On one hand, yes you should be skeptical of industry reports.<p>On the other hand, just looking at year-over-year shoplifting numbers wouldn't reflect increasing prevention cost - like hiring more security, putting more items in cases, or closing down stores.
Companies like Walgreens and Duane Reade have been battling shrinkage for a long time. So either someone is blowing up the numbers internally, making the problem bigger than it actually is, leading retailers no choice but to undertake draconian security measures, or the numbers are accurate and retailers are responding to a legitimate threat that is being downplayed. Which is it?