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What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came? (2023)

183 pointsby AndrewDucker12 months ago

20 comments

throwup23812 months ago
I think there’s one flaw in the overall theory presented in the article: it was demand for coal for heating independent of the industrial revolution that really kickstarted things and the labor exploited for coal mining was the lowest of the socioeconomic classes. Before the industrial revolution England was already mining around five times more coal than the rest of the world <i>combined</i> just to survive winters. Once they exhausted the easy surface deposits they had to go deeper and deeper which required mechanized power to work against the water seeping in. The first engines were invented not when labor became too expensive but when it was impossible to do with human labor at all.<p>After reading <i>Coal - A Human History</i> I’m of the opinion that the industrial revolution was a complete accident of circumstance on a tiny island that didn’t have enough trees to support its population’s energy needs and a surface supply of coal just big enough to get the industry started but not enough to supply the growing population without digging deeper.
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kaycebasques12 months ago
Tangential: the cover of Allen&#x27;s book uses the exact same painting as Vaclav Smil&#x27;s <i>Energy and Civilization</i>?? I&#x27;m reading too much into this but that seems a bit suspect and lazy... And yes I judge books by their covers; it is actually a fairly reliable heuristic for me (edit: but in this case the heuristic would fail me because this book sounds excellent)<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mit-press-us.imgix.net&#x2F;covers&#x2F;9780262536165.jpg?auto=format&amp;w=198&amp;dpr=3&amp;q=80" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mit-press-us.imgix.net&#x2F;covers&#x2F;9780262536165.jpg?auto...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.media-amazon.com&#x2F;images&#x2F;I&#x2F;41gNLyXI-BL.jpg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;m.media-amazon.com&#x2F;images&#x2F;I&#x2F;41gNLyXI-BL.jpg</a><p>Also check out MIT Press using imgix for their image server!)
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throwaway2203212 months ago
It strikes me that if you have different classes of people working on a problem then it doesn&#x27;t necessarily matter what&#x27;s more efficient on a per-person basis initially because some people will not be doing the work anyway.<p>For example, buying a power sander for 10 hours labour cost when you could just have sanded the table down in less than 10 hours manually.<p>It&#x27;s not like there were infinite quantities of slaves or lower class workers, at some point someone is going to explore the idea of automation purely out of interest.<p>For what it&#x27;s worth this is why I believe that inequality and some level of wealth at the top is useful and necessary. You want a class of people who can just sort of mess about as they see fit. Otherwise everyone is just scrambling to meet basic needs.
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openrisk12 months ago
What if they gave a digital revolution and nobody came?<p>Interesting mental exercise to put ourselves 50 years into the future and examine who, why and to what effect adopted what kind of digital technology...
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cm218712 months ago
The (Roman I presume) emperor in the ancient world would have bitten their arm off to get the industrial revolution. Famines were still a regular occurrence, and Rome heavily depended on the food supply from Egypt. Anything that could have increased crop yields (and agriculture was still thought as the most important industry and form of wealth) would have had massive political impact.
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verisimi12 months ago
Surely the biggest factor would be the use of force. From acts of enclosure (where common land was stolen by the local upper classes), to the destruction of local crafts as with the Luddites. Once you destroy the local &#x27;lifestyle&#x27; businesses, you force thousands off the land to become cheap labour. Or be subjected to the poor houses.<p>Force upon force - this is government, the state.
rhelz12 months ago
Curios claim in the article:<p>&gt; High wages come from high productivity,<p>which, I think is patently false. Wages are set by supply and demand, same as anything else. High wages incent increases in productivity, not the other way around.<p>Why were wages <i>not</i> at substance levels in Briton on the eve of the industrial revolution? What drove up the demand for workers?
