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The world has probably passed peak pollution

278 pointsby robertn702about 1 year ago

25 comments

illiac786about 1 year ago
I find this title highly misleading “peak emission” would be much more accurate.<p>“Peak pollution” sounds like the amount of pollution in the environment will actually _decrease_ going forward.<p>That is simply not true, it will continue to increase, just slightly less fast.<p>Sorry if I don’t feel euphoric right now.
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hi-v-rocknrollabout 1 year ago
Recently launched MethaneSAT locates anthropogenic ultra-emitter methane plumes to their sources. CH₄ GWP is ~70 in 20 years.<p><i>Satellite images show biggest methane leaks come from Russia and US (2022)</i><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;eYig4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;eYig4</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.iea.org&#x2F;reports&#x2F;global-methane-tracker-2022&#x2F;overview" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.iea.org&#x2F;reports&#x2F;global-methane-tracker-2022&#x2F;over...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabo...</a> (2022, 400k t)<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Aliso_Canyon_gas_leak" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Aliso_Canyon_gas_leak</a> (2015-2016, 100k t)
Animatsabout 1 year ago
That&#x27;s encouraging.<p>- Peak pollution - check.<p>- Peak coal - not yet.<p>- Peak oil - maybe 2019, but aftermath of COVID affects numbers.[1]<p>- Peak baby - 2013. [2]<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.resilience.org&#x2F;stories&#x2F;2023-04-19&#x2F;the-status-of-global-oil-production-2023-update&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.resilience.org&#x2F;stories&#x2F;2023-04-19&#x2F;the-status-of-...</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thenewdaily.com.au&#x2F;life&#x2F;2022&#x2F;11&#x2F;12&#x2F;the-stats-guy-peak-baby" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thenewdaily.com.au&#x2F;life&#x2F;2022&#x2F;11&#x2F;12&#x2F;the-stats-guy...</a>
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jerezeabout 1 year ago
Well, such an optimistic title, considering that greenhouse gases are excluded in the article.
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benatkinabout 1 year ago
Many will regret being distracted by the world&#x27;s problems when they could have been building their lives. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=gxYt--CFXK0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=gxYt--CFXK0</a><p>&gt; Looking back, my only Berklee classmates that got successful were the ones who were fiercely focused, determined, and undistractable.<p>&gt; While you’re here, presidents will change, the world will change, and the media will try to convince you how important it all is.<p>&gt; But it’s not. None of it matters to you now.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sive.rs&#x2F;berklee" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sive.rs&#x2F;berklee</a>
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hehdhdjehehegwvabout 1 year ago
The good news is you’ve taken your foot off the gas. The bad news is the car is going 100mph and there is a cliff edge in 10 feet.
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tim333about 1 year ago
Peaking nitrogen oxides has made quite a difference for me personally living near Oxford Street. A decade ago it had some of the highest NO2 levels in the world and I was getting stinging eyes and thinking of moving. It&#x27;s quite a lot better now mostly down to the vehicles having less polluting power sources.
bamboozledabout 1 year ago
Positive on the one hand, stupid it took us this long on the other.
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rifficabout 1 year ago
we still got forever chemicals, industrial accidents, radiation, and microplastics to keep us company for a while yay.<p>edit: how can I leave out space junk, that&#x27;s always been my fav.
ISLabout 1 year ago
We may not yet have had the war that ends all wars.<p>Whenever I think about protecting the environment, I think about preventing the catastrophes that are wars.
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benreesmanabout 1 year ago
If economic and political capture fail to destroy civilization before climate change does I’ll be glad because we have science for the latter but not the former.<p>Science almost always gives you a fighting chance but there seems to be no motivation let alone research directions on unchecked income inequality.<p>I’m from the United States, a very wealthy country if you use the arithmetic mean to calculate prosperity (which is the devil’s own summary statistic in such matters), but children live in tent encampments even in ostensibly wealthy cities and it goes downhill from there.<p>I <i>hope</i> climate damage becomes a relevant problem because we have ideas for how to tackle that, arguably even credible plans.<p>Income inequality is utterly unchecked and will wreck civilization sooner.
