At some point isn't it natural for people to just hold on to the phones they already have ?<p>I probably average a new phone ever 18 months or so, but I'm a tech enthusiast. No normal person needs a new phone that often. At a point you saturate your market.
This should be expected in times of increased inflation: prices for goods are increasing faster than wages, so most people have less disposable income.<p>They'll respond by cutting back on or deferring unnecessary expenses (like upgrading an existing working phone), or choosing cheaper goods (like replacing a broken phone with a cheaper one), especially if as the article says there's not much in the way of compelling new features to drive an upgrade cycle.
They can pry my iPhone Mini from my cold, dead hands.<p>I mean, what reason do I have to upgrade, even if I wanted a phone the size of a skateboard? Better camera? Eh...I'm trying really hard make that a reason to layout $800, but I'm failing. Faster chip? My phone isn't slow the way it is now. I don't do iOS work anymore, so there goes that excuse for an upgrade. And let's face it: the novelty of smartphones has worn off. The iPhone was released seventeen years ago. It's not awesome new tech, it's the appliance that I carry around so that $PEOPLE_IMPORTANT_TO_ME can get hold of me, and I can check the weather. I'm otherwise about as excited about a new one as I am about a new washer. (Well, probably <i>less</i> excited, because our new washer/dryer all-in-one is awesome.)<p>A top-level comment says battery. When Apple will no longer plop a new battery in my Mini for $80, I guess <i>that's</i> when I'll upgrade. Or Apple could, you know, make another Mini.
Helps explain why Apple has focused so much energy on fighting the DMA in Europe. Fewer iPhones sold means less H/W + App Store revenue. Alternative app stores on top of that could mean very bad news for advertising revenue on the main app store.
Maybe this will force Apple to be innovative. Or maybe they'll just increase service pricing and gradually cut features and material costs in an attempt to keep both margins and revenue high. My bet with Tim Cook is unfortunately the latter.
Growth at this scale is irrational expectation. They already have taken over almost 80~90% of the high margin smartphone market which is already saturated a few years ago. This is why Apple is taking so passive-aggressive stance on antitrust regulations as well as expanding into the ads business; there's simply not enough room for growth in the hardware segment while many investors are still expecting 5~10% perpetual annual growth.