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Satellite powered estimation of global solar potential

265 pointsby jonbaer5 months ago

21 comments

tppiotrowski5 months ago
As someone who has researched DSM availability across the globe, Google&#x27;s Solar API is a top contender. Other option is government LiDAR surveys but the coverage, file formats, projections, etc are all fragmented. I think it would be great for the mapping community to create a world wide DSM map tile dataset similar to the ground elevation tile dataset that contour lines and 3D terrain views are generated from. Maybe someone is already working on this?<p>In the article they show areas where their approach can generate DSM although this is just the potential areas and not the areas where data is already available. :(
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xnx5 months ago
This is a very impressive refinement of their existing tool, but is this type of advanced calculation of roof-pitch (etc.) still relevant?<p>Haven&#x27;t we more or less concluded that a million piecemeal rooftop installations of solar are about the worst way to do it? More complicated and expensive to permit and install, less efficient operation, difficult to repair, difficult to insure, difficult to upgrade, inefficient to integrate into grid, etc.
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pyaamb5 months ago
This is really incredible. If they could plug in local utility prices and come up with estimate for dollars saved per year, that would be an incredible conversation starter for homeowners who might not have considered taking on a home solar project otherwise.
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jeffbee5 months ago
The image processing described is very cool, but I have questions about the application. Google started doing these solar potential estimates about 10 years ago, so let&#x27;s imagine that they have been developing the capability since about 2010 or so. In that time the cost of PV has fallen by an order of magnitude. Hasn&#x27;t that settled the question of where PV should be installed? I thought the answer is now &quot;yes&quot; everywhere.
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looofooo05 months ago
I am sceptical about putting PV on roofs, seems a lot of hassle and waymore expensive then using just flatground: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Bhadla_Solar_Park" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Bhadla_Solar_Park</a> Any additional money spent on it, could have helped to install more PV or batteries.
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buckle80175 months ago
Estimate for a house in SF with a typical roof and typical electric bill.<p>$20k upfront cost.<p>$4k in savings over 20 years.<p>That&#x27;s an implied rate of return of 0.9% annually.<p>No thanks.
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myroon55 months ago
Related:<p><i>Global Solar Power Potential Map</i> - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=40303570">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=40303570</a> - May 2024
barbegal5 months ago
An interesting use for satellite in future will be accurate estimation of solar power output in the very near future e.g. in the next hour period such that grid operators can adjust storage and demand to get a balanced grid. At the moment we can&#x27;t do these predictions as we don&#x27;t know where solar panels are in relation to any passing clouds.
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mlsu5 months ago
This is fine and all, but each individual having a solar panel introduces a lot of issues.<p>Your energy bill is about 1&#x2F;4 or 1&#x2F;3rd distribution. As you take less power from the grid because of the solar on your roof, that proportion grows larger and larger.<p>At the same time, the power company makes less money off of you, because you are using less power. Therefore, they have less money to invest in distribution, which means they must increase distribution fees further to stay a going concern. This is to say nothing of the ballooning costs of distribution in general (nimbyism, permitting fees, can&#x27;t build jack shit in this country for no good reason etc.).<p>Therefore: in the hypothetical where everyone has solar rooftops, we all effectively pay the grid operator <i>only</i> for dirty&#x2F;offpeak power. This makes the grid operators look bad to everyone (they&#x27;re using dirty power, aren&#x27;t we trying to fight climate change!? Why is my electricity bill astronomical, even though I only use a tiny bit of power!?) and puts them in an impossible situation -- they&#x27;re stuck between capped profits, creating expensive clean power at off-peak hours, and limited cash in general, since their expensive power plants are dormant half the time. Yet they still must deliver power to their customers, 24&#x2F;7.<p>People have to have 24&#x2F;7 electricity, even though the solar on their house does not cover them 24&#x2F;7. It&#x27;s illegal to sell a house that is not connected to the grid in most areas. Therefore, consumers must pay for the <i>option</i> of using electricity in off-peak hours. Everyone will be upset. The grid operator, who is constantly thrashed by politicians who insist on their using clean power, their customers who are enraged at them for the seemingly exorbitant electric bills (which are mostly distribution).<p>The upside is that the grid is more resilient, but as others have mentioned, only if significant investments in local distribution are made (i.e. the ability to very dynamically&#x2F;granularly pump power back up, from house to grid). Which is a big capital investment that the grid operators will not be able to afford.<p>All this is downstream of the fact that it is hugely inefficient to put a ton of tiny solar panels all over the place, where they cannot be installed, cleaned, maintained, replaced cheaply. It&#x27;s just way less expensive per watt to put a bunch of solar panels in one spot on cheap land in the desert and pipe it through the existing distribution network.<p>Everyone <i>will</i> pay for that resilience, in their electric bill, one way or another.
