Well, CA wines are, on the whole, ridiculously overpriced.<p>A lot of people moved in on that, making it not <i>entirely</i> unlikely that supply now outstrips demand?<p>Same thing happened in various regions in France at various points in time. The viable plots will be reclaimed at some point, and make some <i>fine</i> wines in the future, except possibly not at the price point the original owners had in mind...
California wines have had a poor price-to-quality ratio for many years when competing with ubiquitous wine imports from other countries. It is difficult to sell California wine when you can buy a better bottle from France for half the price. Outside of California, many restaurants preferentially serve European wine because the price disparities are so large, particularly for relative quality.<p>It benefitted from limited competition for a long time but that has not been the market reality for more than a decade.
I like how on side the growers are lamenting having to sell wine at less than 1$ a gallon and there is a lot of emphasis on "how exiting, less than 20$ per bottle!"<p>Bottle + cork + label can cost as low as 1-2$<p>Even at a median 5.5$ in 2022 for a gallon of wine that's still around 1$ of wine for bottle.<p>I think the price might be a problem.
This happens from time to time everywhere, here is an article from my country 15 years ago [1]. I think I hear about a grape glut at least every 5 years or so in New Zealand and Australia.<p>Consumer habits change, producers are understandably cautious to react. Eventually they figure out what the market wants, or find new markets.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/2664945/Grape-glut-hits-winegrowers" rel="nofollow">https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/2664945/Grape-glut-hits-w...</a>
Feel free to flood the Canadian market. In my province the cheapest low quality bottle of wine anywhere is still $13+.<p>Though I’m assuming 60% of the price is tax because this country is a circus.
TLDR: Americans are drinking less wine overall, especially on the low to mid market side, and small producers have been hit the hardest. People have been likely switching to things like hard seltzers and other alternatives. "Millennials are killing the wine industry" is more like "millennials are choosing less wine and higher end things when they do." Mid to high end market is doing find.<p>Sonoma is definitely slow right now, and Napa has less foot traffic.