This is no surprise.<p>We had a major surge in violent crime associated with COVID. Which makes sense - COVID was very stressful for all of this, and stressed out people act out in a variety of ways. Now that the stress is better, crime is dropping back to where it was headed before.
> Why it matters: The drop in violent crime puts a serious dent in one of the most frequently used lines of attack by former President Trump and his allies, who have sought to tie Democrats to the issue since 2020.<p>Maybe I'm missing the context of this publication/author as something focused specifically on electoral politics, but I find it strange that a dramatic drop in "homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault" in many cities "matters" according to this author, only because of its implications for the upcoming presidential election.
Here's the actual article for anyone else getting hit by axios' badly configured (or default) cloudflare MITM: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240812111827/https://www.axios.com/2024/08/12/violent-crime-harris-trump-election" rel="nofollow">https://web.archive.org/web/20240812111827/https://www.axios...</a>
Garbage data analysis, reporting the statistical rebound from a statistically anomalous period (covid) as if it's some kind of trend. To the article's credit, they make no effort to hide their political motives behind misinforming their audience.
Trump, like many other populists, are not speaking to urban city dwellers when it comes to these topics. He's aiming his speech at the rural population. The idea is of course to keep them scared, and keep them away from the cities.<p>This is not only a US thing. I grew up in rural nowhere, and frequently see (unfortunately older) people from back home write the craziest posts about the things that are "happening" in big cities.<p>Some of them are so afraid that they simply won't visit those places - in fear that they'll get mugged, stabbed, or raped by some psychotic foreigner or gang member.<p>They get all their news from the same far-right FB pages and "news" websites that only write about crime.
> Why it matters: The drop in violent crime puts a serious dent in one of the most frequently used lines of attack by former President Trump and his allies, who have sought to tie Democrats to the issue since 2020.<p>I imagine in a few years there will be reports of police departments and various reporting agencies to "not report that" and the order "comes from the top".
My state can't find police officers. Being a police officer used to be a highly coveted role, even in the city, despite the risks. Applications to the state and local academies are down 80%, and there aren't enough people coming into the system (even if all of them <i>pass</i>) to replace those leaving it.<p>Axios has shown its anti-Trump bias in the past. I'm going to take this report with a huge grain of salt.<p>I live in a tier 1 suburb, and we have seen crime skyrocket this summer, mostly petty theft, but people seem to be getting desperate (stealing dogs and "rehoming" them is becoming very common), and the crime is coming deep into more affluent areas. Is crime lower compared to the first 6 months in 23 because of the Kia thefts? How does this compare to 22/21, etc?
"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it". —Jeff Bezos <<a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-212315127.html" rel="nofollow">https://sports.yahoo.com/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-explains-2123...</a>>