I'm all for a serious discussion of the energy crisis, but this author is really pandering to the audience with his talk of the disappearance of "car society, suburban living, big box stores, corporate-run government, global empire, or runaway finance".<p>That's exactly what the kind of people who read Energy Bulletin want to hear.
So oil dropped almost by half since the article was written. I'm all for development of new energy sources, but just because my family's person-car ration is close to 1 doesn't mean the world will end if gas becomes expensive again.<p>I think I remember reading another article by this author where he somehow implied that Soviet Union's population was better prepared for financial collapse (due to resourcefulness or whatever). Having lived through that mess myself I disagree. That country had screwed up economy and when fit hit the shan everyone was out for himself and the country was pretty much torn apart and sold by pieces down to tools at factories and telephone wire.<p>Russia was back in stone age until oil prices picked up. Now they seem to be repeating the same mistake, according to the author, where their economy struggling once that very oil is so cheap.
The human brain, lacking infinite computational capacity, invents simplifying abstractions to understand the world. These abstractions increase the realm of human thought, but they also lead to errors when the simplification smooths out details that cause important differences between two events supposed to be of the same class.
He can't back up any of his assumptions (e.g. that oil is going to crash in the timeframe required for a "collapse"), but the last year or so of activity should suggest that something like this will probably happen on a smaller scale. As such it makes for a useful thought exercise.
Isn't it funny how conspiracy theorists always seem to lose the bigger picture. He compares the meltdown of a command economy that a had oppressed its own people for better part of a century with a recession i the US, arguably the worlds strongest economy.
You're all a little young I suspect to know about the infamous "Limits To Growth reports" conducted by MIT CS grads in the late sixties commissioned by the Club of Rome.<p>They constructed computer models of population growth expectations against energy resources, waste, production etc. They concluded that unless society changed its ways DRAMATICALLY then a collapse would occur which would be unavoidable and would wipe out a large percentage of the worlds population.<p>The reports were widely dismissed at the time by the main stream media and other 'experts' however, many of their predictions are manifesting before our eyes as we speak, if not a little latter than originally expected.<p>Those that decry that technology will save us (and it may well do but we do have to create it first) the main unavoidable problem is capitalism = exploitation = waste / population which is increasing because of the high level of fossil fuel energy available / ( which is rapidly diminishing).<p>If any bright sparks here have a solution to this mathematical problem then I will be impressed. The reason I personally got into programming was to try and make some impact on this problem. Yet all I see here (which I don't blame you for) is naive youngsters who are deluded and indoctranated into believing that success is starting a startup and exiting with 1M+ cash in the bank. To me this = FAIL.<p>Those that were really smart would have an understanding of the unavoidable mathematical problems really facing us (which are not written about in our favorite math books) and would have a broader knowledge than that spouted by your ivy league universities.<p>Those bright sparks would be able to demonstrate 1) an understanding of the problem, 2) a deep understanding of the math involved, 3) an interest in solving the problem, 4) the capacity to think outside of the box and not follow the herd, 5) ultimately a working theoretical alternative which would be more robust than the current math which is the algorithm behind current capitalism (or what ever you want to call it, democracy etc.).<p>For those that think capitalism and democracy is the best system we have, do not bother replying! Your comments will be as limited as your 'intellectual' capacity and you would be better served spending your time on your fab new startup!