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dan_mctree12 months ago
I&#x27;d like to recommend the author mentioned briefly in the article on this topic: Joel Mokyr. Unlike how this article paints him, Joel doesn&#x27;t really point to a sole cause for the industrial revolution, but highlights a broad range of contributing factors, I thought it was very insightful.<p>While it&#x27;s certainly not the only cause, high wages as a contributing factor to innovation in productivity does still seem like a plausible factor behind the industrial revolution. I suspect that these days in the west, labor is relatively so cheap compared to how much capital is around, that capital ends up being rather inefficiently used. Or at least, capital doesn&#x27;t primarily go to production increases anymore. Perhaps there&#x27;s avenues for gains here today
christkv12 months ago
I think easy access to lots of smaller waterways with natural fall and little chance of massive flooding was an important factor for why Britain was able to industrialize before the invention of the steam engine. If you look at where industry popped up in Britain you see water power as a major factor.<p>Now for the emperor sell him faster and cheaper sword production by making his blacksmiths more productive and you get industrialization as its specialized skills that can’t be easily scaled by throwing tons of bodies at it.
thriftwy12 months ago
The same may be told of our unwillingness to harness the solar system. Future dwellers would say we knew how to do this and simply did not want.
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paulorlando12 months ago
I wrote a short book on this topic, from a timing lens. That is, what needs to happen to see certain inventions become sustainable innovations. The business model piece is what&#x27;s often left out if you only think about new capabilities. Lots of examples to draw upon for this. If interested, the book is called Why Now: How Good Timing Makes Great Products.
goeiedaggoeie12 months ago
Didn&#x27;t the Malthusian cycle result in labour shortages continously? What about the roman empire (byzantanian) after plagues?
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dang12 months ago
Discussed at the time (of the article);<p><i>What if they gave an Industrial Revolution and nobody came?</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=35983290">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=35983290</a> - May 2023 (5 comments)
jongjong12 months ago
This is a great article and is useful for putting tech into perspective in a modern context.<p>The quote about the emperor not needing the steam engine because he already has slaves to do that work for free is an excellent one. It neatly demonstrates the role of technology as a tool for liberation. From the perspective of the emperors of past centuries, our modern world is, in many ways, worse than theirs. So of course the emperor would never approve of such technologies; even if you showed them a crystal ball and removed all the risk, they still wouldn&#x27;t want it.<p>There are parallels in the modern age. You don&#x27;t need an emperor to get the same effect. With our centrally controlled monetary system, there are strong Cantillion effects which cause wealth compounding; this creates an increasingly strong incentive for people to service the rich and an increasingly weak incentive to service the poor. So we are somewhat in a situation where those who have money in tech think &quot;Why do we need more efficient software tools? I have 10K software engineers on hand to build whatever the company needs. I have a market monopoly so their wages are peanuts to me... The money comes in regardless of development efficiency or improved security. We don&#x27;t need more efficient tools... Why? So that my small competitors can build software at the same speed as me with only 1% of the engineering capacity? Why would I want such tool to exist?&quot;<p>But with high inequality, liberation of the poor isn&#x27;t financially viable. So long as the poor are willing to engage in the current system, their living standards will keep declining, because nobody who is in a position to liberate them has an incentive to do so. There is no incentive to produce such technologies. There is little doubt that technologies have been used to further enslave people, rather than liberate them. This is why the woke&#x2F;DEI agenda is so horrible, it&#x27;s pure gaslighting. Preaching equality while implementing the least equal, least fair system ever designed in the history of mankind.
Sniffnoy12 months ago
One thing not discussed here: Coke had been used in China since ancient times. How does that fit into the discussion about coke here?
golergka12 months ago
Capitalism and real open markets for capital and labour were essential requirements for industrial revolution to take off. Roman Empire had some capitalist features, but most of the economy was run either by the state or oligarchs, and a large proportion as emperor himself. So, even if some invention offered real productivity gains, the stakeholders who had the power were much interested in conserving and increasing their share of the pie instead of growing the pie for everybody.
usrusr12 months ago
Surprised to see that long a text about the demand side of innovation without any mention of war as the mother of all invention. Seems to me almost like an elephant in the room nodding in puzzled agreement. Puzzled that strong demand side influence isn&#x27;t taken as a given.
