For those who are not aware, and I think it is important to Note, Canon is not a new entry to the industry. They were actually competing with ASML before they gave up in the early 10s.<p>They are aiming at 5nm in 2025 and extend it to 2nm in 2027+. I guess in real world terms you can add at least 1 year to it even in the most optimistic scenario.<p>I dont expect many logic chips will be using it, given the sunk cost involves in all the new and older design with current tools and manufacturing. But if it works it would be <i>very</i> exciting for DRAM and NAND.
FTA: <i>“Canon’s nanoimprint lithography — a technology under development for more than 15 years but which the company says is only now commercially viable — stamps chip designs on to silicon wafers rather than etching them using light.”</i><p>It seems everything old is new again. <a href="https://thechipletter.substack.com/p/leaving-arizona" rel="nofollow">https://thechipletter.substack.com/p/leaving-arizona</a>:<p><i>“there was a reason the 6800 was expensive. It was made using ‘contact lithography’, where the photomask, containing the image that is to created on the silicon die, comes into direct contact with the silicon wafer. This inevitably led, over time, to damage to the photomask, reducing yields and eventually rendering the expensive photomask unusable. Making a low-cost version of the 6800 would be impossible without a more cost-effective manufacturing process.”</i><p>Reading <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_lithography" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_lithography</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanoimprint_lithography" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanoimprint_lithography</a>, that problem doesn’t seem to have been solved, but of course, it’s possible that the lower cost more than compensates for it.
Nanoimprint lithography semiconductor manufacturing system that covers diverse applications with simple patterning mechanism<p><a href="https://global.canon/en/news/2023/20231013.html" rel="nofollow">https://global.canon/en/news/2023/20231013.html</a><p>Canon Says New ‘Stamp’ Machine Will Slash Chipmaking Costs – FT<p><a href="https://www.asiafinancial.com/canon-says-new-stamp-machine-will-make-chipmaking-cheaper-ft" rel="nofollow">https://www.asiafinancial.com/canon-says-new-stamp-machine-w...</a>
Makes sense<p>While everybody is looking at the SOTA factories, manufacturing is still constrained at the bigger nodes, and bringing the cost down at older processes looks like a worthy goal
Here's a write-up of the actual technology used - the video is worth a watch!<p><a href="https://global.canon/en/technology/nil-2023.html" rel="nofollow">https://global.canon/en/technology/nil-2023.html</a>
Canon stock is basically unchanged and is underperforming the SP500 slightly on the 1Y, is the market wrong or is this not going to do anything? One would think disrupting chipmaking would be more reflected in the stock price.
"One hope of analysts had been that Canon might be able to sell the machines to China, something ASML can no longer do with its advanced tools due to US export controls."<p>So this is the competitive advantage.