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ben_w5 months ago
Nice to see, I hope it helps people get more cheap energy.<p>All I have are nits to pick:<p>&gt; 10.7k TWh globally<p>This brings back memories of the time I almost shortened &quot;thousand kilometres&quot; to &quot;kkm&quot;.<p>Also, and this is not a criticism of Google, the IEA link on that text looks suspiciously like the IEA is still forecasting linear deployment of PV between 2025 and 2035, despite at least a decade of people pointing at it being historically exponential and asking why they don&#x27;t assume the exponent will continue — I&#x27;m expecting about double their number for PV by 2035, if trends continue.
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janitorHenry5 months ago
Builders: optimize energy capture, put roof planes directed south (in northern hemisphere).
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navaed015 months ago
This is a very neat exercise but I don’t think it’s going to create change. These models already exist and I’ve never met anyone who said their reason for not investing in solar is because they felt the accuracy of existing models is not good enough. I say this as someone who lives on a part of the world where a large % of the inhabitants could have solar but do not - and I find it sad, frustrating and puzzling.<p>Biggest blockers for solar are (total conjecture) : 1- Inertia - flat out. 2- Long-term ROI is not totally clear - How long till I need to replace, roof damage, ability to hold up in storm. 3- Cost - You need to invest sig $ to see your electric bill decrease meaningfully. Gov subsidies are nowhere near where they should be.<p>I am praying for a major breakthrough in cell efficiency to make it a no brainer. Does anyone have any insight on that?
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srameshc5 months ago
There was a startup that was doing something similar, can&#x27;t find it but their entire business was built on providing similar service.
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neves5 months ago
Unfortunately the beta is available just for enterprises. I&#x27;d love to run it for my house.
sanj5 months ago
I had the privilege of working with the heart and soul of this solar rooftop work.<p>Carl is a mensch.<p>He&#x27;s also the brilliance behind <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.google&#x2F;technology&#x2F;ai&#x2F;ai-airlines-contrails-climate-change&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.google&#x2F;technology&#x2F;ai&#x2F;ai-airlines-contrails-clim...</a>
hndude5 months ago
related: NSRDB (Nat&#x27;l Solar Radiation Database) Viewer from the National Renewable Energy Lab - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nsrdb.nrel.gov&#x2F;data-viewer" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nsrdb.nrel.gov&#x2F;data-viewer</a>
bokohut5 months ago
I used an early version of the PV roof tool in 2020 for my own PV roof design. The front of my rectangle shaped home faces exactly North and therefore all sides are respective to exactly E&#x2F;W&#x2F;S. Given my professional experiences and knowledge awareness of photons I therefore opted to cover my entire roof in PV collecting technology and not just what faces direct sunlight, if one can see outside during daylight hours then the PV is functioning. Case in point, right now it is currently very cloudy and rainy here in the NE,USA and the roof is still generating 700 watts while my home&#x27;s base load demand of 400 watts has the overage of 300 watts going to batteries. I have had this system for 3 years now and my choice to have such a system proved itself in our first outage when everyone else was panicking in the dark for hours. I sat relaxed and watched others in great stress and anxiety planning on how to preserve their refrig&#x2F;freezers while visually panicking over their sump pumps not running in their basements. PV with a battery is a quality of life choice that directly impacts one&#x27;s health and what price do you put on your health? I will also share with such sites that the energy and cost saving estimates are very much often wrong since the energy data is generalized for everyone and energy use per person significantly varies, some estimates are laughable to only me since I have my families own <i>real world</i> data for the last decade. I have also tracked our entire resource consumption at home for nearly a decade now, yes I am a data nerd to the extremes, and not only does such a solution save one GREAT stress and anxiety when it matters most but it also greatly reduces variable financial expenses and can also make one revenue.<p>Proactive versus reactive : The data doesn&#x27;t lie, people do.<p>Stay Healthy!
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bensandcastle5 months ago
marginally relevant. space based dawn dusk LEO solar infra is the answer. vastly more power than we&#x27;ll ever get on the surface of this rock and then onto Sol.
4b11b45 months ago
This is where Google much more than<p>- GCP vs AWS<p>- Gemini vs ChatGPT<p>etc
unit1495 months ago
Querying overhead nadir satellite imagery - captured at a vertical angle relative to its spatial position - and feeding it into Geo Deepmind&#x27;s ML program gives us roof-segmentation data. Ostensibly, annual flux prediction imagery in the global south, after being ran in Google&#x27;s Solar API gives us some enhanced DSM-RGB imagery.
HocusLocus5 months ago
&quot;We lose a little on each transaction, but make up for it in volume.&quot;