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jjk16612 months ago
This article, like many, grossly oversimplifies the industrial revolution to the adoption of the steam engine and similar capital investments. Steam engines were not the industrial revolution, nor were they the cause. Most of these technologies were evolutionary improvements on other technologies that predated the industrial revolution, and the industrial revolution began before their wide adoption. The industrial revolution enabled steam engines, bessemer furnaces, automated looms, and other such technologies, not the other way around.<p>The industrial revolution is really a series of several major upheavals in life which occurred in discreet stages across a rather long time period. You have the scientific revolution that leads to a steady stream of invention and, more critically, refinement which in turn allows machines and processes to be steadily improved over time instead of the haphazard slip-faults of earlier progress. You have the agricultural revolution which both enables massive population growth and frees up large portions of the population to live and work in urban centers. You had the development first of the cottage system, then the british factory system, and then the american factory system, which changed both how goods were produced and how society was structured. There is the metrology revolution which, while building off the scientific revolution, was really more of a political and economic change, and enabled the development of machine tools and economical precision parts. And you have the birth of modern economics and the rise of the capitalist class as a dominant element in society, which really made large capital investments viable. None of these things depended on the steam engine, most preceded the wide adoption of the steam engine. Likewise for the other technologies that typically come to mind when thinking of the time period.<p>The article also fundamentally mischaracterizes other time periods. The Romans were actually quite big on adopting new technologies that would save labor. They were an extremely pragmatic people, and they viewed their reliance on slave labor as undesirable. Especially in late antiquity after their conquests mostly stopped, and as they were frequently troubled by civil wars, labor was actually a major issue. They would have gladly adopted a working steam engine. The issue was that, being pragmatic, they weren&#x27;t big on developing technologies that didn&#x27;t have clear practical applications. The development of what would become Watt&#x27;s steam engine took roughly 200 years of people screwing around with what was essentially a toy, which they mostly did as a means of signalling to their peers that they were sufficiently wealthy that they could dilly-dally on nonsense. It wasn&#x27;t just the steam engine itself, important technical challenges like precision machining of bores all had to be figured out, it took a whole culture of people pursuing useless invention to make progress, as opposed to one or two hyper fixated polymaths. And even Watt&#x27;s steam engine wasn&#x27;t that good, it would be decades more before people started, for example, putting them on ships.<p>Next, while I&#x27;m sure the book has more, the data the article presents seems to be a very week evidence in support of its thesis. London wages, when normalized for prices, don&#x27;t jump relative to other nations until after 1825. At the normally accepted start date of 1750 for the industrial revolution (even though the groundwork was being laid long before this), London wages were typical for northern europe, lower than those in Amsterdam had been in the past several centuries, and they were falling. Prices for coal in London were typical; prices nearer the coal mines were low but there is no comparison made to other cities outside Britain that were near to coal production sites. For the wages to price of capital, the whole of England is compared to two cities which weren&#x27;t even particularly notable industrial centers when their respective nations first started to industrialize. The analysis of supply side factors seems much more focused on inventors than on the process of invention, which is inherently collaborative and multifaceted. It seems from the quotes at the end that the book is far more conservative in its claims, so perhaps this is sufficient, but again I feel it is ignoring a lot.<p>Finally, I am generally critical of any analysis that asks why the industrial revolution started in Britain, as opposed to elsewhere, and treats it as a unique, solitary data point. Obviously it can only happen for the first time once, but many nations have industrialized, and every time it has been a process spanning decades if not centuries, starting in some regions while reaching others later. While no doubt each example has its idiosyncrasies, for example there&#x27;s a world of difference between the industrialization of Meiji Japan and Communist China, there are nevertheless patterns that repeat. Any convincing theory as to why the industrial revolution started in Britain ought to predict how industrial revolutions begin and spread in general, or at least explain why it needs to be considered separately. I can&#x27;t really blame an english speaking historian for focusing on a region whose primary sources are all in english, but if you&#x27;re going to call something a global perspective, I expect more.
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Jensson12 months ago
&gt; for what? Merely to save labor. Our empire has plenty of labor; I personally own many slaves. Why waste precious iron and fuel in order to lighten the load of a slave?<p>This here is called central planning, yeah of course industrial revolution doesn&#x27;t happen under central planning made by people who have no clue. Capitalism solves this by distributing these decisions out to all the laborers, they decide what to make by deciding what to spend their money on and investors try to give them that.
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sed312 months ago
China around 1AD had iron production comparable to England at start of industrial revolution. They were also starting to use mechanization (quote from wiki bellow).<p>&gt; The effectiveness of the Chinese human and horse powered blast furnaces was enhanced during this period by the engineer Du Shi (c. AD 31), who applied the power of waterwheels to piston-bellows in forging cast iron.
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