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Who would have won the Simon-Ehrlich bet over different decades?

76 pointsby sien5 months ago

12 comments

olalonde5 months ago
Not Paul Ehrlich&#x27;s worse prediction. His most infamous was that &quot;hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death&quot; in the 1970s[0]. It’s curious how he managed to remain influential despite a track record of such inaccurate forecasts.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Paul_R._Ehrlich#The_Population_Bomb_(1968)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Paul_R._Ehrlich#The_Population...</a>
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glaucon5 months ago
| If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000<p>I would love to know what it was about England that meant it&#x27;s end was nigh, I mean what about France, Norway or Belgium ?<p>Also, when he said &quot;England&quot; was he actually referring to the United Kingdom (as Americans often are) or were Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland going to be spared in some way ?
bleuchase5 months ago
Good article. I look forward to the day when Ehrlich’s bad ideas are no longer en vogue.
braiamp5 months ago
Interesting that many people take this as a further prof that Ehrlich was wrong, when actually he was unlucky. This &quot;bet&quot; doesn&#x27;t further our understanding of how anything works, and the article probably should drive the point across more forcefully. The bet itself is useless to tell us anything about &quot;the long run&quot;. In the &quot;long run&quot; everyone is dead, so your lifetime isn&#x27;t enough to predict a trend. You could have seen all your life an indicator heading in one direction, die, getting revived 200 years later, and the trend vanish, because someone discovered a better way.
sashank_15095 months ago
Fine maybe another 100 years we’re good. But what about 200, what about 1000. Copper is not water, there is no natural process that renews it. The question is, is it as ubiquitous as silicon that we will never run out of it compared to our demands or is it not.<p>If it is not, then we have a serious problem if we want human civilization to thrive and continue. The only solutions I can think of are, reaching a very high recycle rate, but we know from thermodynamics that chemical reactions are not reversible, but maybe we can build enough tech that we recycle everything very well and not just dump them in landfills.<p>Or we develop enough tech to be able to mine the asteroids, which can give us access to some minerals at amounts that would last us another 1000+ years. But not all minerals are found at asteroids, and it’s not clear if we can actually do this very hard task.<p>The final solution which seems to have fallen out of vogue but I’m in favor of is limiting human population. If everyone has 1 kid, human population halves in 1 generation. If we do this for 3-4 generations, we can reach a really good sustainable population, and then have 2 kids to maintain it.<p>I don&#x27;t understand this insane to me belief that we want to constantly grow human population. It seems to come from the belief that each human is an innovation robot, and that with more innovation robots we get more innovation. A cursory glance at humanity shows this to be obviously false. Humans need to be trained, taught, led to be able to produce something new. We have 10x more researchers now and scientific progress has still slowed compared to 1900s. Throwing more researchers into the mix will not fix it. People who run companies intuitively know this. If Google could invent AGI, by hiring 100,000 more AI engineers, they would do it in a heartbeat. Instead you find that talent density is extremely important for innovation. Small groups of exceptional talent, outperform large groups of mediocre talent always. There is a cost to cultivating talent in human beings and obviously with more humans it becomes more competitive and harder to cultivate talent in every human. There is a cost to coordinating between different humans and sifting through to find talent, that again increases the more humans are thrown into the mix.<p>This whole more humans are undeniably good always, is insane enough that only academics and those with no experience in the real world can convince themselves of it. There is obviously an optimal number of humans, you may disagree that it is higher or lower than the current number, but the number must exist! I suspect we are way more than optimal, ymmv.
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Thomashuet5 months ago
The main problem with this is that we&#x27;re looking at the evolution of inflation-adjusted prices for common ressources. By definition, inflation-adjusted prices for common ressources must be constant, that&#x27;s how we measure inflation. So it shouldn&#x27;t come as a surprise that the prices do not change much in the long term.
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leonhard5 months ago
&gt; The loss or gain for each metal was then summed up to get the total. If the total basket of metals had increased in price, Ehrlich had to pay. If it decreased, Simon had to pay.<p>I think this is the wrong way around, as the price dropped and that’s why Ehrlich lost and had to pay, no?
jmount5 months ago
For this stability one should consider the minerals are in fact setting the value of currency itself.
rkagerer5 months ago
I&#x27;d be curious about the results over 1000 years and 10,000 years. In the case of the latter I wonder if the concept of prices as we understand them today will even still be a thing.
magic_smoke_ee5 months ago
He was successful at marketing extreme FUD books in the late 60&#x27;s and early 70&#x27;s, kind of reminds me of &quot;the impending catastrophe&quot; doomer like Thom Hartmann. Heck, even Jim Morrison had an opinion on the subject.<p>The reality (WRT to bulk metals) is that we get some &quot;free passes&quot; due to mining technological advancements, and that increased scarcity -&gt; increased costs -&gt; curtails wastes, encourages recycling, and drives substitutes.<p>More generally, peak production isn&#x27;t a problem itself, per se. There is concern when there are risks for sudden shocks or collapse. If we suddenly ran out of phosphorous, that would be bad.<p>I think there is still a lot of waste that could be captured with cleverer engineering, especially ag runoff, in industrial process, and failure to capture material going into landfills. Perhaps in 100 years, we will be mining old landfills for rare earth metals.
ggm5 months ago
Love this. Ehrlich acted from good intent but with a bad case. I like this analysis saying the short term could have had Simons lose if the decade is chosen wrong, but the trend is with Simons.<p>A lot of battery related FUD recapitulates this, people mistake active mines for available reserves and available reserves for worldwide geology. We aren&#x27;t running out of the inputs to make batteries we&#x27;re in supply chain shock not resource limits.<p>Same with oil and peak oil. We&#x27;ll never run out of oil.
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ekianjo5 months ago
This only works if you consider the &quot;official inflation rate&quot;. We all know that the real inflation is often much higher so the charts would look very different over time.
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