;t <i>any</i> industry where overall profitability is, alone, enough to ensure job security. (And I&#x27;d also suggest that putting these layoffs in the context of the broader tech industry and the end of zero interest rates might also yield some useful insights...)<p>In any case, if Epic fires a bunch of devs, and profitability drops, then that was a mistake and they will try to staff back up. And if it doesn&#x27;t (or rises) then that suggests that game development is actually <i>more profitable</i> than previously expected and individual game devs are <i>more productive</i> than previous realised, which will of course be cold comfort for the devs laid off, but suggests that overall employment and compensation across the broader industry will be tracking upwards not downwards, which is good news for game devs as a whole in the medium to long term.<p>To be clear: I do not want for one moment to defend the big studios (who appear, by and large, to have C-suites full of pod people who delight in human misery), or to minimise the very real pain suffered by gave devs, but the idea that an entire industry can somehow run off a cliff in a way which is <i>permenantly non-recoverable</i> is...well, let&#x27;s say it&#x27;s a bold claim that needs extraordinary support.<p>&gt; Games in 2024 and 2025 will be a few labors of love...<p>Yeah, plausible. But what do you think is going to happen in 2026 and 2027?
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AdamH12113over 1 year ago
It&#x27;s hard to let them eat cake when the cake is a lie.
Lucasoatoover 1 year ago
I feel close to everyone who lost his&#x2F;her job, especially in this moment of crisis in which it seems harder and harder to find one.<p>All societies in the world should have mechanisms to protect vulnerable people in moments like these.<p>At the same time it’s impossible to reflect on the fact that maybe the videogame industry is extremely crowded and a lot of tasks will require less employees as the AI advances. As humans, do we really need to have this many people employed in videogame development?<p>The problem is that with capitalism, the only way to find out is by iterating economic cycles in which a lot of vulnerable people get abused. (Not claiming that any other economical system known to man would solve this issue in a better way)
wly_cdgrover 1 year ago
Games will be fine, anyway we have more than enough
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readthenotes1over 1 year ago
I&#x27;m playing City of heroes which was published in 2004. What is dead?
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nearmuseover 1 year ago
You don&#x27;t die if you lose 20% of your body mass in fat.
lmmover 1 year ago
The games industry has been due a correction for years. Too many people want to make games, relative to how many games the world actually wants or needs. Wages and working conditions are always going to be terrible.
Keeeeeeeksover 1 year ago
The nuance that&#x27;s lost in the article: - Game Devs are similar and different to SWEs. The differences are that most game devs are contractors, work long hours, usually get underpaid given the work they&#x27;re doing(they&#x27;re working with low level languages to make droplets on Spiderman&#x27;s suit look realistic enough for Youtube commenters).<p>- AI is &#x27;good enough&#x27; for a lot of industries, and will be continued to go to market when it&#x27;s &#x27;good enough&#x27; for a given industry.<p>- That said, AI in games as it stands is really buggy. A &quot;Good Enough&quot; relationship, dialogue tree, Social Graph LLM for a game might take so much time finetuning that it may always be better to just start with Twine or an excel sheet.<p>- Gamers (with a capital G) are different from gamers. Gamers are the gaming equivalent of armchair food critics. They hate AI, and will brigade anything with a whiff of it, and will demonize anyone or anything that pushes back on them, even if the Gamers are wrong (see the &#x27;Baldurs Gate Xalavier&#x27; drama).<p>- The issue is that Gamers are the influencers that determine whether the long tail of games (games that aren&#x27;t AAA mainstays, yearly sports games, or the top multiplayer games) get enough momentum and traction to pop up for less serious gamers.<p>- Gamers hate AI, and will do everything in their power to make every content creator &#x27;acknowledge the controversy&#x27; (these &#x27;cancel culture&#x27;-adjacent dynamics are all downstream from Gamergate). Comnsidering Gamers are often the enthusiasts most game studios need to swing digital game store algos in their favor, you don&#x27;t want to build a game that becomes a &#x27;stand-in for a controversial topic.&#x27;<p>- If the game is polished enough and is a AAA game that has a dedicated audience, it&#x27;ll get bought in spite of that.<p>- If the game was AA or indie, the influencers who&#x27;d amplify the game in other instances will talk about it like the end of True Artistic Gaming.<p>- This leads to less MTX-like games getting funded, because the long tail of gamers are mobile, and most mobile games are miniaturized one-way casinos with WoW guild warfare grafted onto it.<p>- If there are more layoffs as the gaming industry&#x27;s financiers go risk off for lower ROI games, then only the AAA, P2W, gacha, battle pass games get funded, which creates a feedback loop.<p>So yes, games as an industry will continue to rake in money because gacha games, battle passes, and MTX business models make the overwhelming majority of the industry&#x27;s revenue. What&#x27;s being missed is that what saved gaming from the ET gaming market crash and took it to $1 billion in sales for Counter Strike lootboxes was the passion and specialized labor of a lot of people. A lot of issues with game development preservation have accumulated (losing source code, laying off people who knew how to build critically acclaimed games before doing knowledge transfer, etc), and will compound as thousands of people get laid off, and people either dial in core parts of games, or outsource logic to an LLM.<p>The article acts as a lamentation, because the games that most people above the age of 20 grew up with are not going to be made as often anymore, unless there&#x27;s some way to introduce a whale&#x2F;guppy power dynamic with online play, or a battle pass, or gacha &quot;Pay-to-Win&quot; mechanic that pays for itself within a few weeks of launch.
slowhadokenover 1 year ago
I mean as much as I love game dev I understand there is a lot of anxious dead wood in the AAA scene. Timothy Cain talked about it recently <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=LMVQ30c7TcA" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=LMVQ30c7TcA</a>
quasarjover 1 year ago
Ah yes, someone in yet another industry discovers capitalism, especially the joy of infinite growth capitalism! Nothing to see here
klik99over 1 year ago
Jeez, anything that happened in 2023 is now blamed on AI? That&#x27;s some great marketing for sama.<p>Unfortunately it misses the point - a huge number of these layoffs were companies purchased by Embracer Group, so a big part of it is overleveraged attempt at consolidation failing spectacularly. Secondly is just game industry cycle at big companies of overhiring and cutting fat. Thirdly is overall layoffs in tech industry in 2022-2023.<p>AI maybe had a small role in the unusually high number of layoffs in 2023 but it&#x27;s far from the biggest factor, but the more banal truth is it was a combination of different events.
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slilyover 1 year ago
Sounds like the author was unaware that he was riding an economic bubble.
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