Author here - amazing how this old post comes back around! I know this book is a bit divisive with the big time jump, but you can't argue with the opening line.<p>Shameless plug - I've become a better engineer since then, and if you'd like to work with me check out this role I'm hiring for:<p><a href="https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/count/d49bdc38-96ea-4dbd-9ab5-ae4f5d17090c">https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/count/d49bdc38-96ea-4dbd-9ab5-ae4f5...</a>
I find most interesting about Seveneves is how the technological assumptions have changed since the book predates the first landing of a falcon 9 booster stage. Getting the tin cans into orbit is described as using traditional use-once rockets. Assuming that you can reuse the first stage 20 times alone would enormously scale up the avaible cargo and m³ you can get into orbit since the upper stages would need not nearly as many rocket engines (and those would be the limiting factor in onstruction really).<p>if you could get a starship booster to work with similar reliability you could put up about 2-3 times the m³ of the ISS with each launch (assuming a wet-workshop design for he upper stage where the empty fuel tanks are prepared to be made habitable).<p>assuming an "ISS" can host 10 people that means for 20k people in orbit you need 50 boosters launch 20 times each for a total of 1k launches. This is a very small amount for a larger country like the US on a war economy considering that the upper stages would be the somewhat easier to construct parts.<p>I would assume that basically every industralized country on earth put up at least as many.
Link to the simulation code: <a href="https://github.com/jasmcole/Blog">https://github.com/jasmcole/Blog</a><p>And if you haven't read Seveneves yet, it's definitely a Neal Stephenson book and will not disappoint.
There's a recent (2022) game called Ixion with an exploding moon premise. I initially saw it promo'd during a Steam sale, didn't buy it based on some <i>very</i> critical reviews regarding gameplay, and then forgot about it until seeing it mentioned in the 1d6chan Grimdark article.<p>I spoiled as much as I could short of playing the game, and then skipped through a full play-through on Youtube.<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvPyoPRgrFQ" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvPyoPRgrFQ</a> is a good synopsis (full game spoilers). The main writer did an AMA on Reddit with some questions answered, but also made it clear that some things were simply unfinished, or just left up to interpretation.
Seveneves is my favourite book, it’s excellent and, unlike most people, not only do I like the last third it’s actually my favourite part. The world building, the reimagining, the what-if is incredible to me.<p>If you don’t like the last third of Seveneves and haven’t read Anathem then you’ll struggle with the first 150 pages of that book. It’s like Seveneves flipped, starts mega slow and turns into an action fantasy book.
> Possible fragmentation of bodies – in this case one of the masses breaks into 2 equally-sized pieces, which fly off into different directions.<p>This is the stuff I have a huge question mark about in my head. If two pieces that move very slowly relative to another collide and fragment, why should the pieces fly of in arbitrary different directions and not continue on their trajectory?<p>So, gravitational pull increases the velocity of bodies relative to another. That's already an exchange of energy, the piece ahead gets slowed down, the piece behind will speed up. Then they collide, exchanging the energy difference again, speeding up the piece ahead and slowing down the one behind. The relative speeds will be tiny initially, because the distances are small, so fragmentation is unlikely. Where does that process run off?
I really couldn’t enjoy this book because the biotech stuff was so stupid… Stephenson is usually spot on with his hard scifi, but in this case I think he trusted some friends to advise him, and they didn’t know as much biology as he thought they did.
I recall when the book originally came out a lot of people said the scenario was implausible, so I have questions:<p>* If you’ve only simulated 1000 pieces, what is the likelihood they just don’t hit each other? (Space is pretty big.)<p>* How big does a chunk have to be to not burn up on hitting the atmosphere? (This energy would obviously go somewhere, just not necessarily into impact.)<p>* How and when does the moon reform?
Somewhat related video by "Kurzgesagt - In a Nutshell"
"What Happens if the Moon Crashes into Earth"
<a href="https://youtu.be/lheapd7bgLA" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/lheapd7bgLA</a>