$10M says we won't see human-superior AGI by the end of 2025

The bar is this:<p>&quot;...whatever smart intellectual labor any human working on their own, even the best human in a given domain, can do will be beaten by Al by end of 2025. That is what I am challenging.&quot;<p>I don&#x27;t see ML models doing superhuman science in a year and half so I would take that bet. They can&#x27;t even write better prose than the best humans, and language models are their strong suit.

Generously, Musk has never been serious about making predictions. When he says stuff like this he just means he&#x27;s excited about it.

To be fair, I&#x27;ve never met a human as knowledgeable as ChatGPT before but I&#x27;ve simultaneously never met a human as dumb as ChatGPT before.

I too would like to get paid for having to read whatever stuff the Twitter guy posts online that somehow ends up being displayed as news

There will never be a human-superior AGI until we agree on what that means.<p>For at least 80 years that has changed weekly and continues to do so.<p>.

Yeah but what about by 2035? What&#x27;s the saying? Something like &quot;people overestimate how much will change in 5 years but underestimate how much will change in 10&quot;