Note that this is still a preliminary revision.<p>The first estimate is “based on a monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites” [1]. While this is fast, “many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data.”<p>The second estimate, this one, incorporates “state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file” [2].<p>These data keep getting updated as survey figures come in, all the way to tax filings the following year. Because the easiest response—to a survey or for filings—is “no change,”
the employers making the most changes, whether hiring or firing, respond and file the latest. That makes the figures lagging. When the economy is booming, the numbers are revised up. When it’s falling, down.<p>Those who can read the data know this is natural, given the methodology. Those who cannot see conspiracy in a cover-up (when numbers are revised down) or the deep state not giving their team credit (when up).<p>[1] <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm" rel="nofollow">https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numb...</a><p>[2] <a href="https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revision.htm" rel="nofollow">https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchm...</a>
Imo the us desperately needs to break up large monopolies and reestablish or increase free market competition.<p>It increases innovation, increases jobs, increases labor movement, and decreases inflation.<p>I'm of the opinion that a great deal of the last round of inflation was companies realizing their cartel power to set high prices because meaningful competition is so rare.<p>We like will be onshoring or near shoring more production in the coming decades and large cartel powers are less likely to do so because of sunk costs.<p>... It won't happen though.
[dupe]<p>News from 2 days ago, discussion: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41311519">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41311519</a>