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methuselah_inabout 1 year ago
With humans burning and producing waste can nothing be like peak. They will keep on going. I don&#x27;t understand why people don&#x27;t understand it&#x27;s human nature until you don&#x27;t stop them with fines you squeeze the availability of the fossils, they will keep on going on. What soul awakening scientists expects is possible only in few. Govt have to push people with policies and shift their behaviour.
bionhowardabout 1 year ago
Tell that to the toolbags who leave their truck idling while they use multiple gas powered lawnmowers, trimmers, leaf blowers!
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greentxtabout 1 year ago
Reminds me of Fukuyama, and yes I know he wasn’t saying that exactly.<p>Pretty sure this is not true as long as birth rates are declining. What is that saying about assumptions…
selimthegrimabout 1 year ago
I just got Hannah Ritchie’s book out of the library yesterday and I was like oh I think I know where this is from.
hpeterabout 1 year ago
I emit less methane than a few years ago, since I changed my diet. No gluten and lactose.
nininininoabout 1 year ago
Peak pollution (that we&#x27;re aware of).<p>Given the modus operandi of &quot;manufacture first, find out about carcinogenic &#x2F; animal-extinction-properties second&quot;, it&#x27;s almost certainly a given that we&#x27;ve not yet passed peak pollution because we keep creating new forms of pollution that are harder and harder to clean up.
faeriechanglingabout 1 year ago
The population still hasn&#x27;t peaked so I&#x27;m doubtful.
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gavin_geeabout 1 year ago
Perhaps the planet but definitely not the mind.
idunnoman1222about 1 year ago
Really do forever chemicals go away or something? or do they mean the peak output of pollutants because that’s not the same thing at all.
atleastoptimalabout 1 year ago
Now it’s time to bring pollution back. Without sulfur dioxide warming will accelerate. As many people pointed out it had been accidentally load bearing on warming
jmakovabout 1 year ago
Probably not. Nice try
nostrademonsabout 1 year ago
It&#x27;s interesting to revisit the Limits to Growth study [1] in light of these recently-declining exponential curves. Somebody did [2] and found that we&#x27;re basically on track for the model&#x27;s bleak predictions.<p>But the <i>way</i> that the model&#x27;s predictions have come true is different than what&#x27;s been popularized. Instead of mass die-offs from famine and pollution, we&#x27;re seeing population collapse because of birth control, declining fertility, and the rising (opportunity) cost of raising a family. Instead of seeing a collapse in industrial output because of declining resources, we&#x27;re seeing a collapse in industrial output because of market saturation and a shift toward services and online experiences. Instead of pollution growing unbounded, it&#x27;s actually declining because of green technology and de-industrialization.<p>The world is still trending toward a dystopian hellscape, but the dystopian hellscape is not a barren planet where nothing grows and we&#x27;ve stripped everything bare, it&#x27;s a dystopian hellscape of everybody glued to their device and ignoring social interaction or family formation because Fortnite is more interesting.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Limits_to_Growth" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Limits_to_Growth</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.vice.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;article&#x2F;z3xw3x&#x2F;new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.vice.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;article&#x2F;z3xw3x&#x2F;new-research-vindicat...</a>
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unnouinceputabout 1 year ago
2B humans out of 8B are in China. You do not have numbers for China nor, if you manage to get it, can those be trusted anyway. I feel that while the West started the downtrend, China will not offset that but surely pass as how much pollutants it spews. We are not out of the woods until China gets on board too.
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Dibby053about 1 year ago
I&#x27;m skeptic.<p>United States. Population: 335M. Vehicles: 305M.<p>Germany. Population: 85M. Vehicles: 52M.<p>India. Population: 1428M. Vehicles: 79M.<p>China. Population: 1400M. Vehicles: 500M.<p>Ethiopia. Population: 121M. Vehicles: 1.2M.<p>Nigeria. Population: 230M. Vehicles: 13M.<p>Indonesia. Population: 279M. Vehicles: 23M.<p>etc.